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Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2024-05-31)
This paper develops a semi-structural model to jointly estimate “stars” — long-run levels of output (its growth rate), the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. It features links between survey expectations and stars, time-variation in macroeconomic relationships, and stochastic volatility. Survey data help discipline stars’ estimates and have been crucial in estimating a high-dimensional model since the pandemic. The model has desirable real-time properties, competitive forecasting performance, and superior fit to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23R2

Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2022-08-15)
We develop a flexible semi-structural time-series model to estimate jointly several macroeconomic "stars" -- i.e., unobserved long-run equilibrium levels of output (and growth rate of output), the unemployment rate, the real rate of interest, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. The ingredients of the model are in part motivated by economic theory and in part by the empirical features necessitated by the changing economic environment. Following the recent literature on inflation and interest rate modeling, we explicitly model the links between long-run survey expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23R

Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2021-10-14)
We develop a flexible semi-structural time-series model to estimate jointly several macroeconomic "stars" — i.e., unobserved long-run equilibrium levels of output (and growth rate of output), the unemployment rate, the real rate of interest, productivity growth, the price inflation, and wage inflation. The ingredients of the model are in part motivated by economic theory and in part by the empirical features necessitated by the changing economic environment. Following the recent literature on inflation and interest rate modeling, we explicitly model the links between long-run survey ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23

Working Paper
Expanded GDP for Welfare Measurement in the 21st Century
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Hulten, Charles R. (2020-03-09)
The information revolution currently underway has changed the economy in ways that are hard to measure using conventional GDP procedures. The information available to consumers has increased dramatically as a result of the Internet and its applications, and new mobile communication devices have greatly increased the speed and reach of its accessibility. An individual now has an unprecedented amount of information on which to base consumption choices, and the “free” nature of the information provided means that the resulting benefits largely bypass GDP and accrue directly to consumers. ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-10

Working Paper
Foundational Processes and Growth
Tham, Wing Wah; Baslandze, Salomé; Sojli, Elvira; Liu, Leo (2025-02-19)
This paper studies the interaction between process and product innovations and their distinct role in firm growth dynamics. We differentiate empirically and theoretically two types of process innovations: foundational processes that advance production technology and cost-reducing processes that enhance existing production efficiency. We develop an innovation model of product varieties with quality heterogeneity to illustrate how these innovations affect firm growth differently and highlight how process innovation induces product innovation. By analyzing millions of patent texts from 1900 to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-01

Working Paper
Explaining Educational Attainment across Countries and over Time
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Restuccia, Diego (2014-11-01)
Consider the following facts. In 1950, the richest countries attained an average of 8 years of schooling whereas the poorest countries 1.3 years, a large 6-fold difference. By 2005, the difference in schooling declined to 2-fold because schooling increased faster in poor than in rich countries. What explains educational attainment differences across countries and their evolution over time? We consider an otherwise standard model of schooling featuring non- homothetic preferences and a labor supply margin to assess the quantitative contribution of productivity and life expectancy in explaining ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-48

Working Paper
The Economic Gains from Equity
Buckman, Shelby R.; Choi, Laura; Daly, Mary C.; Seitelman, Lily (2021-04-07)
How much is inequity costing us? Using a simple growth accounting framework we apply standard shift-share techniques to data from the Current Population Survey (1990-2019) to compute the aggregate economic costs of persistent educational and labor market disparities by gender and race. We find significant economic losses associated with these gaps. Building on this finding, we consider which disparities generate the largest costs, paying specific attention to differences in employment, hours worked, educational attainment, educational utilization, and occupational allocation. We also examine ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-11

Working Paper
Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
Guvenen, Fatih; Mataloni Jr., Raymond J.; Rassier, Dylan G.; Ruhl, Kim J. (2018-04-24)
Official statistics display a significant slowdown in U.S. aggregate productivity growth that begins in 2004. We show how offshore profit shifting by U.S. multinational enterprises affects GDP and, thus, productivity measurement. Under international statistical guidelines, profit shifting causes part of U.S. production generated by multinationals to be excluded from official measures of U.S. production. Profit shifting has increased significantly since the mid-1990s, resulting in lower measures of U.S. aggregate productivity growth. We construct an alternative measure of value added that ...
Working Papers , Paper 751

Working Paper
Family Economics Writ Large
Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2016-11-01)
Powerful currents have reshaped the structure of families over the last century. There has been (i) a dramatic drop in fertility and greater parental investment in children; (ii) a rise in married female labor-force participation; (iii) a significant decline in marriage and a rise in divorce; (iv) a higher degree of positive assortative mating; (v) more children living with a single mother; (vi) shifts in social norms governing premarital sex and married women's roles in the workplace. Macroeconomic models explaining these aggregate trends are surveyed. The relent-less flow of technological ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-26

Report
Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
Kahn, James A.; Rich, Robert W. (2003-01-01)
The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity namely consumption and labor compensation to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two "regimes," high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 159

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