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Journal Article
District business leaders expect modest overall growth in 2006
Results from the fedgazette?s annual business conditions outlook poll of district business leaders
Working Paper
Does the Beige Book move financial markets?
About two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic activity in a document called the Beige Book. The authors examine whether the descriptive content of the Beige Book affects asset prices. The results indicate that more positive Beige Book reports on economic growth are associated with increases in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, even after controlling for other macroeconomic data releases. Stronger Beige Book reports are positively associated with changes in equity prices during expansions but negatively during recessions.
Journal Article
Economic events of 1986-a chronology
Journal Article
National outlook
Journal Article
Some bumps along the way, but outlook still good for coming year
Report
The term structure of announcement effects
We analyze high-frequency responses of U.S. Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum to macroeconomic announcements. We find that surprises in the announcements evoke the sharpest reactions from the intermediate maturities, thus forming striking hump-shaped curves of announcement effects. We then fit an affine-yield model to the yield changes using the announcement surprises as GMM instruments. The model estimates imply that the announcements elicit larger shocks to an expected future target interest rate than to the current short-term interest rate and that different types of ...
Journal Article
1991 outlook: mild recession, mild recovery
A summary of the January 18, 1991 Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, noting the panelists' forecasts for the economy in the wake of uncertainties surrounding the Persian Gulf War.
Journal Article
Inflation and soft landing prospects
A presentation of the outlook for the economy through 1990 by discussants at the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable meeting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Journal Article
Roundtable's Rx for the economy: first, do no harm
An overview of the January 24, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants discussed how longer-term structural adjustments taking place in many of the nation's industries may be restraining the recovery.