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Report
Modelling U.S. services trade flows: a cointegration-ECM approach
The U.S. service surplus soared from near zero in 1985 to about $60 billion in 1992, offsetting about two thirds of the goods trade deficit. Could this merely reflect improvement in data collection? Or does this mean U.S. services industries are more competitive internationally than goods industries? Is the services surplus likely to continue to rise? This paper estimates a forecastable model of U.S. services trade to address the above questions. We find that data improvement actually had a negative net impact on the services surplus, since it affected imports more than exports. Instead, the ...
Journal Article
U.S. international transactions: trends in 1960-67
Journal Article
Recent U.S. export performance in the developing world
U.S. exports to developing countries have grown remarkably in recent years, far outpacing our sales increases to the industrial world. The author seeks explanations for this strong performance in the traditional determinants of export growthrelative prices and income growthand in other factors linking world economic conditions to developing country demand for U.S. goods.
Journal Article
The trade balance effects of foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing
With the rise in foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing during the 1980s, the affiliates of foreign multinationals have become potentially important sources of improved U.S. international competitiveness. This article describes the growing foreign presence in the U.S. manufacturing sector and identifies the channels through which foreign investment is most likely to influence exports and imports. The author presents estimates of the long-term trade balance effects of increased foreign ownership of U.S. manufacturing firms.
Conference Paper
Comments on \\"Understanding global imbalances\\"
In Australia, we debated the issue of sustainability of current account deficits extensively during the 1980s. A lot of the arguments that are being aired at the moment bear a striking similarity to the debate that occurred in Australia throughout the 1980s. Now, two decades on, by and large, the majority view of economists in Australia is very similar to that put forward in this excellent paper by Richard Cooper. Although it must be said that while most economists are relaxed about the current account, it still can engender a significant amount of fear amongst politicians and the public, ...
Speech
The longer-term challenges ahead
Remarks at the Council of Society Business Economists Annual Dinner, London, United Kingdom.
Journal Article
America's trade deficit: the latest false alarm
Working Paper
Prospects for sustained improvement in U.S. external balance: structural change versus policy change
This paper assesses prospects for sustained improvement in the U.S. external balance drawing on both model-based macro analysis and examination of disaggregated data. Most model projections of the future path of U.S. external balance show the recent improvement petering out by the end 1989 or so. Key structural factors leading to the expected future worsening of U. S. external balance are two asymmetries--the "income asymmetry" and the "pass-through asymmetry". That is, asymmetries in the pricing behavior of U.S. exporters and foreign suppliers and asymmetries in the elasticities of U.S. ...