Search Results
Journal Article
Overview. The Southeast in 1986
Journal Article
The Beige Book: Timely information on the regional economy
In making monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) relies in part on the Beige Book, a report on regional economic conditions released publicly about two weeks before each FOMC meeting. The Beige Book summarizes economic conditions in each of the twelve Federal Reserve districts and provides an overview of national conditions based on the regional reports. ; The Reserve Banks gather information for their regional summaries from a variety of sources, including telephone and written surveys, local news reports, and reports on current and expected economic conditions from the ...
Journal Article
National outlook
Working Paper
Does the Beige Book move financial markets?
About two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic activity in a document called the Beige Book. The authors examine whether the descriptive content of the Beige Book affects asset prices. The results indicate that more positive Beige Book reports on economic growth are associated with increases in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, even after controlling for other macroeconomic data releases. Stronger Beige Book reports are positively associated with changes in equity prices during expansions but negatively during recessions.
Journal Article
The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective
Nearly a decade has passed since the last U.S. recession ended, and memories of prior recessionary experiences may now have grown dim. The objective of this article is twofold: to provide a concise review of post-World War II recessions, with an eye to identifying their most distinctive features as well as their common elements; and to investigate the extent to which knowledge of a recessionary period provides insight into the subsequent expansion. ; The articles conclusions are necessarily tentative as the date the 1990-91 recession ended had not been officially designated at the time of its ...
Working Paper
Are taste and technology parameters stable? a test of \"deep\" parameter stability in real business cycle models of the U.S. economy
Lucas (1976) criticized Keynesian models because of parametric instability. For many economists, the "Lucas critique" provided a reason to replace the Keynesian approach with equilibrium models of the business cycle. One example of the equilibrium approach is the Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. However, RBC models have not been subjected to the same scrutiny of tests of parameter instability. We present a prototypical RBC model and subject it to structural change tests. Our results document evidence of extensive parameter instability. Thus, the "Lucas critique" is applicable and we ...
Journal Article
1991 outlook: mild recession, mild recovery
A summary of the January 18, 1991 Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, noting the panelists' forecasts for the economy in the wake of uncertainties surrounding the Persian Gulf War.
Journal Article
Reappraising the 1987-88 outlook
A discussion of the expectations of 25 economists participating in the Fourth Federal Reserve District's Economic Roundtable, featuring their predictions for the overall economy and their comments on the auto industry, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the prospects for international trade.
Journal Article
Roundtable's Rx for the economy: first, do no harm
An overview of the January 24, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants discussed how longer-term structural adjustments taking place in many of the nation's industries may be restraining the recovery.
Journal Article
Economic policy issues for 1988 and beyond
A discussion of the uncertainty surrounding economic policy issues in 1988, with emphasis on the need for policymakers to focus on long-term objectives.