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Discussion Paper
Just Released: Hints of Increased Hardship in America’s Oil-Producing Counties
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-05-24)
Today, the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2016. Overall debt saw one of its larger increases since deleveraging ended, while delinquency rates for the United States continued to improve and remain at very low levels. Although the overall picture of Americans? liabilities has continued to improve since the financial crisis, we wondered what the variation looks like at local levels. One advantage of our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), which is based on Equifax credit data, is that we can examine geographic variation in debt and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160524

Discussion Paper
Foreclosures Loom Large in the Region
Deitz, Richard; Abel, Jaison R. (2013-04-10)
Households in the New York-northern New Jersey region were spared the worst of the housing bust and have generally experienced less financial stress than average over the past several years. However, as the housing market has begun to recover both regionally and nationally, the region is faring far worse than the nation in one important respect—a growing backlog of foreclosures is resulting in a foreclosure rate that is now well above the national average. In this blog post, we describe this outsized increase in the region’s foreclosure rate and explain why it has occurred. We then ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130410

Working Paper
Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance
Elul, Ronel; Tilson, Sebatian; Payne, Aaron (2019-12-17)
We use a matched credit bureau and mortgage dataset to identify occupancy fraud in residential mortgage originations, that is, borrowers who misrepresented their occupancy status as owner-occupants rather than residential real estate investors. In contrast to previous studies, our dataset allows us to show that – during the housing bubble – such fraud was broad based, appearing in the government-sponsored enterprise market and in loans held on bank portfolios as well, and increases the effective share of investors by 50 percent. We show that a key benefit of investor fraud was obtaining a ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-53

Discussion Paper
Bank Regulation and Bank Complexity
Cetorelli, Nicola; Wang, Rose (2016-04-06)
U.S. Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) currently control about 3,000 subsidiaries that provide community housing services?such as building low-income housing units, maintaining shelters, and providing housing services to the elderly and disabled. This aspect of U.S. BHC activity is intriguing because it departs from the traditional deposit-taking and loan-making operations typically associated with banks. But perhaps most importantly, the sheer number of these subsidiaries makes one think about the organizational complexity of U.S. BHCs. This is an issue that has generated much discussion in ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160406

Discussion Paper
Is the Recent Tax Reform Playing a Role in the Decline of Home Sales?
Peach, Richard; McQuillan, Casey (2019-04-15)
From the fourth quarter of 2017 through the third quarter of 2018, the average contract interest rate on new thirty-year fixed rate mortgages rose by roughly 70 basis points�from 3.9 percent to 4.6 percent. During this same period, there was a broad-based slowing in housing market activity with sales of new single-family homes declining by 7.6 percent while sales of existing single-family homes fell by 4.6 percent. Interestingly though, these declines in home sales were larger than in the two previous episodes when mortgage interest rates rose by a comparable amount. This post considers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190415

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Who's Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Yun, David; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-02-18)
According to today’s release of the New York Fed’s 2013:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report, aggregate consumer debt increased by $241 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase since 2007. More importantly, between 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q4, total household debt rose $180 billion, marking the first four-quarter increase in outstanding debt since 2008. As net household borrowing resumes, it is interesting to see who is driving these balance changes, and to compare some of today’s patterns with those of the boom period.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140218b

Discussion Paper
First Impressions Can Be Misleading: Revisions to House Price Changes
Peach, Richard; Tracy, Joseph; Abel, Joshua (2013-03-26)
An assiduous follower of the national house price charts that the New York Fed maintains on its web page may have noticed that we appear to be rewriting history as we update the charts every month. For example, last month we reported that the median twelve-month house price change across all counties for December 2012 was 3.68 percent. However, this month, we indicate that this same median change for December 2012 was instead 3.45 percent. Why the change? Was the earlier reported number a mistake that we simply corrected this month? If not, what explains the revision to the initial report?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130326

Discussion Paper
“Flip This House”: Investor Speculation and the Housing Bubble
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2011-12-05)
The recent financial crisis—the worst in eighty years—had its origins in the enormous increase and subsequent collapse in housing prices during the 2000s. While the housing bubble has been the subject of intense public debate and research, no single answer has emerged to explain why prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously. In this post, we present new findings from our recent New York Fed study that uses unique data to suggest that real estate “investors”—borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential properties—played a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20111205

Working Paper
Basic Facts on the Coverage of the Paycheck Protection Program
Schweitzer, Mark E.; Guo, Angela (2023-11-07)
This paper applies loan-level information from Paycheck Protection Program loans to analyze the coverage of this extraordinary lending program. We show that loans went to a large share of small businesses across most industries in the US, especially to industries that were most negatively impacted by COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. We geocode the loans and then identify that 2021 loans were more concentrated in low- and moderate-income communities, along with census tracts where minority residents are a majority of the population. The growth of nonemployer loans and fintech lending in the ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-24

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