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Working Paper
The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model
We extend Lubik and Schorfheide's (2004) likelihood-based estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models under indeterminacy to encompass a sample period including both determinacy and indeterminacy by implementing the change-point methodology (Chib, 1998). The most striking finding about the indeterminacy regime, which is estimated to coincide with the Great Inflation of the 1970s, is that it exhibits the price puzzle, in that the inflation rate rises immediately and in a sustained manner following a positive interest rate shock. Thus, the price puzzle might have been a ...
Working Paper
How robust are popular models of nominal frictions?
This paper analyzes three popular models of nominal price and wage frictions to determine which best fits post-war U.S. data. We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and use maximum likelihood to estimate each model's parameters. Because previous research finds that the conduct of monetary policy and the behavior of inflation changed in the early 1980s, we examine two distinct sample periods. Using a Bayesian, pseudo-odds measure as a means for comparison, a sticky price and wage model with dynamic indexation best fits the data in the early-sample period, whereas ...
Working Paper
Predictive density construction and accuracy testing with multiple possibly misspecified diffusion models
This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, the authors first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. Then, they construct accuracy assessment tests that are in the spirit of Diebold and Mariano (1995) and White (2000). In order to establish the asymptotic properties of their tests, the authors also develop a recursive variant of the nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood estimator of Fermanian and ...
Working Paper
Predicting the effects of Federal Reserve policy in a sticky-price model: an analytical approach
In this paper, I characterize equilibria for a sticky-price model in which Federal Reserve policy is an interest-rate rule similar to that described in Taylor (1993). For standard preferences and technologies used in the literature, the model predicts that the nominal interest rate is negatively serially correlated, and that shocks to interest rates imply a potentially large but short-lived response in output. Shocks to government spending and technology lead to persistent changes in output but the percentage change in output is predicted to be smaller than the percentage changes in spending ...
