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Journal Article
China's Growth Outlook: Is High-Income Status in Reach?
Higgins, Matthew (2020-10-01)
Can China build on its development success to achieve high-income status in the decades ahead? To shed light on this question, we examine the past and prospective future sources of growth in China through the lens of the neoclassical growth model. Our key finding is that China would need to sustain total factor productivity growth at the top end of the range achieved by its high-income Pacific Rim neighbors in order to match their success in raising living standards. While fast-growing working-age populations boosted per capita income growth elsewhere in the Pacific Rim, a rapidly aging ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 4 , Pages 69-97

Journal Article
Growth and the Kaldor Facts
Herrendorf, Berthold; Valentinyi, Akos; Rogerson, Richard (2019)
We revisit the Kaldor growth facts for the United States and the United Kingdom during the postwar period. We find that while overall the original Kaldor facts continue to hold, deviations occurred along several dimensions: Instead of staying constant, the growth rates of real GDP per worker and of real capital per worker have slowed down in the United States and the United Kingdom since the 1970s, the capital-to-output ratio has increased in the United Kingdom, and the share of income paid to labor has decreased in the United States since 1990. We discuss how to calculate the Kaldor facts in ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 4 , Pages 259-76

Working Paper
High-Skilled Services and Development in China
Herrendorf, Berthold; Fang, Lei (2019-11-01)
We document that the employment share of high-skill-intensive services is much lower in China than in countries with similar gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We build a model of structural change with goods and low- and high-skill-intensive services to account for this observation. We find that large distortions limit the size of high-skill-intensive services in China. If they were removed, both high-skill-intensive services and GDP per capita would increase considerably. We document a strong presence of state-owned enterprises in high-skill-intensive services and argue that this ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-21

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Ruhl, Kim J.; Asturias, Jose; Hur, Sewon (2019-02-01)
Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (FHK) (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. Studies of other countries confirm this empirical relationship. To analyze this relationship, we develop a simple model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992) in which there are analytical expressions for the FHK decomposition. When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption ...
Working Papers , Paper 201903

Report
Estimation of cross-country differences in industry production functions.
Harrigan, James (1998-01-01)
International trade economists typically assume that there are no cross-country differences in industry total factor productivity (TFP). In contrast, this paper finds large and persistent TFP differences across a group of industrialized countries in the 1980s. The paper calculates TFP indices, and statistically examines the sources of the observed large TFP differences across countries. Two hypotheses are examined to account for TFP differences: constant returns to scale production with country-specific technological differences, and industry-level scale economies with identical technology in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 36

Working Paper
Misallocation and Productivity in the Lead Up to the Eurozone Crisis
Dias, Daniel A.; Richmond, Christine; Marques, Carlos Robalo (2015-09-23)
We use Portuguese firm-level data to investigate whether changes in resource misallocation may have contributed to the poor economic performance of some southern and peripheral European countries leading up to the Eurozone crisis. We extend Hsieh and Klenow's (2009) methodology to include intermediate inputs and consider all sectors of the economy (agriculture, manufacturing, and services). We find that within-industry misallocation almost doubled between 1996 and 2011. Equalizing total factor revenue productivity across firms within an industry could have boosted valued-added 48 percent and ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1146

Working Paper
International technology Diffusion: A Gravity Approach
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2019-12-05)
We adapt gravity methods from the empirical trade literature to study international technology diffusion in a novel way. First, we derive a theory-based gravity-type equation that describes the main fundamentals of international technology diffusion under perfect enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR). We then estimate the gravity equation using bilateral royalty payments data—for a sample of 53 countries and the period 1995-2012—to infer the amount of technology diffusion predicted by the gravity model. Differences between the model and the data are mainly driven by ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-31

Working Paper
The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Hobijn, Bart; Bosler, Canyon (2016-07-11)
Over the past 15 years, labor-quality growth has been very strong?defying nearly all earlier projections?and has added around 0.5 percentage points to an otherwise modest U.S. productivity picture. Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term. Using a variety of methods, we project that potential labor-quality growth in the longer run (7 to 10 years out) is likely to fall in the range of 0.1 to 0.25 percent per year. In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, should employment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-14

Journal Article
Institutional Barriers and World Income Disparities
Yip, Chong K.; Wang, Ping; Wong, Tsz-Nga (2018)
Why have the income disparities between fast-growing economies and development laggards widened over the past five decades? How important is the role played by institutional barriers with relation to technology adoption? Using cross-country analysis, we find that more-severe institutional barriers in several representative lag-behind countries actually hinder the process of structural transformation and economic development, causing these countries to fall below a representative group of fast-growing economies despite having similar or even better initial states five decades ago. We also find ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 3 , Pages 259-79

Working Paper
ICT Services and their Prices: What do they tell us about Productivity and Technology?
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2017-02-10)
This paper reassesses the link between ICT prices, technology, and productivity. To understand how the ICT sector could come to the rescue of a whole economy, we extend a multi-sector model due to Oulton (2012) to include ICT services (e.g., cloud services) and use it to calibrate the steady-state contribution of the ICT sector to growth in aggregate U.S. labor productivity. Because ICT technologies diffuse through the economy increasingly via purchases of cloud and data analytic services that are not fully accounted for in the standard narrative on ICT's contribution to economic growth, the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-015

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