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Changes in Wages and Occupational Mix of Fourth District Metro Areas Between 2019 and 2022
Occupational mixes and wage distributions in the Fourth District’s metro areas mirror both national trends and departures from them that reflect the District’s unique economic makeup. Changes in occupational mix spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic were similar in District metro areas and the nation.
Discussion Paper
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: The China Factor
In a January 2022 post, we first presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), a parsimonious global measure designed to capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators. In this post, we review GSCPI readings through December 2022, and then briefly discuss the drivers of recent moves in the index. While supply chain disruptions have significantly diminished over the course of 2022, the reversion of the index toward a normal historical range has paused over the past three months. Our analysis attributes the recent pause largely to the pandemic in China amid an easing ...
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates, Third Quarter 2023 Update
This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in "Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?" with data for 2023 Q3 for all series. Migration estimates enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.
The Demographics of Urban Migrants Since the Pandemic
The postpandemic movement of people out of urban neighborhoods is speeding up changes in the age, credit risk, income, home ownership, and ethnic mix of these neighborhoods. Migration has been consistent with patterns in place before the pandemic, but at higher levels.
Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
This paper develops a semi-structural model to jointly estimate “stars” — long-run levels of output (its growth rate), the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. It features links between survey expectations and stars, time-variation in macroeconomic relationships, and stochastic volatility. Survey data help discipline stars’ estimates and have been crucial in estimating a high-dimensional model since the pandemic. The model has desirable real-time properties, competitive forecasting performance, and superior fit to the ...
Report
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest after COVID-19
We modify the Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models of the natural rate of interest to account for time-varying volatility and a persistent COVID supply shock during the pandemic. Resulting estimates of the natural rate of interest in the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area at the end of 2022 are close to their respective levels estimated directly before the pandemic; that is, we do not find evidence that the era of historically low estimated natural rates of interest has ended. In contrast, estimates of the natural rate of output have declined relative to those projected ...
Discussion Paper
Wealth Inequality by Age in the Post‑Pandemic Era
Following our post on racial and ethnic wealth gaps, here we turn to the distribution of wealth across age groups, focusing on how the picture has changed since the beginning of the pandemic. As of 2019, individuals under 40 years old held just 4.9 percent of total U.S. wealth despite comprising 37 percent of the adult population. Conversely, individuals over age 54 made up a similar share of the population and held 71.6 percent of total wealth. Since 2019, we find a slight narrowing of these wealth disparities across age groups, likely driven by expanded ownership of financial assets among ...
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates
This District Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in “Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?” with data for 2024:Q1 for all series. The first series measures net migration of people to and from the urban neighborhoods of major metro areas. The second series covers all neighborhoods but breaks down net migration to other regions by four region types: (1) high-cost metros, (2) affordable, large metros, (3) midsized metros, and (4) small metros and rural areas. The metro area definitions used here are for combined statistical areas, which ...
Journal Article
Bank Funding and FHLB Advances
The composition of bank funding has changed considerably since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing not only the importance of Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances in times of stress but also sized-based differences in access to capital markets once the stresses abate. The latter raises the question of whether large banks in particular can replace deposit outflows with capital market funding instead of relying on contingent funding from FHLBs.
Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of Excess Savings
We study the consequences of shocks to the household wealth distribution in dynamic general equilibrium by characterizing the rate at which excess wealth is depleted. Analytical results link the aggregate decumulation rate to the distribution of the additional balances, micro intertemporal marginal propensities to consume, and general equilibrium feedback. A quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model matches the depletion path of the excess savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic across the income distribution. The model predicts a substantial but steadily waning boost to ...