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Working Paper
Labor Market Tightness during WWI and the Postwar Recession of 1920-1921
Anderson, Haelim; Chang, Jin-Wook (2022-08-01)
The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the Federal Reserve's discount rate hikes to tame inflation. Using a newly constructed data set, we study labor market dynamics during this period. We find that labor markets were tight when the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, but they became loose following the tightening as the recession deepened. The demand-supply imbalance in the labor market was driven by a sharp decline in the number of job openings. We also show that the recession had an uneven effect on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-049

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2024-02-22)
The recent behavior of the Beveridge Curve significantly differs from past recessions and is hard to explain with traditional gradual changes in fundamentals. We propose a novel dual vacancy model where we acknowledge that not all vacancies are made equal—when firms post a vacancy they can hire from unemployment or they can poach a worker from another firm. Our dual vacancy model segments the labor market into separate search processes for unemployed and employed workers and provides a better fit to the data than traditional models assuming a homogeneous market. By analyzing labor market ...
Working Papers , Paper 2221

Working Paper
How Demand for New Skills Affects Wage Inequality: The Case of Software Programmers
de Souza, Gustavo; Herbstman, Jacob S.; Mannion, Jack (2024-09-30)
We study how the demand for programming skills has impacted inequality. We create a new dataset with information on wages, employment, and software of Brazilian programmers, covering the period from the birth of information technology (IT) to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). High-ability, high-wage, and highly educated individuals in key technology hubs are more likely to become programmers. Creating software boosts both wages and career prospects of programmers, especially for those with specialized skills in AI and cybersecurity. These wage gains are concentrated among top ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2024-19

Working Paper
Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness
Decker, Ryan A.; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron S.; Miranda, Javier (2018-02-02)
The pace of job reallocation has declined in all U.S. sectors since 2000. In standard models, aggregate job reallocation depends on (a) the dispersion of idiosyncratic productivity shocks faced by businesses and (b) the marginal responsiveness of businesses to those shocks. Using several novel empirical facts from business microdata, we infer that the pervasive post-2000 decline in reallocation reflects weaker responsiveness in a manner consistent with rising adjustment frictions and not lower dispersion of shocks. The within-industry dispersion of TFP and output per worker has risen, while ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-007

Working Paper
The Unintended Consequences of Employer Credit Check Bans on Labor and Credit Markets
Glover, Andrew; Tasci, Murat; Cortes, Kristle Romero (2018-01-10)
Since the Great Recession, 11 states have restricted employers? access to the credit reports of job applicants. We document that county-level vacancies decline between 9.5 percent and 12.4 percent after states enact these laws. Vacancies decline significantly in affected occupations but remain constant in those that are exempt, and the decline is larger in counties with many subprime residents. Furthermore, subprime borrowers fall behind on more debt payments and reduce credit inquiries postban. The evidence suggests that, counter to their intent, employer credit check bans disrupt labor and ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1625

Report
Mismatch unemployment
Topa, Giorgio; Song, Joseph; Violante, Giovanni L.; Sahin, Aysegul (2012)
We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies: JOLTS and HWOL (a new database covering the universe of online U.S. job advertisements). Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate. Geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 566

Report
Slow recoveries and unemployment traps: monetary policy in a time of hysteresis
Dogra, Keshav; Wee, Shu Lin; Bengui, Julien; Acharya, Sushant (2017-11-01)
We analyze monetary policy in a model where temporary shocks can permanently scar the economy's productive capacity. Unemployed workers? skill losses generate multiple steady-state unemployment rates. When monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound, large shocks reduce hiring to a point where the economy recovers slowly at best?at worst, it falls into a permanent unemployment trap. Since monetary policy is powerless to escape such traps ex post, it must avoid them ex ante. The model quantitatively accounts for the slow U.S. recovery following the Great Recession, and suggests that lack ...
Staff Reports , Paper 831

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties? Evidence from the Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Credit Survey
de Zeeuw, Mels; Terry, Ellie (2018-08-21)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Banks' 2017 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this paper investigates the various ways in which different types of firms with less than 500 employees experience and address hiring difficulties, including when they decide to increase compensation. {{p}} The authors find significant variation in hiring difficulties by type of firm, and a firm's response appears to depend on the nature of the problem. The most common response is to increase compensation, with firms that experience competition from other employers being the most likely to do so. Other common ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-1

Working Paper
Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States
Tuzemen, Didem (2018-03-15)
I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Using micro-level data from the Current Population Survey for the period 1994-2017, I find that the natural rate of unemployment declined by 0.5 percentage point since 1994 and currently stands at 4.5 percent. My projections show that ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-3

Working Paper
The Future of Labor: Automation and the Labor Share in the Second Machine Age
Giri, Rahul; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu; Xia, Junjie; Drozd, Lukasz A.; Cheng, Hong (2021-03-09)
We study the effect of modern automation on firm-level labor shares using a 2018 survey of 1,618 manufacturing firms in China. We exploit geographic and industry variation built into the design of subsidies for automation paid under a vast government industrialization program, “Made In China 2025,” to construct an instrument for automation investment. We use a canonical CES framework of automation and develop a novel methodology to structurally estimate the elasticity of substitution between labor and automation capital among automating firms, which for our preferred specification is 3.8. ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-11

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