Search Results
Working Paper
Explaining the energy consumption portfolio in a cross-section of countries: are the BRICs different?
This paper uses disaggregated data from a broad cross-section of countries to empirically assess differences in energy consumption profiles across countries. We find empirical support for the energy ladder hypothesis, which contends that as an economy develops it transits away from a heavier reliance on traditional fuel sources towards an increase in the use of modern commercial energy sources. We also find empirical support for the hypothesis that structural transformation--the idea that as an economy matures, it transforms away from agriculture-based activity into industrial activity and, ...
Speech
Energy and the economy
a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
Working Paper
Time-varying oil price volatility and macroeconomic aggregates
We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business-cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986?2011 and utilize the estimated process in a nonlinear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead ...
Newsletter
Household energy expenditures, 1982–2005
While energy's share of total expenditures has risen in recent years, it remains below the shares seen in the early and mid-1980s. Furthermore, the impact of the price increases on a household differs, based on the household's specific energy consumption patterns.
Journal Article
Energy and the economy
Speech
Energy and the U.S. macro economy
Wilmington Club, Wilmington, Del., July 24, 2007
Journal Article
Run over by gas
E85 is losing the battle with cheap gas, but promise for ethanol might lurk in other blends.
Journal Article
Energy markets and the Midwest economy
This article examines the effects of fuel prices on the Midwest economy. As a region that is still disproportionately reliant on manufacturing, the Midwest would be expected to feel the brunt of high energy costs. However, is this still the case, or has the impact been mitigated over time by the restructuring of the region?s economy? The author finds that the Midwest has followed the national pattern of decreasing reliance on energy to produce regional output, but still has a relatively high concentration of energy-intensive industries that, when combined with unfavorable weather conditions, ...
Journal Article
What drives diesel fuel prices?
Historically, gasoline has commanded a premium over diesel, but that changed in mid-to-late 2007, when diesel rose above gasoline. In 2007 and 2008, however, gasoline traded higher than diesel only 21.1 percent of the time. This deviation from historic norms raises an interesting question--what drives diesel prices? As with virtually all petroleum-derived products, the story begins with oil prices. Seasonal patterns also play a significant role. Demand for a range of oil-based products changes with the weather, and prices fluctuate as refiners adjust their output mix. Government regulations ...
Journal Article
Oil and gas rises again in a diversified Texas
The oil and gas industry has been a driver of the Texas economy for the past 40 years. Its contribution declined with the oil-led recession of 1986 and appeared to slip further in the 1990s as the high-tech industry boomed. But oil and natural gas prices have risen since 1999, reaching record highs in 2008. This resurgence has boosted energy activity and factored into the recent economic recovery in Texas, affirming the industry?s long-held prominence in the state. ; An econometric model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas documents the state?s evolving energy fortunes since the ...