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Journal Article
International business cycles: G7 and OECD countries
Yu, Chengxuan; Chauvet, Marcelle (2006-01-01)
The progressive globalization of markets has sparked a worldwide interest in using economic indicators to analyze cyclical fluctuations. Governments and the private sector seeking to conduct their activities in light of both national and international economic conditions could benefit from international indicators that serve as a warning system to detect recessions in major economic partners and in industrialized countries as a whole. ; This article constructs just such a warning system. Using a Markov-switching dynamic factor model with a self-adjusting variable-bandwidth filter, the authors ...
Economic Review , Volume 91 , Issue Q 1 , Pages 43-54

Journal Article
Transparency, expectations and forecasts
Waggoner, Daniel F.; Eisenbeis, Robert A.; Zha, Tao; Bauer, Andrew (2006-01-01)
Many economists believe that a central bank?s transparency about its objectives, economic outlook, and policy changes affect the public?s views about future economic and financial conditions. In keeping with this theory, since 1994 the Federal Open Market Committee has gradually increased the transparency of its statements accompanying changes in the federal funds rate target. ; This article investigates whether private agents? ability to predict the economy?s direction has improved since 1994. The analysis focuses on forecasts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, gross domestic ...
Economic Review , Volume 91 , Issue Q 1 , Pages 1-25

Journal Article
The news in financial asset returns
Robotti, Cesare; Dwyer, Gerald P. (2004-01-01)
The notion that financial asset returns are predictors of future economic activity is widespread, but detailed analyses provide little support for financial markets? ability to reveal future economic activity. Even though the evidence on various indicators used by different researchers is mixed, the authors of this article explore the notion that financial markets reveal useful information about future economic activity. ; This article examines and answers two questions: First, what is a good way of extracting information about future economic activity from asset prices? Second, do financial ...
Economic Review , Volume 89 , Issue Q 1 , Pages 1 - 23

Journal Article
Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank (2003-10)
During the past two decades, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have taken center stage in academic macroeconomics. Nonetheless, these models are still rarely used in policy-making and forecasting. ; This article describes the workings of the DSGE-VAR, a procedure that combines DSGE models and vector autoregressions (VARs). The procedure uses DSGE models as priors to restrict the VAR?s parameters. Since the VAR?s parameters are imprecisely estimated unless a very long time series of data is available, using DSGE priors can improve the VAR?s forecasting performance. Moreover, ...
Economic Review , Volume 88 , Issue Q4 , Pages 35-50

Journal Article
The Southeastern economy in 2009: region hopes for turnaround
anonymous (2008)
Many components of the Southeastern economy went south in 2008: Food and energy prices rose, the once-hot real estate market stumbled, and employment fell. A region whose economy had enjoyed years of robust growth finds itself mired in recession, and things could get worse in 2009 before they get better.
EconSouth , Volume 10 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Global economies anticipate a tepid 2009
Alexeenko, Galina (2008)
The long global economic expansion hit the wall in 2008 as financial markets worldwide slumped and many advanced and developing economies experienced slower growth or recession. Few expect a recovery to be swift, and 2009 could see slow growth persist.
EconSouth , Volume 10 , Issue 4

Journal Article
After rocky 2008, U.S. consumers seek stable ground in 2009
Kollen, Sandra; Robertson, John C. (2008)
An economy besieged on a number of fronts in 2008 staggers into 2009 with rising unemployment, falling house prices, and strained financial markets. A recessionary environment poses formidable challenges for U.S. consumers in the coming year.
EconSouth , Volume 10 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Guynn foresees solid growth for 2006 but cites long-term challenges
anonymous (2006-01-01)
While the economy should remain on a sustainable growth path in 2006, Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn said the nation needs to focus now on issues that may hamper future growth.
Financial Update , Volume 19 , Issue Q 1

Journal Article
Lockhart: weak first half of 2008 followed by improvement
anonymous (2008)
In a recent speech, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said that economic uncertainty brings expectations of a weak first half of 2008?but one with gradual improvement beginning later in the year.
Financial Update , Volume 21 , Issue 1

Journal Article
Lockhart: balance of risk has shifted to slower growth
anonymous (2007)
Recent volatility in financial markets shifted the balance of economic risks from higher inflation toward slower growth, Atlanta Fed President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis P. Lockhart said in a recent speech.
Financial Update , Volume 20 , Issue 4

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