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Journal Article
Strong peso, stubborn inflation cloud Mexico’s 2024 growth prospects
Mexican economic performance is likely to slow in 2024, with stubborn inflation, rising labor costs and a strong peso posing downside risks. Conversely, nearshoring and a larger-than-expected fiscal impact could bolster the Mexican outlook.
Working Paper
Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance
The seeds of financial imbalances are sown in times of buoyant economic growth. We study the link between macroeconomic performance and financial imbalances, focusing on the experience of the United States since the 1960s. We first follow a narrative approach to review historical episodes of significant financial imbalances and find that the onset of financial disturbances typically occurs when the economy is running hot. We then look for evidence of a statistical link between measures of macroeconomic conditions and financial imbalances. In our in-sample analysis, we find that strong ...