Search Results
Speech
The national and regional economic outlook
Remarks at the Center for Economic Development, Syracuse, New York.
Speech
Economic Conditions in New York State
In-person presentation for the 2025 Economic Forecast & Building BC Awards for the Greater Binghamton Chamber of Commerce, delivered by Jaison Abel, Head of Microeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Journal Article
Tourism's role in the upstate New York economy
We begin with a broad discussion of how tourism has emerged as a force in the U.S. and regional economies. We follow with an examination of the industry's size and growth in upstate New York. We also show that the state's rural economy is generally more dependent on tourism than are its metro areas. Finally, despite its size, upstate New York's tourism industry is growing faster than the overall economies of Dutchess Country, Glens Falls, Jamestown, and Binghamton - thus making the industry an increasingly important contributor to growth.
Journal Article
The upstate economy under the new NAICS classification system
We examine the composition of the upstate New York economy as reflected by the new NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) classifications, and explain how this new perspective changes our understanding of the economy. In addition, given the importance of manufacturing to upstate New York, we examine in detail the manufacturing sector under the new NAICS classification.
Journal Article
The information technology industry in New York State
We assess the prominence of the IT industry in New York State. We calculate the concentration of IT industry jobs in the state relative to the nation and identify the IT businesses that figure most importantly in new York's large metropolitan areas.
Report
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...
Journal Article
Small businesses in upstate New York rank barriers to growth
The Buffalo Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Center for Governmental Research (CGR) surveyed small businesses in western and central New York State. The object of the survey was to identify what small business owners perceive to be the chief barriers to the growth of their companies. We provide an overview of the survey and its findings. The barriers to growth cited in upstate New York are similar to those cited nationwide: nonwage worker costs, state and federal taxes, and energy costs. Small business owners also see several advantages to their upstate New York ...
Journal Article
Economic restructuring in western New York State
We explore the distinctive patterns of Buffalo and Rochester's economic restructuring in detail. We compare the board structural changes in Buffalo's economy with those in Rochester's, and the changes in both metropolitan economies with those in the national economy. We also seek to understand the roots of these changes through an analysis of industry-level data. We find that although Buffalo and Rochester remain highly dependent on goods production and distribution, both cities have followed the national trend away from goods producing industries and toward service industries.
Speech
The national and regional economic outlook
Remarks at the Buffalo-Niagara Partnership, Buffalo, New York .
Journal Article
Population out-migration from Upstate New York
We identify the nature and extent of the out-migration from the upper New York State region and examine its economic impact. Our analysis begins with an explanation for the outflow. Next, we describe population growth trends and estimate the extent of the out-migration. We conclude by showing how out-migration is reshaping upstate New York's economy and demographics, and is resulting in limited growth and a population that is aging faster than most U.S. populations.