Search Results
Working Paper
Regional business cycle phases in Japan
This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for 1976-2005. An early 1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the spread between the two phases. Although recessions tended to be experienced across a majority of regions throughout the sample period, the occurrence and lengths of recessions at the regional level have increased over time.
Journal Article
Regional business cycle phases in Japan
This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for the period 1976-2005. An early-1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the spread between the two phases. Although recessions tended to be experienced across a majority of regions throughout the sample period, the occurrence and lengths of recessions at the regional level have increased over time.
Journal Article
The Japanese edge in investment: the financial side
An argument that the Japanese investment advantage over the United States results largely from lower pre-tax required rates of return and lower agency costs of debt in Japan, rather than from a less-burdensome tax code.
Journal Article
How big is Japan's debt?
Working Paper
The great inflation and early disinflation in Japan and Germany
This paper considers the Great Inflation of the 1970s in Japan and Germany. From 1975 onward, these countries had low inflation relative to other large economies. Traditionally, this success is attributed to stronger discipline on the part of Japan and Germany?s monetary authorities?for example, more willingness to accept temporary unemployment, or greater determination not to monetize government deficits. I instead attribute the success of these countries from the mid-1970s to their governments? and monetary authorities? acceptance that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Likewise their ...
Journal Article
Foreign exchange and the liquidity trap
When short-term interest rates hover near zero, central banks may have difficulty offsetting downward momentum on prices and economic activity through traditional monetary-policy channels, since commercial banks have little incentive to make loans. Economists refer to this situation as a liquidity trap. Do exchange rate targets and foreign exchange operations, as some have suggested, offer a way to escape such a trap?
Speech
Lessons at the zero bound: the Japanese and U.S. experience
Remarks at the Japan Society, New York City.
Journal Article
Japan's shock treatment
Journal Article
Economic conditions in Korea and Japan: a monetary policymaker's report
Each year, the President of the San Francisco Fed joins the Federal Reserve Board Governor responsible for liaison with Asia on a "fact-finding" trip to the region. These trips advance the Bank's broad objectives of serving as a repository of expertise on economic, banking, and financial issues relating to the Pacific Basin and of building ties with policymakers and economic officials there. The knowledge gained and the contacts developed are valuable in understanding trends affecting the Twelfth District, in carrying out responsibilities in banking supervision, and in ensuring that ...