Journal Article
The Dispersion of Farmland Values in the Tenth District
Cowley, Cortney (2016-10)
Cortney Cowley examines the widening dispersion of farmland values in the Tenth Federal Reserve District and finds that land quality, climate, and commodity sales have played important roles.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 29-67

Working Paper
Examining the Relationships between Land Values and Credit Availability
Katchova, Ani L.; Cowley, Cortney (2020-05-11)
Given the changes made to the agricultural lending system since the 1980s farm crisis, we investigate the current effects of credit availability on land values. Using data from Federal Reserve Agricultural Credit Surveys, we measure credit availability and perform county-level panel fixed effects estimations controlling for land value determinants, credit availability factors, and county and macroeconomic factors. We build an indicator of increased credit availability and find that estimating farmland values with different factors of credit availability separately could mask combined effects. ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-02

Journal Article
Agricultural Consolidation: Causes and the Path Forward: Agricultural Symposium 2017
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank (2017)
The agricultural economy, both in the U.S. and internationally, continues to adjust to the sharp drop in commodity prices and profit margins from those of just a few years ago. The reduction in prices and profits has led farm producers, agribusinesses, and agricultural lenders to consider fundamental changes to their business models to maintain competitiveness, improve efficiency, and position their businesses for long-term growth. These decisions, however, require a pragmatic recognition of a new commodity price landscape, resulting in strategic realignments and consolidation across the ...
Economic Review , Issue Special Issue , Pages 1-105

Journal Article
Agriculture’s Water Economy: Agricultural Symposium 2016
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank (2016)
Agriculture’s water economy has demonstrated growing signs of strain. Recent and persistent extreme weather-related events have highlighted the vulnerability of food and agricultural production to substantial variations in water availability. Consistent water availability is critical to agricultural production everywhere, and intensifying scarcity presents global agriculture with a formidable long-term challenge. Agricultural production has evolved, to a significant extent, on the basis of available water resources, both surface water and groundwater. However, there are growing concerns ...
Economic Review , Issue Special Issue , Pages 3-142

Journal Article
Competition in Local Agricultural Lending Markets: The Effect of the Farm Credit System
Morris, Charles S.; Wilkinson, James; Hogue, Eric W. (2015-10)
Charles S. Morris, James Wilkinson, and Eric Hogue assess the effects of Farm Credit Association lending on measures of competition in agricultural banking markets.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 51-78

Journal Article
Agricultural Cycles and Implications for the Near Term: Agricultural Symposium 2019
Katchova, Ani L. (2019-07)
While several indicators suggest that a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis is unlikely, the length of the current agricultural downturn may take a toll.
Economic Review , Issue Special Issue 2019 , Pages 5-25

Journal Article
Long-Run Uncertainties for U.S. Agriculture : Agricultural Symposium 2019
Naylor, Rosamond L. (2019-07-01)
Changes in global food and fuel demand, the effects of climate change, and regional depletion of groundwater resources for irrigation create uncertainty for U.S. farmers.
Economic Review , Issue Special Issue 2019 , Pages 51-84

Journal Article
Transitioning to the Long Term : Agricultural Symposium 2019
Gunderson, Michael A. (2019-07-01)
To be successful in the future, agricultural producers will need to take leadership as production conditions, the climate, and technologies evolve.
Economic Review , Issue Special Issue 2019 , Pages 85-101

Journal Article
Drought Risk to the Agriculture Sector
Dice, Jacob; Rodziewicz, David (2020-12-03)
Drought is a perennial and long-term risk that can negatively affect the farm economy through lower yields, loss of crops, reduced farm revenues, and lower sales for farm suppliers. As risks from climate change mount, understanding how drought will affect farmers across the country has become even more important. Drought risk can vary by region, crop type, and production method, and may disproportionately affect some farmers more than others. Although many farmers have crop insurance to protect against losses, insurance does not cover all of their crop’s value, and even insured farmers face ...
Economic Review , Volume 105 , Issue no.2 , Pages 61-86

Journal Article
The Outlook for Farmland Values amid Higher Interest Rates
Kauffman, Nathan; Cowley, Cortney (2019-04-10)
In 2018, the spread between returns to farmland owners and benchmark interest rates narrowed to its lowest level in more than a decade in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. At the same time, farmland sales increased in some states for the first time in several years. Together, the reduced spread and indications of increased sales in some regions suggest the potential for lower farmland values moving forward.
Economic Bulletin , Issue April 10, 2019 , Pages 3