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Modelling U.S. services trade flows: a cointegration-ECM approach
Viana, Sandra; Hung, Juann H. (1995)
The U.S. service surplus soared from near zero in 1985 to about $60 billion in 1992, offsetting about two thirds of the goods trade deficit. Could this merely reflect improvement in data collection? Or does this mean U.S. services industries are more competitive internationally than goods industries? Is the services surplus likely to continue to rise? This paper estimates a forecastable model of U.S. services trade to address the above questions. We find that data improvement actually had a negative net impact on the services surplus, since it affected imports more than exports. Instead, the ...
Research Paper , Paper 9518

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions: trends in 1960-67
anonymous (1968-04)
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Shifting patterns of U.S. trade with selected developing Asian economies
Orr, James A.; Hickok, Susan (1989-01)
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Win , Pages 36-47

Journal Article
Recent U.S. export performance in the developing world
Kasman, Bruce (1992-01)
U.S. exports to developing countries have grown remarkably in recent years, far outpacing our sales increases to the industrial world. The author seeks explanations for this strong performance in the traditional determinants of export growthrelative prices and income growthand in other factors linking world economic conditions to developing country demand for U.S. goods.
Quarterly Review , Volume 17 , Issue Win , Pages 64-74

Journal Article
The trade balance effects of foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing
Orr, James A. (1991-07)
With the rise in foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing during the 1980s, the affiliates of foreign multinationals have become potentially important sources of improved U.S. international competitiveness. This article describes the growing foreign presence in the U.S. manufacturing sector and identifies the channels through which foreign investment is most likely to influence exports and imports. The author presents estimates of the long-term trade balance effects of increased foreign ownership of U.S. manufacturing firms.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Sum , Pages 63-76

Working Paper
Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account
Sarno, Lucio; Fratzscher, Marcel; Juvenal, Luciana (2008)
This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the US current account in the past, accounting for up to 32% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By contrast, shocks to the real exchange rate have been much less relevant, explaining less than 7% and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-031

Conference Paper
Comments on \\"Understanding global imbalances\\"
Debelle, Guy (2006)
In Australia, we debated the issue of sustainability of current account deficits extensively during the 1980s. A lot of the arguments that are being aired at the moment bear a striking similarity to the debate that occurred in Australia throughout the 1980s. Now, two decades on, by and large, the majority view of economists in Australia is very similar to that put forward in this excellent paper by Richard Cooper. Although it must be said that while most economists are relaxed about the current account, it still can engender a significant amount of fear amongst politicians and the public, ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 51

Speech
The longer-term challenges ahead
Dudley, William (2010)
Remarks at the Council of Society Business Economists Annual Dinner, London, United Kingdom.
Speech , Paper 18

Journal Article
America's trade deficit: the latest false alarm
Alm, Richard; Cox, W. Michael (1999-11)
Southwest Economy , Issue Nov , Pages 6-7

Conference Paper
Exchange rates, wages, and international adjustment: Japan and China versus the United States
McKinnon, Ronald I. (2005-02)
Proceedings , Issue Feb

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