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Speech
The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy; 02.12.19; Financial Executives International and Xavier University, Cincinnati, OH
Many of you probably know that the Federal Reserve System comprises 12 regional Reserve Banks, distributed across the country, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. But we also have 24 branch offices. This regional structure helps us to collect information from around the country so that our monetary policy decisions can take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people. I am very grateful for the many contacts throughout the Cleveland Fed?s District who generously share with us their insights into business activity, labor markets, and financial conditions. This ...
Newsletter
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2017 Results and 2018 Forecasts
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace slightly above average in 2018, with inflation moving up a little and the unemployment rate remaining low.
Speech
U.S. Economic Outlook
Remarks by Michael H. Moskow President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. University Club of Chicago - Learn at Lunch Lecture - 76 E. Monroe St., Chicago, IL. A speech delivered on February 16, 2007 in Chicago, Illinois.
How Will COVID-19 Affect the Spending of Financially Distressed Households?
Consumer spending will drop substantially due to COVID-19, and the declines will hit hardest in households already in financial distress.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization
COVID-19 and attempts to slow its spread have led to a decline in economic activity unprecedented in both severity and speed. Although every part of the United States experienced dramatic decreases in activity, states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, with lower COVID-19 cases as a percentage of the population, have fared slightly better. More recently, national and regional measures of business and consumer activity have improved but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Journal Article
The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?
After an unprecedented decline from 2014 to 2016, the real price of oil more than doubled, renewing interest in the effects of oil price fluctuations on the U.S. economy. The oil sector has become increasingly important to the U.S. economy over the past decade, and total U.S. business fixed investment appears to have followed oil investment?s pattern in recent years. This positive correlation between oil prices and U.S. investment growth may be related to the surge in U.S. oil production known as the shale boom. {{p}} Nida ak?r Melek explores the effect of unexpected oil price changes (or ...
Journal Article
Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time
Measuring the current state of the U.S. economy in real time is an important but challenging task for monetary policymakers. The most comprehensive measure of the state of the economy?real gross domestic product?is available at a relatively low frequency (quarterly) and with a significant delay (one month). To obtain more timely assessments of the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has developed a GDP tracking model that combines new econometric methods with two conventional approaches to estimating GDP. {{p}} Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae review the Kansas City Fed ...
Discussion Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fifth District Economy
As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the country, Americans are taking measures to distance themselves from their communities, both voluntarily and by mandate. What measures have Fifth District jurisdictions taken and what might this mean for the Fifth District economy?
Speech
An Update on the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
In my remarks three years ago, I characterized 2019 as a year of transition for the economy and monetary policy. At that time, economic growth was expected to transition to a more sustainable pace after above-trend growth in 2018, and we were completing a monetary policy transition that had been underway for some time: a transition away from the emergency monetary policy settings needed in the wake of the Great Recession to more normal policy.Today, we are at the start of another monetary policy transition, this time away from the extraordinary accommodation that was necessary earlier in the ...
Speech
Perspectives on the U.S. economy and monetary policy
Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism; Global Interdependence Center; Banque de France; Paris, France President Charles Plosser offers his views on growth, unemployment, and inflation expectations. He also discusses why the Fed faces a communications challenge with the economy so close to the unemployment threshold of 6.5 percent. He gave similar remarks on March 6 in London.