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Working Paper
Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?
We use a consumption based asset pricing model to show that the predictability of excess returns on risky assets can arise from only two sources: (1) stochastic volatility of fundamental variables, or (2) departures from rational expectations that give rise to predictable investor forecast errors and market inefficiency. While controlling for stochastic volatility, we find that a variable which measures non-fundamental noise in the Treasury yield curve helps to predict 1-month-ahead excess stock returns, but only during sample periods that include the Great Recession. For these sample ...
Working Paper
A Likelihood-Based Comparison of Macro Asset Pricing Models
We estimate asset pricing models with multiple risks: long-run growth, long-run volatility, habit, and a residual. The Bayesian estimation accounts for the entire likelihood of consumption, dividends, and the price-dividend ratio. We find that the residual represents at least 80% of the variance of the price-dividend ratio. Moreover, the residual tracks most recognizable features of stock market history such as the 1990's boom and bust. Long run risks and habit contribute primarily in crises. The dominance of the residual comes from the low correlation between asset prices and consumption ...