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Journal Article
Can market-clearing models explain U.S. labor market fluctuations?
Li, Victor E. (1999-07)
Throughout the past two decades, market-clearing models of the business cycle have been praised for their ability to explain key empirical features of the post-war U.S. business cycle. Real business cycle (RBC) theory shows that in a model grounded in microeconomic foundations, disturbances to national productivity can explain how aggregate variables such as GDP, consumption and investment behave over time, relative to each other. One of the primary weaknesses of the standard RBC model, however, is its inability to account for some important aspects of U.S. labor market fluctuations. In this ...
Review , Volume 81 , Issue Jul , Pages 35-49

Working Paper
Maximum likelihood estimation with HP filtered data: an invariance theorem
Cogley, Timothy (1994)
Applying the Hodrick-Prescott filter to both the approximating model and the data adds a constant to the log-likelihood function. Thus, maximum likelihood estimates and likelihood ratio statistics are invariant to symmetric HP filtering.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-12

Working Paper
Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend
Durdu, Ceyhun Bora; Boz, Emine; Daude, Christian (2008)
The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an equilibrium business cycle model in which the agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks. When formulating expectations, they assign some probability to TFP shocks being permanent even when they are purely transitory. This is sufficient for the model ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 927

Journal Article
Where's the recovery?
Trenholme, Karen J.; Cromwell, Brian A. (1992)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?
Zakrajšek, Egon; McCarthy, Jonathan (2003)
Despite the recent patch of sluggish growth, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One popular explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results, however, indicate that the changes in inventory dynamics since the mid-1980s played a reinforcing---rather than a leading---role in the volatility reduction. Movements in the volatility of manufacturing output over the past three decades almost entirely reflect changes in the variability of the growth ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-26

Journal Article
What a new set of indexes tells us about state and national business cycles
Crone, Theodore M. (2006-01)
Ted Crone presents information on a recently constructed set of coincident indexes for the 50 states. These indexes can be used to define business cycles at the state level and can tell us how business cycles and the overall patterns of growth have differed among the states.
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 11-24

Journal Article
New views of the business cycle: has the past emphasis on money been misplaced?
Walsh, Carl E. (1986-01)
Business Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-13

Journal Article
Inventories and the recovery
Bennett, Barbara; Klitgaard, Thomas (1983)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Discussion Paper
Productive externalities and business cycles
King, Robert G.; Baxter, Marianne (1991)
This paper begins with the observation that the volatility of factor input growth is insufficient to explain the volatility in the growth rate of output, and explores the empirical plausibility of the hypothesis that this fact is due to the presence of productive externalities and increasing returns to scale. We construct a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model which incorporates these features, and allows for demand shocks operating at the level of the consumer. We employ the method of Hall (1986) and Parkin (1988) to measure these demand shocks, and use these measured disturbances to ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 53

Conference Paper
Path dependence in aggregate output
Durlauf, Steven N. (1991-11)
Proceedings , Issue Nov

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