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Periodic Essay
China: an evolving housing market
Journal Article
China’s economic emergence
China is no longer the sleeping giant of yore. The country is showing its rapidly growing economic clout especially in the trade arena, where it has become the world?s third-largest trading nation.
Journal Article
Is China due for a slowdown?
Many analysts have predicted that a Chinese economic slowdown is inevitable because the country is approaching the per capita income at which growth in other countries began to decelerate. However, China may escape such a slowdown because of its uneven development. An analysis based on episodes of rapid expansion in four other Asian countries suggests that growth in China?s more developed provinces may slow to 5.5% by the close of the decade. But growth in the country?s less-developed provinces is expected to run at a robust 7.5% pace.
Journal Article
The economic rise of China: threat or opportunity?
China's economy is opening up to the outside world. This worries those who fear the huge pool of low-cost labor will drain jobs from U.S. shores, and less expensive goods will spark trade problems. The author points out that China's untapped market presents huge opportunities for U.S. businesses that would surely outweigh any loss of jobs, and also that the sort of jobs that would move to China left the U.S. a long time ago. And with respect to fair trading practices, China has made much progress.
Working Paper
China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?
We explore whether increases in China?s exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies. We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though often not significantly so), even after controlling for the effects of income growth of trading partners and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in the determination of Asian export growth. An important finding is that, while exchange ...
Newsletter
China up close: understanding the Chinese economy and financial system (special issue)
In March 2007, the authors paid a weeklong visit to Beijing and Shanghai, China. In this article, they summarize some of the most striking impressions from their visit concerning the Chinese economy and financial system.
Journal Article
Update on China: a monetary policymaker's report
Each year, the President of the San Francisco Fed joins the Federal Reserve Board Governor responsible for liaison with Asia on a "fact-finding" trip to the region. These trips advance the Bank's broad objectives of serving as a repository of expertise on economic, banking, and financial issues relating to the Pacific Basin and of building ties with policymakers and economic officials there. The knowledge gained and the contacts developed are critical in understanding trends affecting the Twelfth District, in carrying out responsibilities in banking supervision, and in ensuring that ...
Journal Article
Can rising housing prices explain China’s high household saving rate?
China?s average household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast-rising housing prices and other living costs in China. This article uses simple economic logic to show that rising housing prices and living costs per se cannot explain China?s high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can help translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations using Chinese data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs contribute ...
Journal Article
The great Chinese housing boom
Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.
Working Paper
Can rising housing prices explain China’s high household saving rate?
China?s average household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast rising housing prices and other costs of living in China. This article uses simple economic logic to show that rising housing prices and living costs per se cannot explain China?s high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can help translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations using Chinese data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs ...