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Working Paper
Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel
Caspi, Itamar (2015-08-01)
Between 2008 and 2013, home prices in Israel appreciated by roughly 50 percent in real terms, with increases of nearly 60 percent in some regions. This paper examines whether this phenomenon reflects the presence of a national or regional housing bubble by applying econometric tests for explosive behavior to quality adjusted national and regional level data on the home price to rent ratio, while controlling for various fundamental factors, including interest rates, income and the leverage ratio. Overall, study results indicate that the recent housing price appreciations at the national and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 246

Working Paper
The Effects of the 1930s HOLC \"Redlining\" Maps
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Hartley, Daniel; Aaronson, Daniel (2017-09-17)
In the wake of the Great Depression, the Federal government created new institutions such as the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) to stabilize housing markets. As part of that effort, the HOLC created residential security maps for over 200 cities to grade the riskiness of lending to neighborhoods. We trace out the effects of these maps over the course of the 20th and into the early 21st century by linking geocoded HOLC maps to both Census and modern credit bureau data. Our analysis looks at the difference in outcomes between residents living on a lower graded side versus a higher graded ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-12

Discussion Paper
Declines in Low-Cost Rented Housing Units in Eight Large Southeastern Cities
Lueders, Abram; Carpenter, Ann; Immergluck, Daniel (2016-05-01)
From the last quarter of 2012 to the last quarter of 2015, median rents rose 23.4 percent in the South, according to the Census Bureau. Accordingly, an increasing number of households in the South are cost-burdened, which is defined as a household spending more than 30 percent of its income on housing. A growing number of households spend over 50 percent of their income on rent, making them severely cost-burdened. The percentage of such severely cost-burdened households with incomes below $35,000 reached 80 percent in 2014 in eight central cities in the Southeast (Atlanta, Birmingham, ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2016-3

Working Paper
What Explains Neighborhood Sorting by Income and Race?
Carroll, Daniel R.; Young, Eric R.; Aliprantis, Dionissi (2019-10-08)
Why do high-income black households live in neighborhoods with characteristics similar to those of low-income white households? We find that neighborhood sorting by income and race cannot be explained by financial constraints: High-income, high-wealth black households live in similar-quality neighborhoods as low-income, low-wealth white households. We provide evidence that black households sort across neighborhoods according to some non-pecuniary factor(s) correlated with the racial composition of neighborhoods. Black households sorting into black neighborhoods can explain the racial gap in ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-08R

Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of the 1930s HOLC “Redlining” Maps on Place-Based Measures of Economic Opportunity and Socioeconomic Success
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Faber, Jacob; Hartley, Daniel; Aaronson, Daniel; Sharkey, Patrick (2020-12-04)
We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps on census tract-level measures of socioeconomic status and economic opportunity from the Opportunity Atlas (Chetty et al. 2018). We use two identification strategies to identify the long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first compares cross-boundary differences along actual HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had similar pre-existing differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach uses a statistical model to identify boundaries ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-33

Working Paper
The Mortgage Prepayment Decision: Are There Other Motivations Beyond Refinance and Move?
Maingi, Ramain Quinn; Hall, Arden (2019-10-21)
Borrowers terminate residential mortgages for a variety of reasons. Prepayments and defaults have always been distinguishable, and researchers have recently distinguished between prepayments involving a move and other prepayments. But these categories still combine distinct decisions. For example, a borrower may refinance to obtain a lower interest rate or to borrow a larger amount. By matching mortgage servicing and credit bureau records, we are able to distinguish among several motivations for prepayment: simple refinancing, cash-out refinancing, mortgage payoff, and move. Using multinomial ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-39

Working Paper
The Behavioral Relationship Between Mortgage Prepayment and Default
Maingi, Ramain Quinn; Hall, Arden (2021-03-22)
An implication of the dual trigger theory of default is that mortgage borrowers who experience an unexpected financial reverse will prepay their mortgage rather than default if their equity in the house is positive. We test this idea with a new data set created by matching mortgage servicing records and credit bureau records to classify prepayments by what happens subsequently. In particular, we can identify a subset of prepayments that seems consistent with the dual trigger theory. If the theory is correct, these prepayments should exhibit similarities to defaults in the data set rather than ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-12

Working Paper
Affordability, Financial Innovation, and the Start of the Housing Boom
Dokko, Jane K.; Keys, Benjamin J.; Relihan, Lindsay E. (2019-01-31)
At their peak in 2005, roughly 60 percent of all purchase mortgage loans originated in the United States contained at least one non-traditional feature. These features, which allowed borrowers easier access to credit through teaser interest rates, interest-only or negative amortization periods, and extended payment terms, have been the subject of much regulatory and popular criticism. In this paper, we construct a novel county-level dataset to analyze the relationship between rising house prices and non-traditional features of mortgage contracts. We apply a break-point methodology and find ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2019-1

Journal Article
Escaping the Housing Shortage
Rappaport, Jordan (2019-06-05)
Despite the continuing economic expansion, home construction remains extremely low by historical benchmarks, constrained by the scarcity of undeveloped land in desired locations and land use regulations. Escaping the resulting housing shortage will take many years and likely require a shift toward multifamily construction, the freeing up of single-family homes by downsizing baby boomers, and the faster relative growth of medium-sized metropolitan areas.
Economic Bulletin , Issue June 5, 2019 , Pages 5

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