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Working Paper
Family Welfare and the Great Recession
Rios-Avila, Fernando; Moore, Robert E.; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2014-08-01)
The analysis in this paper provides estimates of family welfare losses generated by wage and nonlabor income declines experienced across the Great Recession and by labor market constraints existing postrecession. Welfare losses are greater as families (both married and single) move up the income distribution. Total static welfare losses are estimated to amount to roughly $190 billion, comparing family welfare between 2007 and 2011.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-10

Report
How Should Tax Progressivity Respond to Rising Income Inequality?
Violante, Giovanni L.; Heathcote, Jonathan; Storesletten, Kjetil (2020-10-19)
We address this question in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model featuring exogenous idiosyncratic risk, endogenous skill investment, and flexible labor supply. The tax and transfer schedule is restricted to be log-linear in income, a good description of the US system. Rising inequality is modeled as a combination of skill-biased technical change and growth in residual wage dispersion. When facing shifts in the income distribution like those observed in the US, a utilitarian planner chooses higher progressivity in response to larger residual inequality but lower progressivity in ...
Staff Report , Paper 615

Working Paper
The ups and downs of the gig economy, 2015–2017
Burke, Mary A.; Bracha, Anat (2018-10-01)
A variety of researchers and public entities have estimated the prevalence of nontraditional work arrangements ? using diverse definitions ? in recent decades, and the topic has received increasing attention in the past five years. Despite numerous media reports that the prevalence of nonstandard work has increased since the Great Recession, not all sources agree on this point, and very little evidence exists relating to hours or earnings from such arrangements and their changes over time. Using unique data from the Survey of Informal Work Participation (SIWP), we describe changes in informal ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-12

Working Paper
Family Welfare and the Cost of Unemployment
Rios-Avila, Fernando; Moore, Robert E.; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2017-09-01)
This paper calculates the cost of an unemployment shock in terms of family welfare. We find that, overall, families face an average annualized expected dollar equivalent welfare loss of $1,156 when the unemployment rate rises by 1 percentage point. The average welfare loss for married families is greater than for single families and increases with education. We then estimate that a 1.8 percent shock to purchasing power would generate the same amount of overall welfare loss as a one-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-7

Working Paper
Home Production and Leisure During the COVID-19 Recession
Leukhina, Oksana; Yu, Zhixiu (2020-08-10)
Between the months of February and April of 2020, average weekly market hours dropped by 6.25, meanwhile 35% of commuting workers reported switching to remote work arrangements. In this paper, we examine implications of these changes for the time allocation of different households, and on aggregate. We estimate that home production activity increased by 2.1 hours a week, or 34% of lost market hours, whereas leisure activity increased by 3.8 hours a week. The monthly value of home production increased by $30.83 billion – that is 10.5% of the concurrent $292.61 billion drop in monthly GDP. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-025

Report
Job search behavior over the business cycle
Sahin, Aysegul; Patterson, Christina; Mukoyama, Toshihiko (2014-08-01)
We create a novel measure of job search effort starting in 1994 by exploiting the overlap between the Current Population Survey and the American Time Use Survey. We examine the cyclical behavior of aggregate job search effort using time series and cross-state variation and find that it is countercyclical. About half of the countercyclical movement is explained by a cyclical shift in the observable characteristics of the unemployed. Individual responses to labor market conditions and drops in wealth are important in explaining the remaining variation.
Staff Reports , Paper 689

Working Paper
What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data
Velde, Francois R. (2020-04-10)
Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of “exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude.” I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data from the coal industry documents the short-lived impact of the epidemic on labor supply. The Armistice possibly prolonged the 1918 recession, short as it was, by injecting momentary uncertainty. Interventions to hinder the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2020-11

Report
Optimal Progressivity with Age-Dependent Taxation
Violante, Giovanni L.; Heathcote, Jonathan; Storesletten, Kjetil (2017-08-04)
This paper studies optimal taxation of labor earnings when the degree of tax progressivity is allowed to vary with age. We analyze this question in a tractable equilibrium overlapping-generations model that incorporates a number of salient trade-offs in tax design. Tax progressivity provides insurance against ex-ante heterogeneity and earnings uncertainty that missing markets fail to deliver. However, taxes distort labor supply and human capital investments. Uninsurable risk cumulates over the life cycle, and thus the welfare gains from income compression via progressive taxation increase ...
Staff Report , Paper 551

Working Paper
Default Risk and Private Student Loans: Implications for Higher Education Policies
Ionescu, Felicia; Simpson, Nicole B. (2014-08-26)
The private market for student loans has become an important source of college financing in the United States. Unlike government student loans, the terms on student loans in the private market are based on credit status. We quantify the importance of the private market for student loans and of credit status for college investment in a general equilibrium heterogeneous life-cycle economy. We find that students with good credit status invest in more college education (compared to those with bad credit status) and that this effect is more pronounced for low-income students. Furthermore, results ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-66

Working Paper
Comparative Advantage and Moonlighting
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Auray, Stéphane (2021-08)
We document three facts: (i) Higher educated workers are more likely to moonlight; (ii) conditional on education, workers with higher wages are less likely to moonlight; and (iii) the prevalence of moonlighting is declining over time for all education groups. We develop an equilibrium model of the labor market to explain these patterns. A dominating income effect explains the negative correlation of moonlighting with productivity in the cross section and the downward trend over time. A higher part-to-full time pay differential for skilled workers (a comparative advantage) explains the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-016

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