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Working Paper
Entrepreneurship and State Taxation
Decker, Ryan A.; Curtis, E. Mark (2018-01-11)
Entrepreneurship plays a vital role in the economy, yet there exists little well-identified research into the effects of taxes on startup activity. Using recently developed county-level data on startups, we examine the effect of states' corporate, personal and sales tax rates on new firm activity and test for cross-border spillovers in response to these policies. We find that new firm employment is negatively?and disproportionately?affected by corporate tax rates. We find little evidence of an effect of personal and sales taxes on entrepreneurial outcomes. Our results are robust to changes in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-003

Working Paper
Labor Supply Within the Firm
Park, Choonsung; Battisti, Michele; Michaels, Ryan (2020-07-17)
There is substantial variation in working time even within employer-employee matches, and yet estimates of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply can be near zero. This paper proposes a tractable theory of earnings and working time to interpret these observations. Production complementarities attenuate the response of working time to idiosyncratic, or worker-specific, shocks, but firm-wide shocks are mediated by preference parameters. The model can be identified using firm-worker matched data, revealing a Frisch elasticity of around 0.5. A quasi-experimental approach that mimics the design of ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-27

Journal Article
How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?
Webb, Anthony; Owyang, Michael T.; Sun, Wei; Friedberg, Leora (2017)
Compared with prime-age workers, older workers face an easier path out of the labor force if they lose their jobs during a recession. However, premature job exits or earnings losses in the years leading up to retirement may be particularly devastating to retirement savings. The authors analyze the impact of recent business cycles on retirement using multifaceted job transitions of older workers. They focus on local labor markets because older workers are particularly unlikely to move for work. Surprisingly, the biggest effect of a higher local unemployment rate on older workers is to raise ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 3 , Pages 259-78

Working Paper
Occupation Mobility, Human Capital and the Aggregate Consequences of Task-Biased Innovations
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2019-04-23)
We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with occupation mobility, human capital accumulation and endogenous assignment of workers to tasks to quantitatively assess the aggregate impact of automation and other task-biased technological innovations. We extend recent quantitative general equilibrium Roy models to a setting with dynamic occupational choices and human capital accumulation. We provide a set of conditions for the problem of workers to be written in recursive form and provide a sharp characterization for the optimal mobility of individual workers and for the aggregate supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-13

Working Paper
Upskilling: do employers demand greater skill when skilled workers are plentiful?
Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Shoag, Daniel; Ballance, Joshua (2015-01-30)
The Great Recession and subsequent recovery have been particularly painful for low-skilled workers. From 2007 to 2012, the unemployment rate rose by 6.4 percentage points for noncollege workers while it rose by only 2.3 percentage points for the college educated. This differential impact was evident within occupations as well. One explanation for the differential impact may be the ability of highly skilled workers to take middle- and low-skilled jobs. Indeed, over this period the share of workers with a college degree in traditionally middle-skill occupations increased rapidly. Such growth in ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-17

Working Paper
Oligopsonies over the Business Cycle
Pinheiro, Roberto; Monte, Daniel (2020-02-27)
With a duopsony model, we show how the degree of labor market slack relates to earnings inequality and firm size distribution across local labor markets and the business cycle. In booms, due to the high aggregate productivity, there is fierce competition with resulting high wages and full employment. During recessions, there is labor market slack and firms enjoy local market power. In periods in which the economy is moving in or out of a recession, there is an “accommodation” phase, with firms shrinking their labor forces and paying lower wages instead of competing for poached workers. We ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-06

Report
Slow recoveries and unemployment traps: monetary policy in a time of hysteresis
Dogra, Keshav; Wee, Shu Lin; Bengui, Julien; Acharya, Sushant (2017-11-01)
We analyze monetary policy in a model where temporary shocks can permanently scar the economy's productive capacity. Unemployed workers? skill losses generate multiple steady-state unemployment rates. When monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound, large shocks reduce hiring to a point where the economy recovers slowly at best?at worst, it falls into a permanent unemployment trap. Since monetary policy is powerless to escape such traps ex post, it must avoid them ex ante. The model quantitatively accounts for the slow U.S. recovery following the Great Recession, and suggests that lack ...
Staff Reports , Paper 831

Working Paper
No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Modestino, Alicia Sasser; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Burke, Mary A. (2019-10-01)
Using a novel database of 159 million online job postings, we examine changes in employer skill requirements for education and specific skillsets between 2007 and 2017. We find that upskilling—in terms of increasing demands for bachelor’s degrees as well as software skills—was a persistent trend among high-skill occupations, but either a temporary or non-existent phenomenon among middle-skill and low-skill occupations. We also find evidence that persistentupskilling in the high-skill sector contributed to greater occupational mismatch that remained elevated during the recovery from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-3

Report
Aggregate Recruiting Intensity
Violante, Giovanni L.; Gavazza, Alessandro; Mongey, Simon (2017-08-25)
We develop an equilibrium model of firm dynamics with random search in the labor market where hiring firms exert recruiting effort by spending resources to fill vacancies faster. Consistent with microevidence, fast-growing firms invest more in recruiting activities and achieve higher job-filling rates. These hiring decisions of firms aggregate into an index of economy-wide recruiting intensity. We study how aggregate shocks transmit to recruiting intensity, and whether this channel can account for the dynamics of aggregate matching efficiency during the Great Recession. Productivity and ...
Staff Report , Paper 553

Working Paper
Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle
Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Shoag, Daniel; Ballance, Joshua (2016-02-29)
Using a novel database of 82.5 million online job postings, we show that employer skill requirements fell as the labor market improved from 2010 to 2014. We find that a 1 percentage point reduction in the local unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 0.27 percentage point reduction in the fraction of jobs requiring at least a bachelor?s degree and a roughly 0.23 percentage point reduction in the fraction requiring five or more years of experience. This pattern is established using multiple measures of labor availability, is bolstered by similar trends along heretofore unmeasured ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-9

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