Search Results
Working Paper
Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis
We undertake a real-time VAR analysis of the usefulness of the term spread, the junk-bond spread, the ISM's New Orders Index, and broker/dealer equity for predicting growth in non-farm employment. To get around the "apples and oranges" problem described by Koenig, Dolmas and Piger (2003), we augment each VAR we consider with a flexible state-space model of employment revisions. This methodology produces jobs forecasts consistently superior to those obtained using conventional VAR analysis. They are also superior to Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts and to median forecasts from the Survey ...
Journal Article
Family caregiver: balancing home and work
To meet the growing need for home health-care workers, policymakers will have to find ways to ensure that the jobs provide reasonable wages, good benefits, and a clear career path.
Working Paper
Job creation and housing construction: constraints on metropolitan area employment growth
Differences in the supply of housing generate substantial variation in housing prices across the United States. Because housing prices influence migration, the elasticity of housing supply also has an important impact on local labor markets. Specifically, an increase in labor demand will translate into less employment growth and higher wages in places where it is relatively difficult to build new houses. To identify metropolitan areas where the supply of housing is constrained, I assemble evidence on housing supply regulations from a variety of sources. In places with relatively few barriers ...
Journal Article
When things don't add up
Speech
Prospects for employment: evidence from prior recoveries.
Presentation by Eric S. Rosengren, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, for The Connecticut Business & Industry Association and the MetroHartford Alliance Economic Summit & Outlook 2010, Hartford, Connecticut, January 8, 2010
Journal Article
How well does employment predict output?
Economists, policymakers, and financial market analysts typically pay close attention to aggregate employment trends because employment is thought to be an important indicator of macroeconomic conditions. One difficulty is that there are two separate surveys of employment, which can diverge widely from one another, as the previous and current economic expansions demonstrate. The conventional wisdom is that, for assessing economic conditions, the survey that counts the number of jobs (establishment survey) is preferable to the survey that counts the number of people employed (household ...