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Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade
Martinez-Zarzoso, Immaculada; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2024-09-26)
This paper investigates the impact of cross-border patenting on the margins of international trade using disaggregated data on international patenting and trade flows. We develop a theoretical framework of trade and firms' patenting decisions that motivates our empirical analysis. The main results reveal that cross-border patenting has a larger effect on the extensive margin of trade compared to the intensive margin. This finding suggests that firms tend to seek patent protection in international markets prior to entering those markets with new products, rather than with their existing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-028

Journal Article
Domestic Innovation and International Technology Diffusion as Sources of Comparative Advantage
Zhu, Heting; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2018)
Productivity differences across countries determine patterns of international trade?hence, comparative advantage. We use a multi-industry model of international trade to estimate a measure of industry productivity. We then quantify the effect that domestic innovation and technology diffusion have in explaining differences in productivity across countries and industries. Consistent with standard growth theories, we find the following: (i) Higher-income countries benefit more from domestic innovation than lower-income countries, whereas lower-income countries benefit more from technology ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 4

Report
Need for Speed: Quality of Innovations and the Allocation of Inventors
Caicedo, Santiago; Pearce, Jeremy (2024-10-01)
This paper studies how the speed-quality tradeoff in innovation interacts with firm dynamics, concentration, and economic growth. Empirically, we document long-run trends in the increasing speed of innovation alongside declining quality at large firms. Leveraging variation from an exogenous policy change, we document the existence of the speed-quality tradeoff both at the firm and aggregate level. We develop an endogenous growth model that incorporates the speed-quality tradeoff and show that allocating less labor towards speed increases growth, particularly in the presence of private ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1127

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2022-01-31)
This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 41 countries during 1996-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and international technology licensing yields a dynamic structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals, including: (i) imperfect intellectual property protection and (ii) tax havens. The gravity equation is estimated using nonlinear methods. The model’s fundamentals account for 56% of the variation in royalty payments. Counterfactual analysis sheds light on the role of intellectual property rights ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

Working Paper
How Demand for New Skills Affects Wage Inequality: The Case of Software Programmers
de Souza, Gustavo; Herbstman, Jacob S.; Mannion, Jack (2024-09-30)
We study how the demand for programming skills has impacted inequality. We create a new dataset with information on wages, employment, and software of Brazilian programmers, covering the period from the birth of information technology (IT) to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). High-ability, high-wage, and highly educated individuals in key technology hubs are more likely to become programmers. Creating software boosts both wages and career prospects of programmers, especially for those with specialized skills in AI and cybersecurity. These wage gains are concentrated among top ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2024-19

Working Paper
The Dotcom Bubble and Underpricing: Conjectures and Evidence
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; Pinheiro, Roberto; de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson (2016-12-21)
We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999?2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1633

Working Paper
How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?
Oliner, Stephen D.; Sichel, Daniel E.; Byrne, David M. (2017-01)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that the performance of microprocessor units (MPUs) has continued to improve at a rapid pace. Over the course of the 2000s, the MPU prices posted by Intel, the dominant producer of MPUs, became much stickier over the chips' life cycle. As a result of this change, we argue that the matched-model methodology ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-005

Working Paper
The Future of Labor: Automation and the Labor Share in the Second Machine Age
Giri, Rahul; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu; Xia, Junjie; Drozd, Lukasz A.; Cheng, Hong (2021-03-09)
We study the effect of modern automation on firm-level labor shares using a 2018 survey of 1,618 manufacturing firms in China. We exploit geographic and industry variation built into the design of subsidies for automation paid under a vast government industrialization program, “Made In China 2025,” to construct an instrument for automation investment. We use a canonical CES framework of automation and develop a novel methodology to structurally estimate the elasticity of substitution between labor and automation capital among automating firms, which for our preferred specification is 3.8. ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-11

Working Paper
The Covid-19 Pandemic Spurred Growth in Automation: What Does this Mean for Minority Workers?
Broady, Kristen; Booth-Bell, Darlene; Barr, Anthony; Perry, Ryan (2023-02-27)
The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated trends in automation as many employers seek to save on labor costs amid widespread illness, increased worker leverage, and market pressures to onshore supply chains. While existing research has explored how automation may displace non-specialized jobs, there is typically less attention paid to how this displacement may interact with preexisting structural issues around racial inequality. This analysis updates that of a 2021 Brookings paper by the authors, finding that Black and Hispanic workers continue to be overrepresented in the 30 occupations with the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-06

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