Search Results
Speech
Ending too big to fail
Remarks at the Global Economic Policy Forum, New York City.
Journal Article
A closer look: assistance programs in the wake of the crisis
An unprecedented amount of aid was extended by the Treasury, Fed and FDIC to companies, agencies and individuals. This aid was necessary and, in many cases, will return a profit to taxpayers.
Journal Article
District business closings run below national rate
Journal Article
Did the credit crunch cause a rash of business failures?
Working Paper
Examining the impact of credit access on small firm survivability
This paper examines the effects of credit availability on small firm survivability over the period 2004 to 2008 for non-publicly traded small enterprises. Using data from the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finances, we develop failure prediction models for a sample of small firms that were confirmed to have been in business as of December 2003, with particular attention to the impact of credit constraints. We find that credit constrained firms were significantly more likely to go out of business than non constrained firms. Moreover, credit constraint and credit access variables appear to be ...
Report
Bailouts and financial fragility
How does the belief that policymakers will bail out investors in the event of a crisis affect the allocation of resources and the stability of the financial system? I study this question in a model of financial intermediation with limited commitment. When a crisis occurs, the efficient policy response is to use public resources to augment the private consumption of those investors facing losses. The anticipation of such a ?bailout? distorts ex ante incentives, leading intermediaries to choose arrangements with excessive illiquidity and thereby increasing financial fragility. Prohibiting ...
Journal Article
District business failures show economy's impact
Report
Preserving firm value through exit: the case of voluntary liquidations
Voluntary liquidations offer an interesting example of efficient and orderly asset reallocation. This study examines why firms liquidate, and what happens to their assets. One important determinant of voluntary liquidation concerns asset performance and marketability: liquidating firms have low asset productivity, low market-to-book ratios, and high liquidity. Another important determinant concerns management having the proper incentives to liquidate: high inside ownership, takeover pressure, and low debt levels. Financial factors thus establish whether a liquidation is profitable, while ...
Working Paper
Financial distress and the role of capital contributions by the owner manager
This paper examines the implications of bankruptcy law for owner managed firms. These firms are typically (i) smaller, (ii) their value is closely tied to the skills of the owner manager, and (iii) the owner manager represents a feasible source of capital contributions if the firm is in financial distress. The terms of such capital infusions, codified as the new value exception (NVE) to the absolute priority rule (APR), has been the source of considerable controversy, both in terms of its existence, and the economic benefit, if any, that it provides. We show that when the owner manager cannot ...
Working Paper
Firm default and aggregate fluctuations
This paper studies the relation between macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate defaults while conditioning on industry affiliation and an extensive set of firm-specific factors. Using a logit approach on a panel data set for all incorporated Swedish businesses over 1990-2002, we find strong evidence for a substantial and stable impact of aggregate fluctuations. Macroeffects differ across industries in an economically intuitive way. Out-of-sample evaluations show our approach is superior to both models that exclude macro information and best fitting naive forecasting models. While ...