Search Results
Working Paper
Shared Destinies? Small Banks and Small Business Consolidation
We identify a new source of bank consolidation in the United States. For decades, boththe financial and real sides of the economy have experienced considerable consolidation. Weshow that banking-sector consolidation is, in part, a consequence of real-sector consolidation;because small banks are a disproportionate source of small-business credit, they are disproportionately exposed to shocks to small-business growth. Using a Bartik instrument based onnational small-business trends and county-level industry exposure, we show that changes tothe real-side demand for small-business credit is ...
Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil’s Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2% faster in the first year, with R$100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in ...