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Journal Article
Business outlook best in four years
Newsletter
1991 outlook-stumbling over uncertainty
Working Paper
Does the Beige Book move financial markets?
About two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic activity in a document called the Beige Book. The authors examine whether the descriptive content of the Beige Book affects asset prices. The results indicate that more positive Beige Book reports on economic growth are associated with increases in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, even after controlling for other macroeconomic data releases. Stronger Beige Book reports are positively associated with changes in equity prices during expansions but negatively during recessions.
Journal Article
The U.S. economy in 1990 and 1991: continued expansion likely
This paper reports an optimistic forecast of U.S. output and inflation trends in 1990_91. Generated by a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model of the U.S. economy using data available on November 30, 1989, the forecast is more optimistic than a consensus forecast. The key to the model's greater optimism for real growth is its outlook for strong consumer spending. The model's optimism is defended by examining historical precedents as well as comparing the track records of the model and consensus forecasts. The model's measures of forecast uncertainty, however, suggest that its ...
Journal Article
Inflation and soft landing prospects
A presentation of the outlook for the economy through 1990 by discussants at the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable meeting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Journal Article
The district economy continues to sail along
Journal Article
Reappraising the 1987-88 outlook
A discussion of the expectations of 25 economists participating in the Fourth Federal Reserve District's Economic Roundtable, featuring their predictions for the overall economy and their comments on the auto industry, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the prospects for international trade.
Journal Article
District outlook remains bright overall
Journal Article
The comparative growth performance of the U.S. economy in the postwar period
Productivity growth is the single most important determinant of improvements in a country's living standards over time. Accordingly, the U.S. productivity slowdown of the past two decades has caused great concern and sparked much debate. ; In this article, Mark A. Wynne argues that the problems associated with the U.S. slowdown may be overstated. Wynne shows that the rates of productivity growth experienced in the immediate postwar period were extraordinary in comparison with historical standards. Thus, some slowdown was probably unavoidable. U.S. productivity performance in comparison with ...