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Showing results 1 to 5 of approximately 5.
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Working Paper
Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant
This paper estimates a time-varying reaction function of the median participant of the Federal Open Market Committee, using a Taylor rule with time-varying coefficients estimated on one- to three-year ahead median forecasts of the federal funds rate, inflation, and the unemployment rate from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods, incorporating the effective lower bound on the median federal funds rate projections. The results indicate that the monetary policy rule has become significantly more persistent after the pandemic than in the years ...
Discussion Paper
Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on August 9, 2011, was the first to incorporate language on “forward guidance” with an explicit date tied to the Committee’s expected path of monetary policy. In this post, we exploit the timing of surveys taken before and after this statement’s release to investigate how professional forecasters changed their expectations of growth, inflation, and monetary policy. We find that the average forecast of the federal funds rate shifts considerably and closely aligns with the new language in the statement, while the average ...
Speech
Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia
Remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Working Paper
Monetary Policy Uncertainty
We construct new measures of uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences - monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) indexes. We show that, under a variety of VAR identification schemes, positive shocks to uncertainty about monetary policy robustly raise credit spreads and reduce output. The effects are of comparable magnitude to those of conventional monetary policy shocks. We evaluate the usefulness of our MPU indexes, and examine the influence of Fed communication. Our analysis suggests that policy rate normalization that is accompanied by reduced uncertainty can help ...
Speech
Panel remarks at the Brookings Institution
Remarks at The Fed at a crossroads: Where to go next?, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.