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Report
Household formation over time: evidence from two cohorts of young adults
Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Cooper, Daniel H. (2015-11-02)
Residential investment accounts for an important component of U.S. gross domestic product, and traditionally plays a strong role in business cycle expansions. U.S. residential investment has improved slowly during the recovery from the Great Recession, despite a relatively strong national rebound in house prices and record low interest rates. An important determinant of residential investment is the household formation rate, which is largely driven by young adults moving out of their parents? homes after completing high school or college. New household formation can be offset when existing ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-4

Report
Using home maintenance and repairs to smooth variable earnings
Tracy, Joseph; Gyourko, Joseph (2003-05-01)
Recent research indicates that the marked increase in U.S. income inequality over the last twenty-five years has not been matched by a similar increase in consumption inequality. This paper examines the role of saving/dissaving in a house as a vehicle for consumption smoothing. Data from the American Housing Survey show that expenditures on home maintenance and repairs are economically significant, amounting to roughly $1,750 per household each year. This figure is comparable to the labor literature estimates that put households' average annual transitory income variance at about $2,200. Our ...
Staff Reports , Paper 168

Report
Housing demand and community choice: an empirical analysis
Rapaport, Carol (1996)
Housing demand reflects the household's simultaneous choice of neighborhood, whether to own or rent the dwelling, and the quantity of housing services demanded. Existing literature emphasizes the final two factors, but overlooks the choice of community. This paper develops an econometric model that incorporates all three components, and then estimates this model using a sample of households in Tampa, Florida. Incorporating community choice increases the price elasticity of demand and reduces the differential between white and comparable nonwhite households. The results are robust to the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 16

Report
The sensitivity of housing demand to financing conditions: evidence from a survey
Fuster, Andreas; Zafar, Basit (2014-11-01)
The sensitivity of housing demand to mortgage rates and available leverage is key to understanding the effect of monetary and macroprudential policies on the housing market. However, since there is generally no exogenous variation in these variables that is independent of confounding factors (such as economic conditions or household characteristics), it is difficult to cleanly estimate these sensitivities empirically. We circumvent these issues by designing a strategic survey in which respondents are asked for their willingness to pay (WTP) for a home comparable to their current one, under ...
Staff Reports , Paper 702

Report
Tuition, jobs, or housing: what's keeping millennials at home?
Bleemer, Zachary; Brown, Meta; Lee, Donghoon; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-11-01)
This paper documents marked changes in young Americans? residence choices over the past fifteen years, with recent cohorts delaying homeownership and lingering much longer in parents? households. To understand the sources and implications of this decline in independence, we estimate the contributions of local economic circumstances to the decision to live with parents or independently. Transition models, local aggregates, and state-cohort tuition patterns are used to address the likely presence of individual- and neighborhood-level unobserved heterogeneity. Employment and housing market ...
Staff Reports , Paper 700

Report
How mortgage finance affects the urban landscape
Chan, Sewin; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Tracy, Joseph (2015-02-01)
This chapter considers the structure of mortgage finance in the U.S., and its role in shaping patterns of homeownership, the nature of the housing stock, and the organization of residential activity. We start by providing some background on the design features of mortgage contracts that distinguish them from other loans, and that have important implications for issues presented in the rest of the chapter. We then explain how mortgage finance interacts with public policy, particularly tax policy, to influence a household?s decision to own or rent, and how shifts in the demand for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 713

Report
Echoes of rising tuition in students’ borrowing, educational attainment, and homeownership in post-recession America
Bleemer, Zachary; Brown, Meta; Lee, Donghoon; Strair, Katherine; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-07-01)
State average enrollment-weighted public college tuition and fees per school year rose by $3,843 (or 81 percent) between 2001 and 2009. How are recent cohorts absorbing this surge in college costs, and what effect is it having on their post-schooling consumption? Our analysis of tuition, educational attainment, and debt patterns for nine youth cohorts across all fifty states indicates that the tuition hike accounted for $1,628, or about 30 percent, of the increase in average student debt per capita among 24-year-olds between 2003 and 2011. However, estimates indicate no meaningful response to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 820

Report
Home price expectations and behavior: evidence from a randomized information experiment
Armona, Luis; Fuster, Andreas; Zafar, Basit (2016-10-19)
Home price expectations are believed to play an important role in housing dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of how they are formed and how they affect behavior. Using a unique ?information experiment? embedded in an online survey, this paper investigates how consumers? home price expectations respond to past home price growth and how they impact investment decisions. After eliciting respondents? initial beliefs about past and future local home price changes, we present a random subset of the respondents with factual information about past (one- or five-year) changes and then ...
Staff Reports , Paper 798

Working Paper
The Closing of a Major Airport: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects
Ross, Stephen L.; Crews, Jonas C.; Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2020-01-08)
The closing of a busy airport has large effects on noise and economic activity. Using a unique dataset, we examine the effects of closing Denver’s Stapleton Airport on nearby housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory price effects upon announcement, but no price changes at closing likely because closing was widely anticipated. Further, after airport closure, high income and white households moved into these locations and developers upgraded the quality of houses being built. Finally, post-closing, these demographic and housing stock changes had substantial effects on ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-001

Working Paper
Mortgages and Monetary Policy
Garriga, Carlos; Kydland, Finn E.; Šustek, Roman (2015-10-25)
Mortgages are long-term loans with nominal payments. Consequently, under incomplete asset markets, monetary policy can affect housing investment and the economy through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and real payments on outstanding debt. These channels, distinct from traditional real rate channels, are embedded in a general equilibrium model. The transmission mechanism is found to be stronger under adjustable- than fixed-rate mortgages. Further, monetary policy shocks affecting the level of the nominal yield curve have larger real effects than transitory shocks, affecting its slope. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-33

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