Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility
Declining internal migration in the United States is driven by increasing home attach-ment in locations with initially high rates of population turnover. These ?fast? locations were the population growth destinations of the 20th century, where home attachments were low, but have increased as regional population growth has converged. Using a novel measure of attachment, this paper estimates a structural model of migration that distinguishes moving frictions from home utility. Simulations quantify candidate explanations of the decline. Rising home attachment accounts for most of the decline not attributable to population aging, and its e?ect is consistent with the observed spatial pattern.
AUTHORS: Coate, Patrick; Mangum, Kyle
Foreign nurse importation to the United States and the supply of native registered nurses
Importing foreign nurses has been used as a strategy to ease nursing shortages in the United States. The effectiveness of this policy critically depends on the long-run response of native-born nurses. We examine how the immigration of foreign-born registered nurses (RNs) affects the occupational choice and long-run employment decisions of native RNs. Using a variety of empirical strategies that exploit the geographical distribution of immigrant nurses across U.S. cities, we find evidence of large displacement effects?over a 10-year period, for every foreign nurse that migrates to a city, between one and two fewer native nurses are employed in that city. We find similar results at the state level using data on individuals taking the nursing board exam?an increase in the flow of foreign nurses significantly reduces the number of natives sitting for licensure exams in the states that are more dependent on foreign-born nurses compared to those states that are less dependent on foreign nurses. Using data on self-reported workplace satisfaction among a sample of California nurses, we find evidence suggesting that some of the displacement effects could be driven by a decline in the perceived quality of the workplace environment.
AUTHORS: Cortes, Patricia; Pan, Jessica
Moving to a new job: the role of home equity, debt, and access to credit
The severe decline in house prices during and after the Great Recession may have hampered adjustment in U.S. labor markets by limiting mobility of unemployed workers. Mobility will suffer if unemployed workers are reluctant to leave homes that, with debt exceeding value, cannot be disposed of without injecting cash or defaulting?a pattern referred to as "housing lock-in." If such reluctance keeps workers from moving from depressed areas to areas with available jobs, the Beveridge curve, which depicts the relationship between vacancies and joblessness, may shift outward. To examine whether this has been the case in the United States in recent years, the authors use individual-level credit reports merged with loan-level mortgage data to estimate how mobility relates to home equity when labor markets are weak or strong, and they develop and calibrate a dynamic quantitative model of consumption, housing, employment, and mobility that replicates the data well.
AUTHORS: Demyanyk, Yuliya; Sorensen, Bent E.; Hryshko, Dmytro; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose
Does immigration crowd natives into or out of higher education?
Over the past several decades, the United States has experienced some of its largest immigrant inflows since the Great Depression. This higher level of immigration has generated significant debate on the effects of such inflows on receiving markets and natives. Education market studies have found that inflows of immigrant students can displace some natives from enrollment. Meanwhile, labor market studies have primarily examined the impact of immigrant labor inflows on the wages of similarly and dissimilarly skilled natives, with mixed results. The lack of consensus in the wage studies has spurred a growing line of research on whether natives respond endogenously to immigrant worker inflows. Yet, it remains unexplored whether native responses in the higher education market also contribute to the absorption of immigrants into the labor market and the effects on equilibrium in both markets. In a unified framework of the education and labor markets this paper addresses whether skill level via college enrollment is another margin on which natives endogenously adjust to immigrant inflows of students and labor. This study differs from previous research by separately identifying native human capital accumulation responses to both immigrant labor and student inflows at the college margin, where such responses may be strongest due to the high school-college wage gap. The analysis also contributes to our understanding of how local markets respond to immigrant inflows.
AUTHORS: Jackson, Osborne
The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility After 1980
We demonstrate that intergenerational mobility declined sharply for cohorts born between 1957 and 1964 compared to those born between 1942 and 1953. The former entered the labor market largely after the large rise in inequality that occurred around 1980 while the latter entered the labor market before this inflection point. We show that the rank-rank slope rose from 0.27 to 0.4 and the IGE rose from 0.35 to 0.51. The share of children whose income exceeds that of their parents fell by about 3 percentage points. These findings suggest that relative mobility fell by substantially more than absolute mobility.
