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Working Paper
Do Small Businesses Still Prefer Community Banks?
Goulding, William; Rice, Tara N.; Berger, Allen N. (2013-12-01)
We formulate and test hypotheses about the role of bank type ? small versus large, single-market versus multimarket, and local versus nonlocal banks ? in banking relationships. The conventional paradigm suggests that "community banks" ? small, single market, local institutions ? are better able to form strong relationships with informationally opaque small businesses, while "megabanks" ? large, multimarket, nonlocal institutions ? tend to serve more transparent firms. Using the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finance (SSBF), we conduct two sets of tests. First, we test for the type of bank ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1096

Working Paper
Credit Ratings, Private Information, and Bank Monitoring Ability
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Roszbach, Kasper (2016-06-16)
In this paper, we use credit rating data from two large Swedish banks to elicit evidence on banks' loan monitoring ability. For these banks, our tests reveal that banks' internal credit ratings indeed include valuable private information from monitoring, as theory suggests. Banks' private information increases with the size of loans.
Working Papers , Paper 16-14

Newsletter
Interest-only mortgages and speculation in hot housing markets
Barlevy, Gadi; Fisher, Jonas D. M. (2020-05-28)
Even as housing markets have temporarily shut down across the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, housing remains a key sector that contributes disproportionately to fluctuations in overall economic activity and that will likely play an important role as the economy reopens. Interest in this market among research economists and policymakers intensified after the exceptional boom and bust in housing between 2003 and 2008. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we describe research in Barlevy and Fisher (2020)1 that examined patterns in the kinds of mortgages homebuyers took out in different cities during ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 439 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Do bank bailouts reduce or increase systemic risk? the effects of TARP on financial system stability
Sedunov, John; Berger, Allen N.; Roman, Raluca (2016-10-04)
Theory suggests that bank bailouts may either reduce or increase systemic risk. This paper is the first to address this issue empirically, analyzing the U.S. Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Difference-in-difference analysis suggests that TARP significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for larger and safer banks located in better local economies. This occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel. {{p}} Results are robust to additional tests, including accounting for potential endogeneity and selection bias. Findings yield policy conclusions about the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-8

Working Paper
Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan
Choudhary, M. Ali; Jain, Anil K. (2021-08-20)
Using detailed administrative Pakistani credit registry data, we show that banks with low leverage ratios are both significantly slower and less likely to recognize a loan as nonperforming than other banks that lend to the same firm. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that this lack of recognition impedes loan curing, with banks with low leverage ratios reporting significantly higher final default rates than other banks for the same borrower (even after controlling for differences in loan terms). Our empirical findings are consistent with the theoretical prediction that classifying a ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1327

Discussion Paper
Tax Reform's Impact on Bank and Corporate Cyclicality
Van Tassel, Peter; Sanchez, Vanesa; Kovner, Anna; Aragon, Diego (2018-07-16)
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is expected to increase after-tax profits for most companies, primarily by lowering the top corporate statutory tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. At the same time, the TCJA provides less favorable treatment of net operating losses and limits the deductibility of net interest expense. We explain how the latter set of changes may heighten bank and corporate borrower cyclicality by making bank capital and default risk for highly levered corporations more sensitive to economic downturns.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180716

Discussion Paper
Introducing a Series on the Evolution of Banks and Financial Intermediation
Cetorelli, Nicola (2012-07-16)
It used to be simple: Asked how to describe financial intermediation, you would just mention the word “bank.” Then things got complicated. As a result of innovation and legal and regulatory changes, financial intermediation has evolved in a way that invites us to question whether it revolves around banks anymore. The centerpiece of modern intermediation is the advent and growth of asset securitization: loans do not need to reside on the originator’s balance sheet until maturity any longer, but they can instead be packaged into securities and sold to investors. With securitization, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120716

Working Paper
Dollarization Waves: New Evidence from a Comprehensive International Bond Database
Temesvary, Judit; Prasad, Eswar S.; Pradhan, Swapan-Kumar (2025-12-16)
We investigate how the U.S. dollar's prominence in the denomination of international debt securities has evolved in recent decades, using a comprehensive global dataset with far more extensive coverage than datasets used in prior literature. We find no monotonic dollarization or de-dollarization trend; instead, the dollar's share exhibits a wavelike pattern. We document three dollarization waves since the 1960s. The last wave, following the global financial crisis, lifted the dollar's share nearly back to its level at the euro's launch in 2000. Our findings are robust to composition and ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1429

Briefing
Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending
Muething, Catherine; Fessenden, Helen (2017-08)
U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate (CRE) lending significantly in the past five years. Economists and regulators note that some positive factors are driving this trend, but they also see potential risks. Analysts at the Richmond Fed have found that some banks could be especially vulnerable if economic conditions deteriorate. These include institutions that are in certain major urban areas and have high concentrations of CRE loans, rapid CRE loan growth, and heavy reliance on "noncore" (or illiquid) funding. But the analysts also conclude that, overall, banks' CRE exposures ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue August

Working Paper
Is Lending Distance Really Changing? Distance Dynamics and Loan Composition in Small Business Lending
Brevoort, Kenneth P.; Adams, Robert M.; Driscoll, John C. (2021-02-16)
Has information technology improved small businesses' access to credit by hardening the information used in loan underwriting and reducing the importance of proximity to lenders? Previous research, pointing to increasing average lending distances, suggests that it has. But this conclusion can obscure differences across loans and lenders. Using over 20 years of Community Reinvestment Act data on small business lending, we find that while average distances have increased substantially, distances at individual banks remain unchanged. Instead, average distance has increased because a small group ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-011

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