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Journal Article
FOMC Communication Spillovers: Is There a "Call-Out" Effect?
Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Gulati, Chaitri (2023-02-09)
Foreign asset prices may react to FOMC communication that references specific countries, but the effects are minimal.
Economic Review , Volume vol.108 , Issue no.1 , Pages 15

Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy during UBS Panel
Bullard, James B. (2021-11-09)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and monetary policy during a panel discussion at the UBS European Conference 2021.Bullard said he thinks that U.S. real GDP growth coming in softer than expected in the third quarter is “a temporary phenomenon,” with growth being pushed out to the fourth quarter and through next year. He expects real GDP growth to be higher than 4% for all of 2022.In discussing the very tight labor market in the U.S., Bullard cited the unemployment-to-vacancies ratio, the unemployment rate and a labor market ...
Speech

President Bullard Explains His Recent FOMC Dissent
Bullard, James B. (2022-03-18)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses why he cast a dissenting vote at the FOMC meeting in March 2022.
On the Economy

Speech
In Conversation: Mary C. Daly with UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics
Daly, Mary C. (2022-10-21)
Presentation at UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics, Berkeley, California, October 21, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2018-01-17)
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
What Is the Monetary Standard? The Fed Should Tell Us
Hetzel, Robert L. (2024-01-05)
The Federal Reserve System (Fed) is a regular feature in the media. When the Fed communicates with the public, its focus is on forward guidance related to monetary policy—specifically, for achieving low unemployment and low inflation. Fed participants on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convey what they see as the likely path of policy, including changes in the federal funds rate, a standard monetary policy tool. Because financial markets find this information useful, news stories thoroughly cover Fed communication.However, such communication fails to explain the structure of the ...
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 1 , Pages 10-39

Journal Article
Evaluating Quantitative Easing: The Importance of Accounting for Forward Guidance
Smith, Andrew Lee; Bundick, Brent (2022-06-30)
During the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, policymakers used large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) along with forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate to help stabilize financial markets. However, policymakers and economists have yet to reach a consensus on the efficacy of LSAPs in providing accommodation and improving macroeconomic outcomes. Because announced changes in LSAPs often coincide with changes in forward guidance, the market responses to these two tools can be difficult to disentangle and each tool’s efficacy challenging to evaluate.Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith ...
Economic Review , Volume 107 , Issue no.3 , Pages 16

Working Paper
The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options
Samadi, Mehrdad; Londono, Juan M. (2023-06)
Using recently available daily S&P 500 index option expirations, we examine the ex ante pricing of uncertainty surrounding key economic releases and the determinants of risk premia associated with these releases. The cost of insurance against price, variance, and downside risk is higher for options that span U.S. CPI, FOMC, Nonfarm Payroll, and GDP releases compared to neighboring expirations. We calculate release-driven forward equity and variance risk premia and find that premia vary considerably across economic releases and increase with risk aversion as well as with monetary policy and ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1376

Speech
Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead
Perli, Roberto (2024-05-08)
Remarks at 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech

Speech
Monetary Policy in Word and Deed
Mester, Loretta J. (2023-10-20)
I thank the Shadow Open Market Committee for inviting me to speak today. The SOMC is known for fostering an active exchange of diverse views on the economy and monetary policy, with the aim of contributing to better policy decisions. I believe robust policy discussions and deliberations are very constructive, and I am looking forward to the question-and-answer portion of this session. To help frame that discussion, let me start with a review of economic developments and my perspectives on monetary policy.
Speech

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