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Working Paper
Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?
In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from daily prices on nominal and inflation-linked bonds. This paper is the first to examine the evidence from Brazil and Mexico, making use of the fact that markets for longterm government debt have become better developed over the past decade. We find that inflation expectations have become much better ...
Conference Paper
Budget deficits and debt: issues and options (overview)
Conference Paper
Budget deficits and debt: issues and options (overview)
Working Paper
The effects of social security privatization on household saving: evidence from the Chilean experience
In recent years, a handful of countries have converted the financing of their social security systems from pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) to partial or full funding. Privatization is viewed as one way to insulate social security from the political and demographic pressures that currently threaten the financial stability of PAYGO systems. However, privatization would improve a nation's situation only if such a reform increases domestic saving. In this paper I use evidence from Chile, where social security was privatized in 1981, to assess the impact of such a reform on household saving rates. I find ...
Working Paper
The role of credit in post-stabilization consumption booms
This paper presents an empirical investigation of the role of credit in the post-stabilization consumption booms of Mexico, Chile, and Israel. Credit from the banking sector to the private sector expanded very rapidly following the stabilizations. I show that this increase in credit reduced the proportion of consumers that were liquidity constrained in the economy. This reduction in liquidity constraints could have helped to fuel the observed consumption booms. In addition, I show that the most important channels for the expansion in credit to consumers in Mexico are the rapid remonetization ...
Journal Article
Just say yes to Chile
Journal Article
Chile: the big saver