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Conference Paper
Emerging markets in financial globalization: striking the right balance for liberalization
Watanagase, Tarisa (2007)
Proceedings

Working Paper
Defaultable debt, interest rates, and the current account
Aguiar, Mark; Gopinath, Gita (2004)
World capital markets have experienced large-scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions, the most recent being Argentina?s default in 2002. In this paper, we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. That is, emerging markets on average borrow more in good times and at lower interest rates than in slumps. ...
Working Papers , Paper 04-5

Journal Article
Banking industry evolution along the Texas-Mexico border
Phillips, Keith R.; Lopez, Jose Joaquin (2007-07)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 11-13

Report
Partial Default
Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Mateos-Planas, Xavier; Arellano, Cristina (2019-07-09)
In the data sovereign default is always partial and varies in its duration. Debt levels during default episodes initially increase and do not experience reductions upon resolution. This paper presents a theory of sovereign default that replicates these properties, which are absent in standard sovereign default theory. Partial default is a flexible way to raise funds as the sovereign chooses its intensity and duration. Partial default is also costly because it amplifies debt crises as the defaulted debt accumulates and interest rate spreads increase. This theory is capable of rationalizing the ...
Staff Report , Paper 589

Working Paper
Measurement matters for modeling U.S. import prices
Marquez, Jaime R.; Thomas, Charles P. (2006)
We focus on capturing the increasingly important role that emerging economies play in determining U.S. import prices. Emerging market producers differ from others in two respects: (1) their cost structure is well below that of developed-market producers, and (2) their wide profit margins induce pricing policies that seek to exhaust production capacity. We argue that these features have dampened the short-run responses of import prices to changes in the value of the dollar but that they have not altered the associated long-run response. To capture these considerations, we develop a new method ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 883

Report
Monetary policy under sudden stops
Curdia, Vasco (2007)
This paper proposes a model to investigate the effects of monetary policy in an emerging market economy that experiences a sudden stop of capital inflows. The model features credit frictions, debt denominated in foreign currency, imported inputs, and households that have access to the international capital market only indirectly, through their ownership of leveraged firms. The sudden stop is modeled as a change in the perceptions of foreign lenders that brings about an increase in the cost of borrowing. I show that the higher the elasticity of foreign demand, the lower the contraction in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 278

Working Paper
Expansionary Austerity: Reallocating Credit Amid Fiscal Consolidation
Morais, Bernardo; Peydró, José-Luis; Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia (2021-08-04)
We study the impact of public debt limits on economic growth exploiting the introduction of a Mexican law capping the debt of subnational governments. Despite larger fiscal consolidation, states with higher ex-ante public debt grew substantially faster after the law, albeit at the expense of increased extreme poverty. Credit registry data suggests that the mechanism behind this result is a reduction in crowding out. After the law, banks operating in more indebted states reallocate credit away from local governments and into private firms. The unwinding of crowding out is stronger for riskier ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1323

Conference Paper
Role reversal in global finance
Prasad, Eswar S. (2011)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Conference Paper
Commentary” the future of economic convergence
Padoan, Pier Carlo (2011)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend
Durdu, Ceyhun Bora; Boz, Emine; Daude, Christian (2008)
The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an equilibrium business cycle model in which the agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks. When formulating expectations, they assign some probability to TFP shocks being permanent even when they are purely transitory. This is sufficient for the model ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 927

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