Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 34.
(refine search)
Briefing
Understanding the \\"job-loss recovery\\"
This Public Policy Brief presents analysis of the labor market by economic research staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. It is based on materials originally presented to the Board of Directors of the Boston Fed on April 8, 2004, with selective updates incorporating data reported in early June. Contributors to this brief include David DeRemer, Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, Kristina Johnson, Jane Sneddon Little, Radoslav Raykov, Scott Schuh, Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, Robert Triest, and Anne van Grondelle. Views expressed in this brief do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve System.
Working Paper
End of an era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns
I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period's exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly ...
Working Paper
Exhuming Q: market power capital market imperfections
Evidence of the statistical significance of profits in Q regressions remains one of the principal findings in the empirical investment literature. This result is frequently taken to support the view that capital market imperfections are an important element for understanding investment. This paper challenges that conclusion. We argue that allowing the profit function at the firm level to be strictly concave, reflecting, for example, market power, is sufficient to replicate the Q theory based regression results in which profits are a significant factor determining investment. To be clear, our ...
Journal Article
Are high-quality firms also high-quality investments?
The relationship between corporate reputation and investment results is the subject of ongoing debate. Some argue that high-quality firms ultimately provide superior stock price performance; others counter that stock prices already reflect these firms' prospects for growth and profitability. This study advances the debate by providing fresh evidence that investing in high-quality firms yields above-average returns and that these superior returns continue for up to five years.
Report
Turbulent firms, turbulent wages?
Has greater turbulence among firms fueled rising wage instability in the United States? Earlier research by Gottschalk and Moffitt shows that rising earnings instability was responsible for one-third to one-half of the rise in wage inequality during the 1980s. These growing transitory fluctuations remain largely unexplained. To help fill this gap, this paper further documents the recent rise in transitory fluctuations in compensation and investigates its linkage to the concurrent rise in volatility of firm performance documented in research by Comin and Mulani and others. ; After examining ...
Report
Firm value and cross-listings: the impact of stock market prestige
This study investigates the valuation impact of a firm?s decision to cross-list on a more (or less) prestigious stock exchange relative to its own domestic market. We use network analysis to derive broad market-based measures of prestige for forty-five country or regional stock exchange destinations between 1990 and 2006. We find that firms cross-listing in a more prestigious market enjoy significant valuation gains over the five-year period following the listing. We also document a reverse effect for firms cross-listing in less prestigious markets: These firms experience a significant ...
Journal Article
Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates
Conference Paper
Hail! Seekers of the golden fleece
Report
Compositional dynamics and the performance of the U.S. banking industry
As the U.S. banking industry continuously evolves, changes in industry composition have a direct impact on the aggregate performance of the industry. This paper presents a new decomposition framework for commercial banks and shows that both firm-level changes and dynamic reallocation effects--due to increased market share of successful banks, exit of poor performers, and new entrants--made substantial contributions to changes in profitability and capitalization of the U.S. banking industry from 1976 to 1998. In periods of declining profits, these reallocations were particularly important, ...
Journal Article
Has long-run profitability risen in the 1990s
This article analyzes the recent rebound in nonfinancial corporate profitability, as measured by after-tax profits as a share of output. Virtually all the resurgence in corporate profitability during the 1990s reflects a cyclical increase in profits and a decline in net interest expense associated with deleveraging and lower interest rates. In this sense, it is not clear that a long lasting upward shift in the economic returns to capital has occurred, after accounting for short-run cyclical-related movements and for how deleveraging and lower interest rates have shifted capital payments away ...