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Working Paper
Parental Proximity and Earnings After Job Displacements
Krolikowski, Pawel; Zabek, Mike; Coate, Patrick (2019-08)
The earnings of young adults who live in the same neighborhoods as their parents completely recover after a job displacement, unlike the earnings of young adults who live farther away, which permanently decline. Nearby workers appear to benefit from help with childcare since grandmothers are less likely to be employed after their child's job displacement and since the earnings benefits are concentrated among young adults who have children. The result also suggests that parental employment networks improve earnings. Differences in job search durations, transfers of housing services, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-062

Working Paper
Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration: Online Appendix
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Kaplan, Greg (2015-06-01)
This appendix contains eight sections. Section 1 gives technical details of how we calculate standard errors in the CPS data. Section 2 discusses changes in the ACS procedures before 2005. Section 3 examines demographic and economic patterns in migration over the past two decades, in more detail than in the main paper. Section 4 examines the cross-sectional variance of location-occupation interactions in earnings when we define locations by MSAs instead of states. Section 5 describes alternative methods to estimate the variance of location-occupation interactions in income. Section 6 measures ...
Working Papers , Paper 725

Newsletter
Credit card delinquency and Covid-19: Neighborhood trends in the Seventh District
O'Dell, Mark; George, Taz; Newberger, Robin G.; Dharmasankar, Sharada (2021-04-15)
The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in great economic and financial disruption. To better understand how financial hardships have varied across communities, we investigate credit card delinquencies across the states of the Federal Reserve’s Seventh District: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While we find a slight increase of less than 1 percentage point in delinquency rates across the District overall following the onset of the pandemic, we find more pronounced increases of about 2 percentage points in low- and moderate-income (LMI) neighborhoods and about 3 percentage ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 454 , Pages 7

Working Paper
Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market
Nichols, Joseph B.; Krainer, John; Black, Lamont K. (2017-09-07)
There are two main creditors in commercial real estate: arm?s-length investors and banks. We model commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as the less informed source of credit. In equilibrium, these investors fund properties with a low probability of distress and banks fund properties that may require renegotiation. We test the model using the 2007-2009 collapse of the CMBS market as a natural experiment, when banks funded both collateral types. Our results show that properties likely to have been securitized were less likely to default or be renegotiated, consistent with the model. ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-19

Working Paper
Natural Amenities, Neighborhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income
Lin, Jeffrey; Lee, Sanghoon (2017-01-30)
We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighborhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighborhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880{2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighborhoods to high incomes over time. Second, naturally heterogeneous cities exhibit persistent spatial distributions of income. ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-3

Report
Geographical reallocation and unemployment during the Great Recession: the role of the housing bust
Rhee, Serena; Karahan, Fatih (2013)
This paper quantitatively evaluates the hypothesis that the housing bust in 2007 decreased geographical reallocation and increased the dispersion and level of unemployment during the Great Recession. We construct an equilibrium model of multiple locations with frictional housing and labor markets. When house prices fall, the amount of home equity declines, making it harder for homeowners to afford the down payment on a new house after moving. Consequently, the decline in house prices reduces migration and causes unemployment to rise differently in different locations. The model accounts for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 605

Report
Agglomeration and job matching among college graduates
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2012-12-01)
We examine job matching as a potential source of urban agglomeration economies. Focusing on college graduates, we construct two direct measures of job matching based on how well an individual?s job corresponds to his or her college education. Consistent with matching-based theories of urban agglomeration, we find evidence that larger and thicker local labor markets increase both the likelihood and quality of a job match for college graduates. We then assess the extent to which better job matching of college-educated workers increases individual-level wages and thereby contributes to the urban ...
Staff Reports , Paper 587

Working Paper
Natural amenities, neighborhood dynamics, and persistence in the spatial distribution of income
Lin, Jeffrey; Lee, Sanghoon (2013-12-06)
We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighborhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighborhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880{2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighborhoods to high incomes over time. Second, downtown neighborhoods in coastal cities were less susceptible to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-48

Working Paper
Housing Supply and Affordability: Evidence from Rents, Housing Consumption and Household Location
Paciorek, Andrew D.; Nathanson, Charles G.; Molloy, Raven S. (2020-06-12)
We examine how housing supply constraints affect housing affordability, which we define as the quality-adjusted price of housing services. In our dynamic model, supply constraints increase the price of housing services by only half has much as the purchase price of a home, since the purchase price responds to expected future increases in rent as well as contemporaneous rent increases. Households respond to changes in the price of housing services by altering their housing consumption and location choices, but only by a small amount. We evaluate these predictions using common measures of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-044

Working Paper
The Persistent Employment Effects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse
Yang, Choongryul; Bhattarai, Saroj; Schwartzman, Felipe (2019-03-08)
We show that the housing wealth collapse of 2006-09 had a persistent impact on employment across counties in the U.S. In particular, localities that had a larger loss in housing net worth during that period had more depressed employment as late as 2016, without a commensurate population response. The use of IV's and controls to identify the causal impact of the wealth shock amplifies those results, leading to an estimate that a 10 percent change in housing net worth between 2006 and 2009 causes a 4.5 percent decline in local employment by 2016, as compared with a 2006 baseline. We do not find ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-7

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