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Working Paper
The Local Impact of Containerization
Gendron-Carrier, Nicolas; Rua, Gisela; Brooks, Leah (2018-07-10)
We investigate how containerization impacts local economic activity. Containerization is premised on a simple insight: packaging goods for waterborne trade into a standardized container makes them dramatically cheaper to move. We use a novel cost-shifter instrument -- port depth pre-containerization -- to contend with the non-random adoption of containerization by ports. Container ships sit much deeper in the water than their predecessors, making initially deep ports cheaper to containerize. Consistent with New Economic Geography models, we find that counties near container ports grow an ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-045

Working Paper
Do bank loans and local amenities explain Chinese urban house prices?
Huang, Daisy J.; Leung, Charles Ka Yui; Qu, Baozhi (2015-03-01)
Based on Chinese city-level data from 1999 to 2012 and controlling for geological, environmental, and social diversity, this study suggests that credit plays a significant role in driving up house prices after the Great Recession, whereas property prices only influence bank lending before 2008. Local amenities such as higher education, green infrastructure, healthcare, and climate also positively affect house prices. Moreover, the impacts of bank loans on housing prices tend to be related to the level of amenities, suggesting an integrated approach (i.e. combining macroeconomic and urban ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 230

Working Paper
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law
Sinclair, Tara M.; Owyang, Michael T.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben; Guisinger, Amy Y. (2015-09-08)
Okun's law is an empirical relationship that measures the correlation between the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate and the deviation of output growth from its potential. This relationship is often referred to by policy makers and used by forecasters. In this paper, we estimate Okun's coefficients separately for each U.S. state using an unobserved components framework and find variation of the coefficients across states. We exploit this heterogeneity of Okun's coefficients to directly examine the potential factors that shape Okun's law, and find that indicators of more ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-29

Working Paper
Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time
Gascon, Charles S.; Brave, Scott A.; Kluender, William; Walstrum, Thomas (2021-03-11)
US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This paper develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: 1) an explicit model of the data revision process ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-037

Journal Article
Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time
Gascon, Charles S.; Brave, Scott A.; Kluender, William; Walstrum, Thomas (2021)
US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: 1) an explicit model of the data revision ...
Working Papers , Volume 37 , Issue 3 , Pages 1261-1275

Working Paper
Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time
Gascon, Charles S.; Brave, Scott A.; Kluender, William; Walstrum, Thomas (2019-11-29)
US payroll employment data come from a survey of nonfarm business establishments and are therefore subject to revisions. While the revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to substantially alter assessments of current economic conditions. Researchers and policymakers must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data on the universe of workers some 5 to 16 months after the reference period. This paper develops and tests a state space model that predicts ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-037

Working Paper
FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Bokun, Kathryn (2020-08-14)
We construct a real-time dataset (FRED-SD) with vintage data for the U.S. states that can be used to forecast both state-level and national-level variables. Our dataset includes approximately 28 variables per state, including labor market, production, and housing variables. We conduct two sets of real-time forecasting exercises. The first forecasts state-level labor-market variables using five different models and different levels of industrially-disaggregated data. The second forecasts a national-level variable exploiting the cross-section of state data. The state-forecasting experiments ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-031

Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David; Gregory, Victoria (2021-04-01)
Based on patterns of employment transitions, we identify three different types of workers in the US labor market: α’s β’s and γ’s. Workers of type α make up over half of all workers, are most likely to remain on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, typically find a new job within 1 quarter. Workers of type γ comprise less than one-fifth of workers, have a low probability of staying on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, face a high probability of remaining jobless for more than 1 year. Workers of type β are in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Working Paper
Interregional Migration and Housing Vacancy: Theory and Empirics
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Crews, Jonas C.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2020-01-09)
We examine homeowner vacancy rate interdependencies over time and space through the channel of migration. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating interregional spillovers due to some households’ desires to migrate between regions and by allowing for regime-switching behavior. Our empirical analysis of vacancy rates for the entire U.S. and for Census regions provides visual evidence for the possibility of regime-switching behavior. We explicitly test our model by estimating basic Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-007

Working Paper
Interregional Migration and Housing Vacancy: Theory and Empirics
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Crews, Jonas C.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2020-10-16)
We examine homeowner vacancy rate interdependencies over time and space through the channel of migration. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating interregional spillovers due to some households’ desires to migrate between regions and by allowing for regime-switching behavior. Our empirical analysis of vacancy rates for the entire U.S. and for Census regions provides visual evidence for the possibility of regime-switching behavior. We explicitly test our model by estimating basic Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-007

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