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Working Paper
\"Low-For-Long\" Interest Rates and Banks' Interest Margins and Profitability : Cross-Country Evidence
Interest rates in many advanced economies have been low for almost a decade now and are often expected to remain so. This creates challenges for banks. Using a sample of 3,385 banks from 47 countries from 2005 to 2013, we find that a one percentage point interest rate drop implies an 8 basis points lower net interest margin, with this effect greater (20 basis points) at low rates. Low rates also adversely affect bank profitability, but with more variation. And for each additional year of "low for long", margins and profitability fall by another 9 and 6 basis points, respectively.
Journal Article
Bank Profitability Rebounds despite Compressed Interest Margins
While traditional sources of U.S. bank revenues have struggled during the pandemic, overall bank profitability has soared. This unusual deviation is largely explained by a substantial decline in banks’ loan loss provisions. Extraordinary policy measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury aided a rebound in financial market conditions and, in turn, reduced projected loan losses. However, this effect is likely to be transitory, suggesting an uncertain future for bank profitability.
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates
Does banks' exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or even negative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts announced by the ECB on European bank equity values ? an effect that is normally positive ? has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. Since then, a further unexpected cut of 25 basis points in the short-term policy rate lowered banks' stock prices by about 2% on average, compared to a 1% increase in normal times. In the cross section, ...