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Journal Article
Forecasting the effects of reduced defense spending
Forecasts from a vector autoregressive model indicate that the substantial cuts in defense spending proposed by the Bush Administration in 1991 are likely to reduce GNP in both the short run and the long run. These forecasts hold even if proceeds from the spending cuts are used to reduce the federal debt. The long-range VAR forecasts, in particular, contrast markedly with those of the large-scale econometric models employed by the Congressional Budget Office.
Working Paper
Growth, political instability, and the defense burden
This paper develops a model to examine the economic effects of political instability and military expenditure. In the model, "kleptocracies" use defense as "imperfect" insurance against the probability of being overthrown. Increasing defense has a secondary effect of augmenting the human capital stock (a spin-off effect). However, defense investment comes at the expense of consuming scarce resources (a crowding out effect). The paper's central contribution is to model each of these effects and their relationship to one another. The resulting theory predicts that the equilibrium is Pareto ...
Journal Article
Defense cuts foreseen
Journal Article
Defense spending flies high in the Southeast
Journal Article
The national defense boost in rural America
Journal Article
The impact of the current defense build-down
For the third time since the end of World War II, the United States is engaged in a long-term defense build-down. This article provides a broad macroeconomic overview of the current build-down relative to the build-downs following the Korean War and the Vietnam War. In addition, the authors examine regional and industrial impacts of cuts in defense spending.
Journal Article
Defense cutbacks and the New England economy
Defense is a regrettable expenditure. Like law enforcement and insurance, defense spending may be necessary but intrinsically it does not make us feel better off in the same way as, for example, housing, transportation services, and education. Thus the reductions in East- West tensions that enable us to allocate more dollars to items that directly improve living standards should be welcome. ; Nevertheless, adjustment to a lower level of defense spending has costs. Reduced demand for defense services will cause disruptions for defense-oriented companies and their workers. Concern is especially ...
Journal Article
Brown says some defense firms must refocus to survive
Journal Article
The economic consequences of reducing military spending