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Working Paper
What Drives International technology Diffusion? A Gravity Approach
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2019-11-04)
We derive a theory-based gravity-type equation that determines the main drivers of international technology diffusion under perfect enforcement of intellectual property rights. We estimate the gravity equation using bilateral royalty payments data for a sample of 53 countries and the period 1995-2012 to infer the amount of technology diffusion predicted by the model. We then analyze differences between the model and the data, and find that they are mainly driven by characteristics of the importing-technology country that are not captured by the model. We explore the role of three channels: ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-31

Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2023-03-31)
This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 50 countries during 1996-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and international technology licensing yields a dynamic structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals, including imperfect intellectual property protection and differences in corporate taxation. The gravity equation is estimated with nonlinear methods. The model's fundamentals account for about 60% of the variation in royalty payments. A quantitative analysis sheds light on the impact of global ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

Report
Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Ruhl, Kim J.; Asturias, Jose; Hur, Sewon (2017-02-21)
Using data from Chile and Korea, we find that a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth is due to firm entry and exit during fast-growth episodes compared to slow-growth episodes. Studies of other countries confirm this empirical relationship. We develop a model of endogenous firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992). Firms enter with efficiencies drawn from a distribution whose mean grows over time. After entering, a firm?s efficiency grows with age. In the calibrated model, reducing entry costs or barriers to technology adoption generates the pattern we document in the data. ...
Staff Report , Paper 544

Working Paper
The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
Cette, Gilbert; Fernald, John G.; Mojon, Benoit (2016-03-28)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of productivity growth around the world. For the United States and Europe, we highlight that this slow pace began prior to the Great Recession. The timing thus suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. For the United States, at the frontier of knowledge, there was a burst of innovation and reallocation related to the production and use of information technology in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. That burst ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-8

Report
Growth uncertainty and risksharing
Van Wincoop, Eric; Athanasoulis, Stefano (1997-10-01)
We propose a new methodology to evaluate the gains from global risksharing that is closely connected to the empirical growth literature. We obtain estimates of residual risk (growth uncertainty) at various horizons from regressions of country-specific deviations from world growth on a wide set of variables in the information set. Since this residual risk can be entirely hedged, we use it to obtain a measure of welfare gain that can be achieved by a representative country. We find that nations can reap very large benefits from engaging in such risksharing arrangements. Using post-war data, the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 30

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
Inklaar, Robert; Fernald, John G. (2020-06-12)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

Working Paper
Misallocation and Credit Market Constraints: the Role of Long-Term Financing
Karabarbounis, Marios; Macnamara, Patrick (2019-01-16)
We measure aggregate productivity loss due to credit market constraints in a model with endogenous borrowing constraints, long-duration bonds, and costly equity payouts. Due to long-duration bonds, the model generates a realistic distribution of credit spreads. We structurally estimate our model using firm-level data on credit spreads from Thomson Reuters Bond Security Data and balance sheet data from Compustat. Credit market constraints increase aggregate productivity by 0.4% through their effect on the credit spread distribution. However, credit market constraints also interact with costly ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-1

Working Paper
The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Implications
Levchenko, Andrei A.; Zhang, Jing (2014-10-07)
We estimate productivities at the sector level for 72 countries and 5 decades, and examine how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries. In both country groups, comparative advantage has become weaker: productivity grew systematically faster in sectors that were initially at greater comparative disadvantage. These changes have had a significant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. In the counterfactual scenario in which each country's comparative advantage remained the same as in the 1960s, and technology in all sectors grew at the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-12

Working Paper
The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals’ Intangible Assets
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Stewart, Ashley (2024-08)
This paper investigates the impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on U.S. multinationals’ intangibles. We develop a theoretical model that incorporates key provisions of the TCJA—the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) and the Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII)—and derive testable implications for changes in licensing and patent transfer patterns. Using data on international royalty flows and patent assignments, we test the model’s predictions. Our findings suggest that the TCJA may have impacted profit shifting strategies through intangibles, aligning with our ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-020

Report
Financial frictions, real estate collateral, and small firm activity in Europe
Blickle, Kristian S.; Banerjee, Ryan N. (2018-10-01)
We observe significant heterogeneity in the correlation between changes in house prices and the growth of small firms across certain countries in Europe. We find that, overall, the correlation is far greater in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. Using a simple model, we show that this heterogeneity may relate to financial frictions in a country. We confirm the model?s propositions in a number of empirical analyses for the following countries in Northern and Southern Europe: the United Kingdom, Norway, France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Small firms in countries with higher financial ...
Staff Reports , Paper 868

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