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Working Paper
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors
Li, Nan; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Cai, Jie (2020-02-28)
We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. We calibrate the model to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in production, innovation efficiency and knowledge spillovers. Our counterfactual analysis shows that a reduction in trade costs induces a re-allocation of R&D and comparative advantage across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-029

Working Paper
Dynamic Gains from Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2021-11-22)
I study the short- and long-term effects of trade agreements with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions on innovation, growth and welfare. I develop a quantitative multi-country trade model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption that features imperfect IP rights enforcement. A counterfactual analysis shows that improving IP protection in exchange for market access increases welfare, innovation and growth in the world. However, welfare gains along the transition accrue differently across countries. While developed countries benefit both in the short- and inthe ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-010

Working Paper
The Increasing Deflationary Influence of Consumer Digital Access Services
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2020-02-26)
Consumer digital access services—internet, mobile phone, cable TV, and streaming—accounted for over 2 percent of U.S. household consumption in 2018. We construct prices for these services using direct measures of volume (data transmitted, talk time, and hours of programming). Our price index fell 12 percent per year from 1988 to 2018 while official prices moved up modestly. Using our digital services index, we estimate total personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices have risen nearly 1/2 percentage point slower than the official index since 2008. Importantly, the spread between ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-021

Working Paper
The Increasing Deflationary Influence of Consumer Digital Access Services
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2020-03-05)
Consumer digital access services—internet, mobile phone, cable TV, and streaming—accounted for over 2 percent of U.S. household consumption in 2018. We construct prices for these services using direct measures of volume (data transmitted, talk time, and hours of programming). Our price index fell 12 percent per year from 1988 to 2018 while official prices moved up modestly. Using our digital services index, we estimate total personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices have risen nearly 1/2 percentage point slower than the official index since 2008. Importantly, the spread between ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-021r1

Newsletter
Why the Automotive Chip Crisis Isn't Over (Yet)
Dziczek, Kristin (2022-10)
New car buyers face limited inventory, long order wait times, and rising prices primarily because of lingering automotive supply chain disruptions. It is difficult for automakers to produce enough vehicles to meet demand, and the main culprit is reported to be the lack of semiconductors—or chips. Professional forecasters have ratcheted down their sales and production predictions as the months go by, and the supply-constrained conditions have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. In this article, I investigate why the chip crisis is still with us and why some forecasts suggest that it will ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume No 473

Report
The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production
McGrattan, Ellen R.; Waddle, Andrea L. (2017-02-02)
In this paper, we estimate the impact of increasing costs on foreign producers following a withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (popularly known as Brexit). Our predictions are based on simulations of a multicountry neoclassical growth model that includes multinational ?rms investing in research and development (R&D), brands, and organizational capital that are used nonrivalrously by their subsidiaries at home and abroad. For the main simulation, we assume that U.K. investments in the European Union face the same restrictions as Norway?s and that E.U. investments in the ...
Staff Report , Paper 542

Working Paper
The Global Diffusion of Ideas
Oberfield, Ezra; Buera, Francisco J. (2015-12-31)
We provide a tractable theory of innovation and technology diffusion to explore the role of international trade in the process of development. We model innovation and diffusion as a process involving the combination of new ideas with insights from other industries or countries. We provide conditions under which each country's equilibrium frontier of knowledge converges to a Frechet distribution, and derive a system of differential equations describing the evolution of the scale parameters of these distributions, i.e., countries' stocks of knowledge. In particular, the growth of a country's ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-13

Working Paper
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
Meyer, Brent; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Mihaylov, Emil (2021-01-15)
We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-2

Working Paper
The City Paradox: Skilled Services and Remote Work
Ganapati, Sharat; Walsh, Conor; Eckert, Fabian (2020-12-03)
Large cities in the US are the most expensive places to live. Paradoxically, this cost is paid disproportionately by workers who could work remotely, and live anywhere. The greater potential for remote work in large cities is mostly accounted for by their specialization in skill- and information-intensive service industries. We highlight that this specialization makes these cities vulnerable to remote work shocks. When high-skill workers begin to work from home or leave the city altogether, they withdraw spending from local consumer service industries that rely heavily on their demand. As a ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 43

Working Paper
Workplace Automation and Corporate Liquidity Policy
Wang, Jessie Jiaxu (2023-04-18)
Using an occupational probability of computerization, we measure a firmâ€™s ability to replace labor with automated capital. Our evidence suggests that the potential to automate a workforce enhances operating flexibility, allowing firms to hold less precautionary cash. To provide evidence for this mechanism, we exploit the 2011â€“2012 Thailand hard drive crisis as an exogenous shock to the cost of automation. In addition, the negative relation between prospective automation and cash holdings is greater for firms with a lower expected cost of worker displacement and greater ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-023

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