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Working Paper
Uncovered interest rate, overshooting, and predictability reversal puzzles in an emerging economy
By using realized and survey-based expected exchange rate data, the paper presents five key findings regarding the Uncovered Interest rate Parity (UIP) and related puzzles in an Emerging Market (EM). First, Fama regressions, when not accounting for shifts in the UIP relationship, yield slopes that are statistically identical to one, irrespective of whether survey-based expected exchange rates or realized exchange rates are used. Second, caution is necessary however, as our analysis identifies three distinct sub-periods within each exchange rate measure, each exhibiting varying levels of ...