Search Results
Journal Article
Firmer monetary policy
Journal Article
Monetary policy: measurement and management
Journal Article
The Mexican economic crisis: alternative views
The authors of this article suggest that many of the explanations for the 1994 crisis are based on questionable assumptions and dubious analysis. They contend that, when trying to explain the crisis, most authors have concentrated on the wrong economic "fundamentals." They challenge the conventional view that the crisis was caused by a combination of flawed fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. Their explanation for the crisis belongs in an alternative camp that emphasizes the vulnerability of the Mexican financial system to swings in expectations and investor confidence. ; In their ...
Journal Article
Depreciation = inflation?
Report
Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks
This paper presents a model in which currency crises can spread across countries as a result of the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants. An incomplete-information approach is used to overcome many undesirable features of existing multiple-equilibrium explanations of contagion. If speculators expect contagion across markets to occur, they have an incentive to trade in both currency markets to take advantage of this correlation. These actions, in turn, link the two markets in such a way that a sharp devaluation of one currency will be propagated to the other market, fulfilling the ...
Working Paper
Banking and currency crises and systemic risk: a taxonomy and review
Many countries have experienced banking and currency crises in recent years. Although these crises appear to share many common causes and consequences, they have generally been analysed by different sets of economists. This paper develops a common framework, applies this framework to analysing recent crises, evaluates the historical evidence, and suggests potential solutions. Governments are identified as one of the major causes of the crises through first providing poorly structured financial guarantees that both increase fragility and misallocate resources, then pursuing unstable ...
Journal Article
The Mexican peso crisis
Hoping to avoid an economic slowdown during 1994, Mexico tried to maintain its quasi-pegged exchange rate while limiting monetary tightening by engaging in massive sterilized intervention-a policy that is not sustainable for long. The ultimate result was a collapse of the exchange rate, soaring interest rates, and probably a far worse recession than would have occurred if monetary policy had been tightened. ; The author of this article asks whether Mexican policy mistakes made devaluation of the peso inevitable, considering particularly Mexico's policy actions during 1994-as well as options ...
Journal Article
The giant sucking sound: did NAFTA devour the Mexican peso?
Five years of economic reforms had made Mexico a model for other developing nations by the end of 1993, when Mexico was preparing to enter into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and the United States. But less than a year later, in December 1994, Mexico experienced a severe financial crisis, forcing it to borrow from the IMF and the United States. Some commentators blamed the enactment of NAFTA for the devaluation of the peso and the ensuing economic turmoil in Mexico, with some calling for renegotiation or even repeal of the agreement. Author Christopher J. Neely ...
Journal Article
The tequila effect