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Working Paper
Non-renewable resources, extraction technology, and endogenous growth
Stuermer, Martin; Schwerhoff, Gregor (2015-12-29)
We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018. Why have resources not become scarcer as suggested by standard economic theory? We develop a theory of extraction technology, geology and growth grounded in stylized facts. Rising resource demand incentivises firms to invest in new technology to increase their economically extractable reserves. Prices remain constant because increasing returns from the geological distribution of resources offset ...
Working Papers , Paper 1506

Working Paper
Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk
Mallucci, Enrico (2020-07-08)
I investigate how natural disaster can exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities and trigger sovereign defaults. I extend a standard sovereign default model to include disaster risk and calibrate it to a sample of seven Caribbean countries that are frequently hit by hurricanes. I find that hurricane risk reduces government's ability to issue debt and that climate change may further restrict market access. Next, I show that "disaster clauses", that provide debt-servicing relief, improve government ability to borrow and mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on government's borrowing conditions.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1291

Working Paper
Effects of Wildfire Destruction on Migration, Consumer Credit, and Financial Distress
McConnell, Kathryn; Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack; Whitaker, Stephan; Curtis, Katherine; Price, Kobie; St. Denis, Lise; Balch, Jennifer (2021-12-27)
The scale of wildfire destruction has grown exponentially in recent years, destroying nearly 25,000 buildings in the United States during 2018 alone. However, there is still limited research exploring how wildfires affect migration patterns and household finances. In this study, we evaluate the effects of wildfire destruction on in-migration and out-migration probability at the Census tract level in the United States from 1999 to 2018. We then shift to the individual level and examine changes in homeownership, consumer credit usage, and financial distress among people whose neighborhood ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-29

Working Paper
Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation
Phan, Toan; Schwartzman, Felipe (2023-03)
We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk. We find that disaster risk and default risk together lead to slow post-disaster recovery and heightened borrowing costs. Calibrating the model to Mexico, we find that the increase in cyclone risk due to climate change leads to a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent 1% consumption drop. However, financial adaptation via catastrophe bonds and disaster insurance can reduce these losses by about 25%. Our study highlights the ...
Working Paper , Paper 23-06

Working Paper
The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing
Correa, Ricardo; He, Ai; Herpfer, Christoph; Lel, Ugur (2022-06-02)
We investigate how corporate loan costs are affected by climate change-related natural disasters. We construct granular measures of borrowers’ exposure to natural disasters and then disentangle the direct effects of disasters from the effects of lenders updating their beliefs about the impact of future disasters. Following a climate change-related disaster, spreads on loans of at-risk, yet unaffected borrowers, spike and are amplified when attention to climate change is high. Weaker borrowers with the most extreme exposure to these disasters suffer the highest increase in spreads. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1345

Working Paper
Do Sustainable Investment Strategies Hedge Climate Change Risks? Evidence from Germany's Carbon Tax
Ochoa, Marcelo; Paustian, Matthias; Wilcox, Laura (2022-11-04)
It is difficult to assess the effectiveness of investment strategies that screen companies based on environmental criteria to hedge climate change risk because physical risks have not yet fully materialized and policies to combat climate change are usually widely anticipated. This paper sidesteps these limitations by analyzing the stock market response to plausibly exogenous changes in expectations about the level of a carbon tax in Germany. The risk-adjusted return on two sustainable investment approaches---screening companies based on environmental scores and on firms' carbon ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-073

Working Paper
Central Bank Communication about Climate Change
Arseneau, David M.; Drexler, Alejandro; Osada, Mitsuhiro (2022-05-27)
This paper applies natural language processing to a large corpus of central bank speeches to identify those related to climate change. We analyze these speeches to better understand how central banks communicate about climate change. By all accounts, communication about climate change has accelerated sharply in recent years. The breadth of topics covered is wide, ranging from the impact of climate change on the economy to financial innovation, sustainable finance, monetary policy, and the central bank mandate. Financial stability concerns are touched upon, but macroprudential policy is rarely ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-031

Report
800,000 Years of Climate Risk
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico; Prasad, Ananthakrishnan; Seneviratne, Dulani; Xiao, Yanzhe (2022-09-01)
We use a long history of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to estimate the conditional joint evolution of temperature and CO2 at a millennial frequency. We document three basic facts. First, the temperature–CO2 dynamics are non-linear, so that large deviations in either temperature or CO2 concentrations take a long time to correct–on the scale of multiple millennia. Second, the joint dynamics of temperature and CO2 concentrations exhibit multimodality around historical turning points in temperature and concentration cycles, so that prior to the start of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1031

Working Paper
Household, Bank, and Insurer Exposure to Miami Hurricanes: a flow-of-risk analysis
Dennis, Benjamin (2023-02-13)
We analyze possible future financial losses in the event of hurricane damage to Miami residential real estate, where the hurricane's destructiveness reflects climate-change. We focus on three scenarios: (i) a business-as-usual scenario, (ii) a Hurricane-Ian-spillovers scenario, and (iii) a cautious-markets scenario. We quantify bank exposures and loss rates, where exposures are proportional to the size of real estate markets and loss rates depend on post-hurricane devaluations and insurance coverage. This quantitative methodology could complement modeling of local economy impacts, stress ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-013

Report
Unintended Consequences of "Mandatory" Flood Insurance
Blickle, Kristian S.; Santos, João A. C. (2022-04-01)
We document that the quasi-mandatory U.S. flood insurance program reduces mortgage lending along both the extensive and intensive margins. We measure flood insurance mandates using FEMA flood maps, focusing on the discreet updates to these maps that can be made exogenous to true underlying flood risk. Reductions in lending are most pronounced for low-income and low-FICO borrowers, implying that the effects are at least partially driven by the added financial burden of insurance. Our results are also stronger among non-local or more-distant banks, who have a diminished ability to monitor local ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1012

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