Search Results
Working Paper
Welfare Implications of Asset Pricing Facts: Should Central Banks Fill Gaps or Remove Volatility?
I find that removing consumption volatility is a priority over filling the gap between consumption and its flexible-price counterpart, or inflation targeting, in a model that matches empirical measures of the welfare costs of consumption fluctuations. Nearly 30 years of financial market data suggest sizable welfare costs of fluctuations that can be decomposed into a term structure that is downward-sloping on average, especially during downturns. This evidence offers guidance in selecting a model to study the benefits of macroeconomic stabilization from a structural perspective. The addition ...
Discussion Paper
Tax Reform's Impact on Bank and Corporate Cyclicality
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is expected to increase after-tax profits for most companies, primarily by lowering the top corporate statutory tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. At the same time, the TCJA provides less favorable treatment of net operating losses and limits the deductibility of net interest expense. We explain how the latter set of changes may heighten bank and corporate borrower cyclicality by making bank capital and default risk for highly levered corporations more sensitive to economic downturns.
How PPP Loans Eluded Small Businesses of Color
Using national- and state-representative data from small business owners from the Federal Reserve System’s Small Business Credit Survey, we found that small business owners of color were in greater need of financial support than their white-owned counterparts, but they successfully accessed the PPP less frequently.
Working Paper
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges
This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic expansions. To some extent, financial crises are predictable and have severe real economic consequences when they occur. Empirically it is difficult to link monetary policy to financial vulnerabilities, in part because financial cycles have long durations, making it difficult to separate effects of changes in ...
Communities, Service Providers in Region See Long Road to COVID-19 Recovery, Fed Survey Shows
Nearly all respondents reported "significant" disruption to economic conditions in their communities, and over two-thirds anticipate a "difficult" economic recovery.
Greater Hispanic Outreach Can Improve Take-Up of Earned Income Tax Credit
Despite the Earned Income Tax Credit’s many benefits, a large percentage of qualified workers do not claim it.
Speech
Financial Stability Framework; Panel Remarks for the International Banking, Economics, and Finance Association and American Economic Association Session, \"Integrating Financial Stability with Monetary Policy\", Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, 01-06-2018; Philadelphia, PA
I will discuss four topics: the relationship between financial stability and monetary policy, the Federal Reserve?s current framework for assessing and monitoring financial stability risks, an exercise aimed to assess possible policy responses to such risk, and some of the governance issues we face in addressing these risks.
Lowest-Income Workers See Accelerated Earnings Growth During Pandemic
In many respects, the pandemic has disproportionately harmed low-income workers. Earnings growth, triggered by labor shortages and high turnover rates, could be a rare exception.
Federal and Local Resources Help Small Businesses Strive for New Normal
In May, we released an in-depth look at the experiences of small business owners across Texas in the first month of the crisis. In the subsequent months, there have been updates to existing resources, and more initiatives have launched to support small firms across the country and state.
Material Hardship and the CARES Act: Experiences of American Families
How did households use the aid provided by the CARES Act? Who had trouble accessing benefits? And in a polarized political climate, what did Americans think about the way the expanded safety net was offered—for themselves and their communities?