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Speech
Demographics, redistribution, and optimal inflation
May 30, 2012. "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation," with Carlos Garriga and Christopher J. Waller. Presented by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance.
Working Paper
Inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero
This paper discusses the likely evolution of U.S. inflation in the near and medium term on the basis of (1) past U.S. experience with very low levels of inflation, (2) the most recent Japanese experience with deflation, and (3) recent U.S. micro evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity. Our findings question the view that stable long-run inflation expectations and downward nominal wage rigidity will provide sufficient support to prices such that deflation can be avoided. We show that an inflation model fitted on Japanese data over the past 20 years, which accounts for both short- and ...
Journal Article
Japanese deflation loses something in the translation
Speech
Lessons at the zero bound: the Japanese and U.S. experience
Remarks at the Japan Society, New York City.
Journal Article
Issues in economics: what is the cost of deflation?
A steady decline in the core rate of inflation over the past few years has prompted the question: What are the economic consequences when the inflation rate drops below zero?
Journal Article
U.S. historical experience with deflation
The severe contractions and deflationary episodes that followed 19th century U.S. banking crises have shaped the U.S. perception of deflation.
Working Paper
The optimal inflation target in an economy with limited enforcement
We formulate the central bank's problem of selecting an optimal long-run inflation rate as the choice of a distorting tax by a planner who wishes to maximize discounted utility for a heterogeneous population of infinitely-lived households in an economy with constant aggregate income. Households are divided into cash agents, who store value in currency alone, and credit agents who have access to both currency and loans. The planner's problem is equivalent to choosing inflation and nominal rates consistent with a resource constraint along with an incentive constraint that ensures credit agents ...
Journal Article
Deflation, corrosive and otherwise
Journal Article
The postwar price problem: inflation or deflation
Speech
Flation
Presentation to the International Mass Retail Association (IMRA), Scottsdale, Ariz. - Jan. 21, 2002