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Jel Classification:O33 

Report
The equilibrium real policy rate through the lens of standard growth models

The long-run equilibrium real policy rate is a key concept in monetary economics and an important input into monetary policy decision-making. It has gained particular prominence lately as the Federal Reserve continues to normalize monetary policy. In this study, we assess the evolution, current level, and prospective values of this equilibrium rate within the framework of standard growth models. Our analysis considers as a baseline the single-sector Solow model, but it places more emphasis on the multi-sector neoclassical growth model, which better fits the data over the past three decades. ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-6

Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens

This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 50 countries during 1996-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and international technology licensing yields a dynamic structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals, including imperfect intellectual property protection and differences in corporate taxation. The gravity equation is estimated with nonlinear methods. The model's fundamentals account for about 60% of the variation in royalty payments. A quantitative analysis sheds light on the impact of global ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

Working Paper
The Dotcom Bubble and Underpricing: Conjectures and Evidence

We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999?2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1633

Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development

We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from North to South. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-031

Journal Article
Why Is the Labor Share Declining?

The fraction of national income accruing to labor (the labor share) had been roughly constant in developed economies for much of the 20th century but has fallen since the 1980s. We review several of the leading explanations in the literature for the declining labor share. We then point to hitherto unexplored dimensions of the data and provide suggestive evidence for a new explanation. In particular, we show that the labor share began a steeper descent in 2000. This more recent break in the labor-share trend coincides with the rapid rise of software investment, which has left a larger impact ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 4 , Pages 413-428

Journal Article
Digital Currency, Digital Payments, and the 'Last Mile' to the Unbanked

Digital forms of payment are either not accessible or highly costly for unbanked consumers. This is because these forms of payment must be "funded" by some source of money, such as cash or a bank account. That creates the "last-mile" problem for the unbanked. This article examines various solutions for the funding problem that have been proposed in the literature, by regulators, and in bills submitted to Congress.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 9 , Pages 9

Working Paper
Skilled Tradable Services: The Transformation of U.S. High-Skill Labor Markets

We study a group of service industries that are skill-intensive, widely traded, and have recently seen explosive wage growth. Between 1980 and 2015, these ?Skilled Tradable Services? accounted for a sharply increasing share of employment among the highest earning Americans. Unlike any other sector, their wage growth was strongly biased toward the densest local labor markets and the highest paying firms. These services alone explain 30% of the increase in inequality between the 50th and 90th percentiles of the wage distribution. We offer an explanation for these patterns that highlights the ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 25

Working Paper
Slow Post-Financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy

Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and be accompanied by slowdowns in TFP and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted? We address this issue by developing a model with endogenous TFP growth in which an adverse financial shock can induce a slow recovery. In the model, a welfare-maximizing monetary policy rule features a strong response to output, and the welfare gain from output stabilization is much larger than when TFP expands exogenously. Moreover, inflation stabilization results in a sizable welfare loss, while nominal GDP ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 347

Working Paper
The Evolution of Technological Substitution in Low-Wage Labor Markets

This paper uses minimum wage hikes to evaluate the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that automation is accelerating and supplanting a broader set of low-wage routine jobs in the decade since the Financial Crisis. Simultaneously, low-wage interpersonal jobs are increasing and offsetting routine job loss. However, interpersonal job growth does not appear to be enough – as it was previous to the Financial Crisis – to fully offset the negative effects of automation on low-wage routine jobs. Employment losses are most evident among minority workers ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-16

Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens

This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 41 countries during 1996-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and international technology licensing yields a dynamic structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals, including: (i) imperfect intellectual property protection and (ii) tax havens. The gravity equation is estimated using nonlinear methods. The model’s fundamentals account for 56% of the variation in royalty payments. Counterfactual analysis sheds light on the role of intellectual property rights ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

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