Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 30.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Jel Classification:Q54 

Working Paper
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-02

Working Paper
Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. economy

How costly will rising temperature due to climate change be for the U.S. economy? Recent research has used the well-identified response of output to weather to estimate this cost. But agents may adapt to the new climate. We propose a methodology to infer adaptation technology from the heterogeneous responses of output to weather observed currently across the U.S. Our model estimates how much each region has adapted already, and can predict how much each will adapt further after climate change. The size and distribution of losses from climate change vary substantially once adaptation is taken ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-08

Working Paper
The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter

This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analyzing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather conditions, taking into account the heterogeneous and cumulative effects of weather patterns on economic growth and the asymmetry and nonlinearity in the global influence of ENSO on economic activity. Using data on 75 countries over the period 1975-2014, we provide evidence for the negative growth effects ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 374

Newsletter
A new framework for assessing climate change risk in financial markets

While there is growing recognition that climate change poses a new risk for the economy, more research is needed to understand how climate change risk affects global financial markets. We establish a new framework for this research by merging the climate change risk categories of physical risk, transition risk, and liability risk with the risk categories commonly assessed in the financial markets: market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk. We then factor in market structure and market regulation as we seek to assess the overall impact of these variables on systemic risk. ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 448 , Pages 8

Discussion Paper
Climate Change and Consumer Finance: A Very Brief Literature Review

Extant research shows that climate change can impose significant costs on consumers’ wealth and finances. Both sea-level rise and flooding from hurricane events led to high price declines and thus wealth loss for homes in coastal areas or in disaster-struck areas, with effects lingering for a number of years in some cases. In terms of consumer finance, while the average consumer is not always significantly negatively affected by a disaster, the vulnerable groups (those with low credit scores and who are low income) can be severely affected, experiencing higher rates of delinquencies and ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 21-04

Working Paper
Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk

I investigate how natural disasters can exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities and trigger sovereign defaults. I extend a standard sovereign default model to include disaster risk and calibrate it to a sample of seven Caribbean countries that are frequently hit by hurricanes. I find that disaster risk reduces government's ability to issue debt and that climate change further restricts government's access to financial markets. Next, I show that "disaster clauses", that provide debt-servicing relief, allow governments to borrow more and preserve government's access to financial markets, amid rising ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1291r1

Working Paper
Housing Market Value Impairment from Future Sea-level Rise Inundation

Sea level rise will pose increased risks to U.S. coastal real estate markets in the coming decades, though the direct economic costs depend on the severity and uncertainty within climate-change scenarios.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-05

Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy

Working Paper , Paper 21-14

Working Paper
Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables?defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 365

Journal Article
Drought Risk to the Agriculture Sector

Drought is a perennial and long-term risk that can negatively affect the farm economy through lower yields, loss of crops, reduced farm revenues, and lower sales for farm suppliers. As risks from climate change mount, understanding how drought will affect farmers across the country has become even more important. Drought risk can vary by region, crop type, and production method, and may disproportionately affect some farmers more than others. Although many farmers have crop insurance to protect against losses, insurance does not cover all of their crop’s value, and even insured farmers face ...
Economic Review , Volume v.105 , Issue no.2 , Pages 61-86

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

Mohaddes, Kamiar 3 items

Roth Tran, Brigitte 3 items

Curtis, Katherine 2 items

DeWaard, Jack 2 items

Dice, Jacob 2 items

Fussell, Elizabeth 2 items

show more (58)

FILTER BY Jel Classification

D14 4 items

D12 3 items

E23 3 items

G12 3 items

G21 3 items

show more (46)

FILTER BY Keywords

Climate change 11 items

Natural disasters 5 items

Adaptation 3 items

Migration 3 items

Natural Disaster 3 items

Consumer Credit 2 items

show more (86)

PREVIOUS / NEXT