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Working Paper
Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Private Sector Foresight
Central banks operate in a world in which there is substantial uncertainty regarding the transmission of its actions to the economy because of uncertainty regarding the formation of private-sector expectations. We model private sector expectations using a finite horizon planning framework: Households and firms have limited foresight when deciding spending, saving, and pricing decisions. In this setting, contrary to standard New Keynesian (NK) models, we show that "an inflation scares problem" for the central bank can arise where agents' longer-run inflation expectations deviate persistently ...