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U.S. Labor Market Slack Created by COVID-19 Pandemic Has Been Absorbed
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2021-10-07)
The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

Briefing
COVID Transfers Dampening Employment Growth, but Not Necessarily a Bad Thing
Schwartzman, Felipe (2021-11)
Overall employment levels have remained below their pre-pandemic level and are growing only slowly despite rising wages and vacancies. In this Economic Brief, we examine whether historically high government support may have empowered workers to pull back from labor markets. While that support presents a clear benefit to recipients, a simple calculation based on recent estimates indicates that transfers of close to $2 trillion to households approved over the course of 2020 and 2021 implies a reduction of 0.58 percentage points in the employment-to-population ratio.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 39

Labor Shortages, Supply Chain Woes Slow Texas Recovery
Assanie, Laila; Crocker, Carlee (2021-06-24)
The Texas economy is on the path to a solid recovery, although the pace of growth has eased since March, recent data suggest.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
1CFI COVID-19 Survey of Consumers — Employment, Income, and Financial Security as of October 2021
Akana, Tom (2021-12-21)
This report shares results from Wave 10 of a national survey of consumers investigating the effects of COVID-19 on employment and income data, including employment through the crisis, income changes and expectations for income in 2021, and financial security over the next three to 12 months.
Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports

What Might Inflation Look Like Next Year?
Atkinson, Tyler; Danziger, Jonah; Richter, Alexander W. (2021-10-14)
In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Gauging the Sentiment of Federal Open Market Committee Communications through the Eyes of the Financial Press
Banerjee, Shantanu; Cordova, Paul; De Pooter, Michiel; Grishchenko, Olesya V. (2025-07-07)
We apply natural language processing tools to news articles in the financial press to construct a sentiment index—an index of the perceived semantic orientation of monetary policy communications around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. To that end, we develop several dictionaries that capture various monetary policy tools: conventional monetary policy, asset purchases, and forward guidance. The surprises in the sentiment index around FOMC meetings announcements explain variation in major asset prices classes between May 1999 and November 2022. Sentiment index ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-048

Journal Article
Banking Trends Regulatory Changes and Community Banks During COVID
Elliott, PJ (2022-11-10)
Small banks that received capital relief appear to have been more resilient.
Banking Trends

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