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Working Paper
World Productivity: 1996 - 2014
Esfahani, Mehrdad; Hobijn, Bart; Fernald, John G. (2020-03-13)
We account for the sources of world productivity growth, using data for more than 36 industries and 40 major economies from 1996 to 2014, explicitly taking into account changes in the misallocation of resources in labor, capital, and product markets. Productivity growth in advanced economies slowed but emerging markets grew more quickly which kept global productivity growth relatively constant until around 2010. After that, productivity growth in all major regions slowed. Much of the volatility in world productivity growth reflects shifts in the misallocation of labor across countries and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-17

Working Paper
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors
Li, Nan; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Cai, Jie (2019-11-18)
We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. A reduction in trade costs induces a re-allocation of comparative advantage in production and innovation across sectors, which translates into higher growth along the counterfactual balanced growth path (BGP). Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-29

Journal Article
Institutional Barriers and World Income Disparities
Yip, Chong K.; Wang, Ping; Wong, Tsz-Nga (2018)
Why have the income disparities between fast-growing economies and development laggards widened over the past five decades? How important is the role played by institutional barriers with relation to technology adoption? Using cross-country analysis, we find that more-severe institutional barriers in several representative lag-behind countries actually hinder the process of structural transformation and economic development, causing these countries to fall below a representative group of fast-growing economies despite having similar or even better initial states five decades ago. We also find ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 3 , Pages 259-79

Working Paper
International technology Diffusion: A Gravity Approach
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-01-02)
This paper investigates, empirically, the determinants of international technology diffusion. To do that, I set up a multi-country model of innovation and diffusion with perfect enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR). The model yields a gravity equation for bilateral royalty payments that is estimated using methods from empirical trade. I investigate discrepancies between model’s predictions and observed royalty payments to identify the role of fundamentals vs. other factors such as imperfect IPR protection. Fundamentals account for most of the variation in royalty payments, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

Working Paper
The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
Cette, Gilbert; Fernald, John G.; Mojon, Benoit (2016-03-28)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of productivity growth around the world. For the United States and Europe, we highlight that this slow pace began prior to the Great Recession. The timing thus suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. For the United States, at the frontier of knowledge, there was a burst of innovation and reallocation related to the production and use of information technology in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. That burst ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-8

Report
Why has the cyclicality of productivity changed?: what does it mean?
Wang, J. Christina; Fernald, John G. (2015-10-01)
Historically, U.S. labor productivity (output per hour) and total factor productivity (TFP) rose in booms and fell in recessions. Different models of business cycles explain this procyclicality differently. Traditional Keynesian models relied on "factor hoarding," that is, variations in how intensively labor and capital were utilized over the business cycle. Real business cycle (RBC) models instead posit that procyclical technology shocks drive the business cycle. Since the mid-1980s, however, the procyclicality of productivity has waned. TFP has been roughly acyclical with respect to ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-6

Working Paper
Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe
Gopinath, Gita; Karabarbounis, Loukas; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina (2015-07-31)
Following the introduction of the euro in 1999, countries in the South experienced large capital inflows and low productivity. We use data for manufacturing firms in Spain to document a significant increase in the dispersion of the return to capital across firms, a stable dispersion of the return to labor across firms, and a significant increase in productivity losses from misallocation over time. We develop a model of heterogeneous firms facing financial frictions and investment adjustment costs. The model generates cross-sectional and time-series patterns in size, productivity, capital ...
Working Papers , Paper 728

Report
The Great Recession, entrepreneurship, and productivity performance
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-01)
In recent years, it is argued, the level of entrepreneurial activity in the United States has declined, causing concern because of its potential macroeconomic implications. In particular, it is feared that a lower rate of firm creation may be associated with lower productivity growth and, hence, lower economic growth in the coming years. This paper studies the issue, focusing on the dynamics of entrepreneurship and productivity around the time of the Great Recession. The author looks first at the recent evolution of alternative measures of entrepreneurship and of productivity, and then ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-8

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
Inklaar, Robert; Fernald, John G. (2020-06-12)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

Report
Newer need not be better: evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators using nighttime lights
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. (2016-06-01)
Nighttime lights data are a measure of economic activity whose measurement error is plausibly independent of the errors of most conventional indicators. Therefore, we can use nighttime lights as an independent benchmark to assess existing measures of economic activity (Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin 2016). We employ this insight to find out which vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) and of the World Development Indicators (WDI) better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of the PWT do not necessarily dominate their predecessors in terms of explaining nighttime lights (and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 778

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