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Working Paper
Predictive Modeling of Surveyed Property Conditions and Vacancy
Richter, Francisca; Urban, Apirl Hirsh; Oduro, Isaac; Whitaker, Stephan; Martin, Hal (2016-12-23)
Using the results of a comprehensive in-person survey of properties in Cleveland, Ohio, we fit predictive models of vacancy and property conditions. We draw predictor variables from administrative data that is available in most jurisdictions such as deed recordings, tax assessor?s property characteristics, and foreclosure filings. Using logistic regression and machine learning methods, we are able to make reasonably accurate out-of-sample predictions. Our findings indicate that housing professionals could use administrative data and predictive models to identify distressed properties between ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1637

Working Paper
Household, Bank, and Insurer Exposure to Miami Hurricanes: a flow-of-risk analysis
Dennis, Benjamin (2023-02-13)
We analyze possible future financial losses in the event of hurricane damage to Miami residential real estate, where the hurricane's destructiveness reflects climate-change. We focus on three scenarios: (i) a business-as-usual scenario, (ii) a Hurricane-Ian-spillovers scenario, and (iii) a cautious-markets scenario. We quantify bank exposures and loss rates, where exposures are proportional to the size of real estate markets and loss rates depend on post-hurricane devaluations and insurance coverage. This quantitative methodology could complement modeling of local economy impacts, stress ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-013

Discussion Paper
Who’s on First? Characteristics of First-Time Homebuyers
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon (2019-04-10)
In our previous post, we presented a new measure of first-time homebuyers. In this post, we use this improved measure to describe the characteristics of first-time buyers and how those characteristics change over time. Having an accurate assessment of first-time buyers is important given that the aim of many housing policies is to support the transition from renting to owning. A proper assessment of these housing policies requires an understanding of the impact of these policies on the share of first-time buyers and the characteristics of these buyers. Our third post will directly examine ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190410

Working Paper
The Impact of Limiting Applicant Information on Rental Housing Discrimination
Mileo Gorzig, Marina; Rho, Deborah (2022-09-21)
Policies that reduce information on applicants (e.g., limiting criminal history) have mixed results in the labor market. However, little is known about their impact in the housing market. We submitted fictitious email inquiries to publicly advertised rentals using names manipulated on perceived race and ethnicity before and after a policy that restricted the use of background checks, eviction history, income minimums, and credit history in rental housing applications in Minneapolis. After the policy was implemented, discrimination against African American and Somali American men increased. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 061

Working Paper
The Marginal Effect of Government Mortgage Guarantees on Homeownership
Kim, You Suk; Grundl, Serafin J. (2019-04-16)
The U.S. government guarantees a majority of residential mortgages, which is often justified as a means to promote homeownership. In this paper we use property-level data to estimate the effect of government mortgage guarantees on homeownership, by exploiting variation of the conforming loan limits (CLLs) along county borders. We find substantial effects on government guarantees, but find no robust effect on homeownership. This finding suggests that government guarantees could be considerably reduced with modest effects on homeownership, which is relevant for housing finance reform plans that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-027

Working Paper
The Effects of the 1930s HOLC \"Redlining\" Maps
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Hartley, Daniel; Aaronson, Daniel (2017-09-17)
In the wake of the Great Depression, the Federal government created new institutions such as the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) to stabilize housing markets. As part of that effort, the HOLC created residential security maps for over 200 cities to grade the riskiness of lending to neighborhoods. We trace out the effects of these maps over the course of the 20th and into the early 21st century by linking geocoded HOLC maps to both Census and modern credit bureau data. Our analysis looks at the difference in outcomes between residents living on a lower graded side versus a higher graded ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-12

Working Paper
Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times
Elul, Ronel; Gupta, Deeksha; Musto, David K. (2025-03-28)
When home prices threaten to decline, large investors may attempt to prop up prices by fostering new lending. We show this motive increased acquisitions of risky mortgages by the government-sponsored enterprises in the first half of 2007. When home prices threaten to decline, large mortgage investors can benefit from fostering new lending that boosts demand. We ask whether this benefit contributed to the growth in acquisitions of risky mortgages by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) in the first half of 2007. We find that it helps explain the variation of this growth across regions ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-12

Discussion Paper
Declines in Low-Cost Rented Housing Units in Eight Large Southeastern Cities
Lueders, Abram; Carpenter, Ann; Immergluck, Daniel (2016-05-01)
From the last quarter of 2012 to the last quarter of 2015, median rents rose 23.4 percent in the South, according to the Census Bureau. Accordingly, an increasing number of households in the South are cost-burdened, which is defined as a household spending more than 30 percent of its income on housing. A growing number of households spend over 50 percent of their income on rent, making them severely cost-burdened. The percentage of such severely cost-burdened households with incomes below $35,000 reached 80 percent in 2014 in eight central cities in the Southeast (Atlanta, Birmingham, ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2016-3

Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of the 1930s HOLC “Redlining” Maps on Place-Based Measures of Economic Opportunity and Socioeconomic Success
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Faber, Jacob; Hartley, Daniel; Aaronson, Daniel; Sharkey, Patrick (2020-12-04)
We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps on census tract-level measures of socioeconomic status and economic opportunity from the Opportunity Atlas (Chetty et al. 2018). We use two identification strategies to identify the long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first compares cross-boundary differences along actual HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had similar pre-existing differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach uses a statistical model to identify boundaries ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-33

Discussion Paper
The Housing Boom and the Decline in Mortgage Rates
Liu, Haoyang; Lucca, David O.; Parker, Dean; Rays-Wahba, Gabriela (2021-09-07)
During the pandemic, national home values and housing activity soared as mortgage rates declined to historic lows. Under the canonical “user cost” house price model, home values are held to be very sensitive to interest rates, especially at low interest rate levels. A calibration of this model can account for the house price boom with the observed decline in interest rates. But empirically, we find that home values are nowhere near as sensitive to interest rates as the user cost model predicts. This lower sensitivity is also found in prior economic research. Thus, the historical ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210907

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