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Working Paper
Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated
Nominal interest rates are unlikely to be generated by unit-root processes. Using data on short and long interest rates from eight developed and six emerging economies, we test the expectations hypothesis using cointegration methods under the assumption that interest rates are near integrated. If the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected, we then test whether the estimated cointegrating vector is consistent with that suggested by the expectations hypothesis. The results show support for cointegration in ten of the fourteen countries we consider, and the cointegrating vector is ...
Working Paper
Linear cointegration of nonlinear time series with an application to interest rate dynamics
We derive a definition of linear cointegration for nonlinear stochastic processes using a martingale representation theorem. The result shows that stationary linear cointegrations can exhibit nonlinear dynamics, in contrast with the normal assumption of linearity. We propose a sequential nonparametric method to test first for cointegration and second for nonlinear dynamics in the cointegrated system. We apply this method to weekly US interest rates constructed using a multirate filter rather than averaging. The Treasury Bill, Commercial Paper and Federal Funds rates are cointegrated, with two ...
Working Paper
Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry
David Hendry has made–and continues to make–pivotal contributions to the econometrics of empirical economic modeling, economic forecasting, econometrics software, substantive empirical economic model design, and economic policy. This paper reviews his contributions by topic, emphasizing the overlaps between different strands in his research and the importance of real-world problems in motivating that research.
Working Paper
Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated
We investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the empirically relevant situation of near-integrated variables. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we show that in a system with near-integrated variables, the probability of reaching an erroneous conclusion regarding the cointegrating rank of the system is generally substantially higher than the nominal size. The risk of concluding that completely unrelated series are cointegrated is therefore non-negligible. The spurious rejection rate can be reduced by performing additional tests ...
Report
Exchange rate cointegration across central bank regime shifts
Foreign exchange rates are examined using cointegration tests over various time periods linked to regime shifts in central bank behavior. The number of cointegrating vectors seems to vary across these regime changes within the foreign exchange market. For example, cointegration is not generally found prior to the Plaza Agreement of September 22, 1985, but it is present after that date. The significance of these changes is evaluated using a likelihood ratio procedure proposed by Quintos (1993). The changing nature of the cointegrating relationships indicate that certain aspects of central bank ...
Working Paper
International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand
We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a data set that has comprised 32 countries since 1851. In many cases, cointegration tests identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between either velocity and the short rate or M1, GDP, and the short rate. Evidence is especially strong for the United States and the United Kingdom over the entire period since World War I and for moderate and high-inflation countries. With the exception of high-inflation countries?for which a ?log-log? specification is preferred?the data often prefer the specification in the levels of velocity and the short ...
Working Paper
Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements
Cointegration theory provides a flexible class of statistical models that combine long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. This paper presents three likelihood ratio (LR) tests for simultaneously testing restrictions on cointegrating relationships and on how quickly the system reacts to the deviation from equilibrium implied by the cointegrating relationships. Both the orthogonal complements of the cointegrating vectors and of the vectors of adjustment speeds have been used to define the common stochastic trends of a nonstationary system. The restrictions implicitly placed on the ...
Working Paper
Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets
We study a Large-Dimensional Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Model where (1) the factors Ft are I (1) and singular, that is Ft has dimension r and is driven by q dynamic shocks with q less than r, (2) the idiosyncratic components are either I (0) or I (1). Under these assumption the factors Ft are cointegrated and modeled by a singular Error Correction Model. We provide conditions for consistent estimation, as both the cross-sectional size n, and the time dimension T, go to infinity, of the factors, the loadings, the shocks, the ECM coefficients and therefore the Impulse Response Functions. ...
Working Paper
Maximum-likelihood estimation of fractional cointegration with application to the short end of the yield curve
We estimate a multivariate autoregressive fractionally-integrated moving-average (ARFIMA) model to illustrate a cointegration testing methodology based on joint estimates of the fractional orders of integration of a cointegrating vector and its parent series. Although previous work has recognized that deviations from long-run relationships could exhibit long memory and go undetected in traditional 1(1)/i (0) cointegration analysis, previous tests for fractional cointegration relied on a two-step testing procedure and maintained the assumption in the second step that the parent series were ...