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Speech
Improving the measurement of inflation expectations
Potter, Simon M. (2012)
Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.
Speech , Paper 84

Newsletter
What are the implications of rising commodity prices for inflation and monetary policy?
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Evans, Charles L. (2011-05)
The recent run-ups in oil and other commodity prices and their implications for inflation and monetary policy have grabbed the attention of many commentators in the media. Clearly, higher prices of food and energy end up in the broadest measures of consumer price inflation, such as the Consumer Price Index. Since the mid-1980s, however, sharp increases and decreases in commodity prices have had little, if any, impact on core inflation, the measure that excludes food and energy prices.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Working Paper
Measuring housing services inflation
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Voith, Richard; Crone, Theodore M. (1999)
Recent papers have questioned the accuracy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' methodology for measuring implicit rents for owner-occupied housing. The authors propose cross-checking the BLS statistics by using data on owner-occupied and rental housing from the American Housing Survey. A hedonic approach that explicitly calculates capitalization rates appears to be a feasible one for developing a methodologically consistent measure of the rental cost of owner-occupied housing.
Working Papers , Paper 99-9

Journal Article
Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers
Fernald, John G.; Wang, Stephanie (2005)
A familiar old saw about the conduct of monetary policy is that it's like trying to drive a car while looking only in the rearview mirror. The idea is that policymakers are trying to steer a course that will keep the economy close to full employment with low, stable inflation, while their only knowledge of the road ahead is based on data about the past. ; As if this situation weren't challenging enough, the rearview mirror sometimes gives a distorted reflection, in the sense that the data policymakers see at any one point in time are often later revised. This Economic Letter discusses a ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Measurement errors and quality-adjustment methodology: lessons from the Japanese CPI
Shiratsuka, Shigenori (1999-04)
This article examines the problems inherent in quality changes/new goods bias in the Consumer Price Index, using the Japanese case as an example. The author proposes a practical way to improve the accuracy of quality adjustments by introducing the hedonic approach to the conventional procedure.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 23 , Issue Q II

Journal Article
Forecasting inflation? Target the middle
Zaman, Saeed; Meyer, Brent; Venkatu, Guhan (2013-04)
The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future infl ation. But it?s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC?s preferred measure, than the core PCE.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
The inflation issue
anonymous (2011-04)
Over the long term, steady job growth requires low and stable inflation. In this special issue of Forefront, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto explains why price stability is essential for maximum employment and how the adoption of a numerical target for inflation may improve the central bank?s ability to achieve both objectives.
Forefront , Issue Spring , Pages 1-32

Journal Article
Quality change in the CPI - commentary
Gordon, Robert J. (1997-05)
Review , Issue May , Pages 101-106

Journal Article
Drought 1988: farmers and the macroeconomy
Smith, Hilary H. (1988-09)
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Sep , Pages 15-22

Working Paper
Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation
Clark, Todd E. (2003)
This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the distribution of persistence across consumption sectors; and (iii) whether persistence has changed. Assuming mean inflation to be unchanged within samples, the average persistence of disaggregate inflation is consistently below aggregate persistence. Taking into account an early 1990s shift in mean inflation identified by break tests?including tests applied to systems of disaggregate equations?yields much lower estimates of ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 03-11

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