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Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Worker- and Employer-Targeted Immigration Enforcement
Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline; Smith, Chloe N. (2024-11-19)
Hiring someone who is not authorized to work in the United States is illegal, and employers who knowingly hire unauthorized immigrant workers may face civil and criminal penalties. The federal government uses a variety of actions, including worksite raids and paperwork audits, to enforce the prohibition on hiring unauthorized workers. Compliance costs and the possibility of becoming the target of an immigration enforcement action may affect U.S. businesses’ decisions about whom to hire as well as how many workers to employ and how much to pay them, but little previous research has studied ...
Working Papers , Paper 2413

Working Paper
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah; Soques, Daniel (2022-11-23)
The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, the misallocation of workers across space or across industries. We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch. We construct MSA-level unemployment rates and vacancy data using techniques similar to Barnichon (2010) and a new dataset of online help-wanted ads by MSA. We estimate regional Beveridge curves, identifying the slopes by restricting them to be equal across locations with similar labor market characteristics. We find that the 51 U.S. cities in our sample have four groupings ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-037

Working Paper
Job Applications and Labor Market Flows
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Wee, Shu Lin (2022-02)
Job applications have risen over time yet job-finding rates remain unchanged. Meanwhile, separations have declined. We argue that increased applications raise the probability of a good match rather than the probability of job-finding. Using a search model with multiple applications and costly information, we show that when applications increase, firms invest in identifying good matches, reducing separations. Concurrently, increased congestion and selectivity over which offer to accept temper increases in job-finding rates. Our framework contains testable implications for changes in offers, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-023

Discussion Paper
Assisting Firms during a Crisis: Benefits and Costs
Wall, Larry D. (2020-08-10)
Public and private efforts to reduce COVID-19 infection levels have led to a sharp drop in economic activity around the world. In an attempt to mitigate the damage to businesses, governments around the world have implemented a variety of financial programs to help firms. These programs have been criticized as interfering with markets, providing bailouts, and creating adverse incentives. In this article, I review both the rationale for government-provided assistance and the costs of providing that assistance from the perspective of how that aid effects the likely level and volatility of ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-10

Working Paper
Competitors' Stock Price Reaction to Mass Layoff Announcements
Pinheiro, Roberto; Bordeman, Adam; Kannan, Bharadwaj (2016-04-18)
Using data on layoff announcements by S&P 500 firms, we show that layoff announcements mostly contain industrywide news. Competitors? stock price reactions are positively correlated with the announcer?s returns. This contagion effect is stronger for competitors whose values depend on growth opportunities. When layoff announcements induce positive stock returns to announcers, competitors with positive R&D see a 1.15% increase in their returns. Conversely, when announcements induce negative reactions to announcers, competitors with high sales growth see a reduction of 1.09% in returns. Our ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1610

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2022-09-06)
When firms decide to post a vacancy they can hire from the pool of unemployed workers or they can poach a worker from another firm. In this paper we show that if there are two different matching processes, one for unemployed workers and another one for job-to-job transitions, then implications for the Beveridge curve are potentially very different, influencing the effects of monetary policy on unemployment. We show that over the years the hiring process and how job postings are used as an input into this process has changed dramatically.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Working Paper
The slow job recovery in a macro model of search and recruiting intensity
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2016-05-08)
Despite steady declines in the unemployment rate and increases in the job openings rate after the Great Recession, the hiring rate in the United States has lagged behind. Significant gaps remain between the actual job filling and finding rates and those predicted from the standard labor search model. To examine the forces behind the slow job recovery, we generalize the standard model to incorporate endogenous variations in search intensity and recruiting intensity. Our model features a vacancy creation cost, which implies that firms rely on variations in both the number of vacancies and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-9

Working Paper
Precautionary On-the-Job Search over the Business Cycle
Shao, Ling; Ahn, Hie Joo (2017-02-24)
This paper provides new evidence for cyclicality in the job-search effort of employed workers, on-the-job search (OJS) intensity, in the United States using American Time Use Survey and various cyclical indicators. We find that OJS intensity is countercyclical along both the extensive and intensive margins, with the countercyclicality of extensive margin stronger than the other. An increase in the layoffs rate and the deterioration in expectations about future personal financial situation are the primary factors that raise OJS intensity. Our findings suggest that the precautionary motive in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-025

Working Paper
Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?
Fallick, Bruce; Carrington, William J. (2014-06-02)
The earnings of workers are reduced for many years after being displaced from their jobs, and those workers and their families face increased risk of other problems as well. The ills suffered by displaced workers motivated several recent expansions of government programs, including the unemployment insurance system, and have spurred calls for wage insurance that would provide longerrun earnings replacement. However, while the magnitude of the losses is relatively clear, the theory of why displacement matters is scattered and somewhat undeveloped. Much of the policy discussion appears to ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1405

Working Paper
VACANCY CHAINS
Elsby, Michael; Ratner, David; Michaels, Ryan (2020-07-30)
Replacement hiring—recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit—plays a central role in establishment dynamics. We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years at a time, despite facing substantial gross turnover in the form of quits. We propose a model in which replacement hiring is driven by the presence of a putty-clay friction in the production structure of establishments. Replacement hiring induces a novel positive feedback channel through which an initial ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-28

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