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Working Paper
The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K
Visschers, Ludo; Hobijn, Bart; Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; She, Powen (2014-08-27)
U.K. data from 1993-2012 suggest that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers change their career when starting a new job. The proportion of total hires involving a career change also drops. This implies that career changes decline during recessions. The results indicate that recessions are times of subdued reallocation rather than of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-21

Working Paper
The Unintended Consequences of Employer Credit Check Bans for Labor Markets
Glover, Andrew; Tasci, Murat; Cortes, Kristle Romero (2019-02-25)
Over the last decade, 11 states have restricted employers? access to the credit reports of job applicants. We document a significant decline in county-level vacancies after these laws were enacted: Job postings fall by 5.5 percent in affected occupations relative to exempt occupations in the same county and the same occupation nationwide. Cross-sectional heterogeneity in the estimated effects suggests that employers use credit reports as signals: Vacancies fall more in counties with a large share of subprime residents, while they fall less in occupations with other commonly available signals.
Working Papers , Paper 201905

Report
Do informal referrals lead to better matches? Evidence from a firm's employee referral system
Topa, Giorgio; Brown, Meta; Setren, Elizabeth (2012)
The limited nature of data on employment referrals in large business and household surveys has so far limited our understanding of the relationships among employment referrals, match quality, wage trajectories, and turnover. Using a new, firm-level data set that includes explicit information on whether a worker was referred by a current employee of the company, we are able to provide rich detail on these empirical relationships for a single U.S. corporation, and to test various predictions of theoretical models of labor market referrals. Predictions with which our results align include: 1) ...
Staff Reports , Paper 568

Working Paper
Training and Search on the Job
Lentz, Rasmus; Roys, Nicolas (2015-10-30)
The paper studies human capital accumulation over workers? careers in an on the job search setting with heterogenous firms. In renegotiation proof employment con- tracts, more productive firms provide more training. Both general and specific training induce higher wages within jobs, and with future employers, even conditional on the future employer type. Because matches do not internalize the specific capital loss from employer changes, specific human capital can be over-accumulated, more so in low type firms. While validating the Acemoglu and Pischke (1999) mechanisms, the analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-25

Working Paper
The Business Cycle Mechanics of Search and Matching Models
Bernstein, Joshua; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2020-08-25)
This paper estimates a real business cycle model with unemployment driven by shocks to labor productivity and the job separation rate. We make two contributions. First, we develop a new identification scheme based on the matching elasticity that allows the model to perfectly match a range of labor market moments, including the volatilities of unemployment and vacancies. Second, we use our model to revisit the importance of shocks to the job separation rate and highlight how their correlation with labor productivity affects their transmission mechanism.
Working Papers , Paper 2026

Report
Mismatch unemployment
Song, Joseph; Violante, Giovanni L.; Topa, Giorgio; Sahin, Aysegul (2012)
We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies: JOLTS and HWOL (a new database covering the universe of online U.S. job advertisements). Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate. Geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 566

Working Paper
Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle
Bernstein, Joshua; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2021-01-12)
Establishment entry and exit is strongly correlated with output and unemployment. This paper examines how these linkages affect business cycle dynamics through the lens of a search and matching model augmented to include multi-worker establishments that endogenously enter and exit. Analytical results show cyclical entry and exit cause reallocation of inputs that amplifies and skews business cycle dynamics. When the model is calibrated to the data, it generates realistic asymmetry in output and unemployment, data-consistent counter-cyclical endogenous uncertainty and a 55% higher welfare cost ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018

Report
Rational inattention in hiring decisions
Wee, Shu Lin; Acharya, Sushant (2019-02-01)
We provide an information-based theory of matching efficiency fluctuations. Rationally inattentive firms have limited capacity to process information and cannot perfectly identify suitable applicants. During recessions, higher losses from hiring unsuitable workers cause firms to be more selective in hiring. When firms cannot obtain sufficient information about applicants, they err on the side of caution and accept fewer applicants to minimize losses from hiring unsuitable workers. Pro-cyclical acceptance rates drive a wedge between meeting and hiring rates, explaining fluctuations in matching ...
Staff Reports , Paper 878

Working Paper
Job Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations
Krolikowski, Pawel (2019-02-01)
This paper disciplines a model with search over match quality using microeconomic evidence on worker mobility patterns and wage dynamics. In addition to capturing these individual data, the model provides an explanation for aggregate labor market patterns. Poor match quality among first jobs implies large fluctuations in unemployment due to a responsive job destruction margin. Endogenous job destruction generates a burst of layoffs at the onset of a recession and, together with on-the-job search, generates a negative comovement between unemployment and vacancies. A significant job ladder, ...
Working Papers , Paper 201904

Working Paper
The Aggregate Effects of Labor Market Frictions
Elsby, Michael; Ratner, David; Michaels, Ryan (2017-11-21)
Labor market frictions are able to induce sluggish aggregate employment dynamics. However, these frictions have strong implications for the source of this propagation: They distort the path of aggregate employment by impeding the flow of labor across firms. For a canonical class of frictions, we show how observable measures of such flows can be used to assess the effect of frictions on aggregate employment dynamics. Application of this approach to establishment microdata for the United States reveals that the empirical flow of labor across firms deviates markedly from the predictions of ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-40

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