Search Results
Working Paper
Determinants and consequences of mortgage default
We study a unique data set of borrower-level credit information from TransUnion, one of the three major credit bureaus, which is linked to a database containing detailed information on the borrowers? mortgages. We find that the updated credit score is an important predictor of mortgage default in addition to the credit score at origination. However, the 6-month change in the credit score also predicts default: A positive change in the credit score significantly reduces the probability of delinquency or foreclosure. Next, we analyze the consequences of default on a borrower?s credit score. The ...
Journal Article
New technology makes small business credit more available
Working Paper
The diffusion of financial innovations: an examination of the adoption of small business credit scoring by large banking organizations
Financial innovation has been described as the ?life blood of efficient and responsive capital markets.? Yet, there have been few quantitative investigations of financial innovation and the diffusion of these new technologies. Of the latter, there have been only three prior quantitative studies, and all three used the same data set on automated teller machines! ; This paper makes a significant contribution to the financial innovation literature by examining the diffusion of a recent important innovation of the 1990s: banks? use of credit scoring for small business lending. The authors examine ...
Working Paper
Does credit scoring produce a disparate impact?
The widespread use of credit scoring in the underwriting and pricing of mortgage and consumer credit has raised concerns that the use of these scores may unfairly disadvantage minority populations. A specific concern has been that the independent variables that comprise these models may have a disparate impact on these demographic groups. By "disparate impact" we mean that a variable's predictive power might arise not from its ability to predict future performance within any demographic group, but rather from acting as a surrogate for group membership. Using a unique source of data that ...
Journal Article
Rollout of FACTA complete
Journal Article
Credit scoring in small business lending: bane or blessing?
Conference Paper
Credit scoring and securitization of small business loans
Journal Article
Consolidation, technology, and the changing structure of banks' small business lending
The U.S. banking industry continues to consolidate, with large, complex banking organizations becoming more important. Traditionally, these institutions have not emphasized small business lending. On the other hand, technological advances, particularly credit scoring models, make it easier for banks to extend small business credit. To see what effects these influences might have generated on small business lending, David Ely and Kenneth Robinson explore the small business lending patterns at U.S. banks from 1994 through 1999. They find that larger banks are increasing their market share, ...
Discussion Paper
Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from a lender cutoff rule
Credit score cutoff rules result in very similar potential borrowers being treated differently by mortgage lenders. Recent research has used variation induced by these rules to investigate the connection between securitization and lender moral hazard in the recent financial crisis. However, the conclusions of such research depend crucially on understanding the origin of these cutoff rules. We offer an equilibrium model in which cutoff rules are a rational response of lenders to per-applicant fixed costs in screening. We then demonstrate that our theory fits the data better than the main ...