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Working Paper
Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend
Durdu, Ceyhun Bora; Boz, Emine; Daude, Christian (2008)
The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an equilibrium business cycle model in which the agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks. When formulating expectations, they assign some probability to TFP shocks being permanent even when they are purely transitory. This is sufficient for the model ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 927

Speech
Beyond the crisis: reflections on the challenges
Checki, Terrence J. (2009)
Remarks at the Foreign Policy Association Corporate Dinner, New York City
Speech , Paper 8

Newsletter
Comrades or competitors? on trade relationships between China and emerging Asia
Loungani, Prakash; Fernald, John G. (2004-03)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Mar

Report
Globalized banks: lending to emerging markets in the crisis
Goldberg, Linda S.; Cetorelli, Nicola (2009)
As banking has become more globalized, so too have the consequences of shocks originating in home and host markets. Global banks can provide liquidity and risk-sharing opportunities to the host market in the event of adverse host-country shocks, but they can also have profound effects across international markets. Indeed, global banks played a significant role in the transmission of the current crisis to emerging-market economies. Flows between global banks and emerging markets include both cross-border lending, which has long been recognized as responding significantly to shocks at home or ...
Staff Reports , Paper 377

Report
Monetary policy under sudden stops
Curdia, Vasco (2007)
This paper proposes a model to investigate the effects of monetary policy in an emerging market economy that experiences a sudden stop of capital inflows. The model features credit frictions, debt denominated in foreign currency, imported inputs, and households that have access to the international capital market only indirectly, through their ownership of leveraged firms. The sudden stop is modeled as a change in the perceptions of foreign lenders that brings about an increase in the cost of borrowing. I show that the higher the elasticity of foreign demand, the lower the contraction in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 278

Working Paper
Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in emerging markets: does the cheapest-to-deliver option matter?
Cai, Fang; Ammer, John (2007)
We examine the relationships between credit default swap (CDS) premiums and bond yield spreads for nine emerging market sovereign borrowers. We find that these two measures of credit risk deviate considerably in the short run, due to factors such as liquidity and contract specifications, but we estimate a stable long-term equilibrium relationship for most countries. In particular, CDS premiums tend to move more than one-for-one with yield spreads, which we show is broadly consistent with the presence of a significant "cheapest-to-deliver" (CTD) option. In addition, we find a variety of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 912

Working Paper
How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets
Converse, Nathan L.; Levy Yeyati, Eduardo; Williams, Tomás (2020-01-17)
This paper examines how the growth of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has affected the sensitivity of international capital flows to global financial conditions. Using data on individual emerging market funds worldwide, we employ a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. We find that the sensitivity of flows to global financial conditions for equity (bond) ETFs is 2.5 (2.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. We then show that our findings have macroeconomic implications. In countries where ETFs ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1268

Working Paper
Contingent reserves management: an applied framework
Caballero, Ricardo J.; Panageas, Stavros (2004)
One of the most serious problems that a central bank in an emerging market economy can face is the sudden reversal of capital inflows. Hoarding international reserves can be used to smooth the impact of such reversals, but these reserves are seldom sufficient and always expensive to hold. In this paper we argue that adding richer hedging instruments to the portfolios held by central banks can significantly improve the efficiency of the anti-sudden stop mechanism. We illustrate this point with a simple quantitative hedging model, where optimally used options and futures on the S&P100?s implied ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-2

Working Paper
Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates
Banegas, Ayelen (2016-07)
This paper tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of 22 emerging market economies. We use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates. Results show that stock returns, the term spread, default spreads and portfolio investment flows help predict output growth in emerging markets. We also find evidence that suggests that global aggregates such as the performance of commodity markets, a cross-sectional firm size factor, and returns on the market portfolio ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1174

Working Paper
Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem: Credit Concentration in Bad Times
Agarwal, Sumit; Correa, Ricardo; Morais, Bernardo; Roldán, Jessica; Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia (2020-07-07)
How does a bank react when a substantial share of its borrowers suffer a large negative shock? To answer this question we exploit the 2014 collapse of energy prices using the universe of Mexican commercial bank loans. We show that, after the drop in energy prices, banks exposed to the energy sector increased their exposure to these borrowers even more, relaxing credit margins to their larger debtors in the sector. An increase of one standard deviation in a bank's ex-ante exposure to the energy sector increased the loan volume to borrowers in the sector by 18 percent and reduced interest rates ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1288

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