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Journal Article
Agriculture’s Water Economy: Agricultural Symposium 2016
Agriculture’s water economy has demonstrated growing signs of strain. Recent and persistent extreme weather-related events have highlighted the vulnerability of food and agricultural production to substantial variations in water availability. Consistent water availability is critical to agricultural production everywhere, and intensifying scarcity presents global agriculture with a formidable long-term challenge. Agricultural production has evolved, to a significant extent, on the basis of available water resources, both surface water and groundwater. However, there are growing concerns ...
Journal Article
Reshuffling in Soybean Markets following Chinese Tariffs
Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans could reduce the global competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in the longer term.
Journal Article
Transitioning to the Long Term : Agricultural Symposium 2019
To be successful in the future, agricultural producers will need to take leadership as production conditions, the climate, and technologies evolve.
Journal Article
The Outlook for Farmland Values amid Higher Interest Rates
In 2018, the spread between returns to farmland owners and benchmark interest rates narrowed to its lowest level in more than a decade in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. At the same time, farmland sales increased in some states for the first time in several years. Together, the reduced spread and indications of increased sales in some regions suggest the potential for lower farmland values moving forward.
Journal Article
Long-Run Uncertainties for U.S. Agriculture : Agricultural Symposium 2019
Changes in global food and fuel demand, the effects of climate change, and regional depletion of groundwater resources for irrigation create uncertainty for U.S. farmers.
Working Paper
Examining the Relationships between Land Values and Credit Availability
Given the changes made to the agricultural lending system since the 1980s farm crisis, we investigate the current effects of credit availability on land values. Using data from Federal Reserve Agricultural Credit Surveys, we measure credit availability and perform county-level panel fixed effects estimations controlling for land value determinants, credit availability factors, and county and macroeconomic factors. We build an indicator of increased credit availability and find that estimating farmland values with different factors of credit availability separately could mask combined effects. ...
Journal Article
Agricultural Consolidation: Causes and the Path Forward: Agricultural Symposium 2017
The agricultural economy, both in the U.S. and internationally, continues to adjust to the sharp drop in commodity prices and profit margins from those of just a few years ago. The reduction in prices and profits has led farm producers, agribusinesses, and agricultural lenders to consider fundamental changes to their business models to maintain competitiveness, improve efficiency, and position their businesses for long-term growth. These decisions, however, require a pragmatic recognition of a new commodity price landscape, resulting in strategic realignments and consolidation across the ...
Journal Article
Drought Risk to the Agriculture Sector
Drought is a perennial and long-term risk that can negatively affect the farm economy through lower yields, loss of crops, reduced farm revenues, and lower sales for farm suppliers. As risks from climate change mount, understanding how drought will affect farmers across the country has become even more important. Drought risk can vary by region, crop type, and production method, and may disproportionately affect some farmers more than others. Although many farmers have crop insurance to protect against losses, insurance does not cover all of their crop’s value, and even insured farmers face ...
Journal Article
Competition in Local Agricultural Lending Markets: The Effect of the Farm Credit System
Charles S. Morris, James Wilkinson, and Eric Hogue assess the effects of Farm Credit Association lending on measures of competition in agricultural banking markets.
Journal Article
Agriculture in a Global Economy: 2018 Agricultural Symposium
Similar to other segments of the economy, the agricultural sector is increasingly global. In some regions, the production of food and agricultural products has advanced well beyond what is required for consumption within that region. In other areas, agricultural production is more limited. The persistent gap between regions of excess and regions of scarcity has led to an increasing reliance on agricultural trade as global populations and incomes rise, but recent months have also pointed to increased uncertainty about the future of trade and implications for agriculture. Similarly, the ...