AUTHORS: Mazumder, Bhashkar; Davis, Jonathan
Internal Immigrant Mobility in the Early 20th Century: Experimental Evidence from Galveston Immigrants
Between 1907 and 1914, the ?Galveston Movement,? a philanthropic effort spearheaded by Jacob Schiff, fostered the immigration of approximately 10,000 Russian Jews through the Port of Galveston, Texas. Upon arrival, households were given train tickets to pre-selected locations west of the Mississippi River where a job awaited. Despite the program?s stated purpose to locate new Russian Jewish immigrants to the Western part of the U.S., we find that almost 90 percent of the prime age male participants ultimately moved east of the Mississippi, typically to large Northeastern and Midwestern cities. We use a standard framework for modeling location decisions to show destination assignments made cities more desirable, but this effect was overwhelmed by the attraction of religious and country of origin enclaves. By contrast, there is no economically or statistically significant effect of a place having a larger base of immigrants from other areas of the world and economic conditions appear to be of secondary importance, especially for participants near the bottom of the skill distribution. Our paper also introduces two novel adjustments for matching historical data ? using an objective measure of match quality to fine tune our match scores and a deferred acceptance algorithm to avoid multiple matching.
AUTHORS: Aaronson, Daniel; Davis, Jonathan; Schulze, Karl
Migration Constraints and Disparate Responses to Changing Job Opportunities
Using the Current Population Survey between 1996 and 2018, this paper investigates the role constraints to migration might play in explaining racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market. The Delta Index of dissimilarity is used to illustrate a greater distributional mismatch between race/education specific workers and jobs among minorities relative to white non-Hispanics. Regression analysis then shows that this mismatch is consistent with minorities being less responsive to changes in the distribution of job opportunities. However, minorities are more responsive when the growing job opportunities are located in areas with greater same-racial/ethnic representation, suggesting that social constraints might play a role in the observed distributional mismatch. The analysis focuses on 25?54 year old men.
AUTHORS: Burns, Kalee; Hotchkiss, Julie L.
How do e-verify mandates affect unauthorized immigrant workers?
A number of states have adopted laws that require employers to use the federal government?s E-Verify program to check workers? eligibility to work legally in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Survey, this study examines whether such laws affect labor market outcomes among Mexican immigrants who are likely to be unauthorized. We find evidence that E-Verify mandates reduce average hourly earnings among likely unauthorized male Mexican immigrants while increasing labor force participation and employment among likely unauthorized female Mexican immigrants. In contrast, the mandates appear to lead to better labor market outcomes among workers likely to compete with unauthorized immigrants. Employment and earnings rise among male Mexican immigrants who are naturalized citizens in states that adopt E-Verify mandates, and earnings rise among U.S.-born Hispanic men.
AUTHORS: Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline
Irregular immigration in the European Union
Unauthorized immigration is on the rise again in the EU. Although precise estimates are hard to come by, proximity to nations in turmoil and the promise of a better life have drawn hundreds of thousands of irregular migrants to the EU in 2014-2015. Further complicating the ongoing challenge is the confounding flow of humanitarian migrants, who are fleeing not for a job but for their lives. Those who flee for better economic conditions are irregular migrants, not humanitarian migrants, but the lines between the two are often blurred. This policy brief surveys the state of irregular immigration to the EU and draws on lessons from the U.S. experience. It focuses on economic aspects of unauthorized immigration. There are economic benefits to receiving countries as well as to unauthorized migrants themselves, but those benefits require that migrants are able to access the labor market and that prices and wages are flexible. Meanwhile, mitigating fiscal costs requires limiting access to public assistance programs for newcomers. Successfully addressing irregular migration is likely to require considerable coordination and cost-sharing among EU member states.
AUTHORS: Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline
The impact of temporary protected status on immigrants’ labor market outcomes
The United States currently provides Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to more than 300,000 immigrants from selected countries. TPS is typically granted if dangerous conditions prevail in the home country due to armed conflict or a natural disaster. Individuals with TPS cannot be deported and are allowed to stay and work in the United States temporarily. Despite the increased use of TPS in recent years, little is known about how TPS affects labor market outcomes for beneficiaries, most of whom are unauthorized prior to receiving TPS. This study examines how migrants from El Salvador who are likely to have received TPS fare in the labor market compared with other migrants. The results suggest that TPS eligibility leads to higher employment rates among women and higher earnings among men. The results have implications for recent programs that allow some unauthorized immigrants to receive temporary permission to remain and work in the United States.
AUTHORS: Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M.