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Working Paper
The supply and demand of skilled workers in cities and the role of industry composition
Brinkman, Jeffrey (2014-10-20)
The share of high-skilled workers in U.S. cities is positively correlated with city size, and this correlation strengthened between 1980 and 2010. Furthermore, during the same time period, the U.S. economy experienced a significant structural transformation with regard to industrial composition, most notably in the decline of manufacturing and the rise of high-skilled service industries. To decompose and investigate these trends, this paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers that allows for both industry-specific and skill-specific ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-32

Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Kumar, Anil; Liang, Che-Yuan (2018-08-01)
We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas?allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes?as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as county-level data and the synthetic control approach, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1998 and 2007. We show that our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine-learning. We explore treatment effect heterogeneity ...
Working Papers , Paper 1810

Working Paper
Who counts as employed?: informal work, employment status, and labor market slack
Burke, Mary A.; Bracha, Anat (2016-12-01)
Several recent studies find that as of 2015, a significant share of working-age adults in the United States participates in nonstandard work arrangements. Such arrangements tend to lack long-term employment contracts and are often referred to as ?gig economy? jobs. This paper investigates the implications of nonstandard or ?informal? work for the measurement of employment status and labor market slack. Using original survey data, we find that as of 2015 roughly 37 percent of nonretired U.S. adults participated in some type of informal work, and roughly 20 percent participated in informal ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-29

Working Paper
The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells
Ahn, Hie Joo (2022-03-25)
This paper studies the degree to which observable and unobservable worker characteristics account for the variation in the aggregate duration of unemployment. I model the distribution of unobserved worker heterogeneity as time varying to capture the interaction of latent attributes with changes in labor-market conditions. Unobserved heterogeneity is the main explanation for the duration dependence of unemployment hazards. Both cyclical and low-frequency variations in the mean duration of unemployment are mainly driven by one subgroup: workers who, for unobserved reasons, stay unemployed for a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-063r1

Journal Article
Data Revisions of Aggregate Hours Worked: Implications for the Europe-U.S. Hours Gap
Bick, Alexander; Brüggemann, Bettina; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola (2019)
In this article, we document that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Conference Board?s Total Economy Database (TED) have substantially revised their measures of hours worked over time. Relying on the data used by Rogerson (2006) and Ohanian et al. (2008), we find that, for 2003, hours worked per person in Europe is 18 percent lower than hours worked in the United States. Using the 2016 releases of the same data for 2003 yields a gap that is 40 percent smaller?that is, only 11 percent lower. Using labor force survey data, which are less subject to data ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 1 , Pages 45-56

Working Paper
The Labor Market Impact of a Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam (2020-12-22)
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a central source of U.S. labor market data. We show that, for a few thousand dollars, researchers can quickly design and implement their own online survey to supplement the CPS. The survey closely follows core features of the CPS, ensuring that outcomes are conceptually compatible and allowing researchers to weight and validate results using the official CPS. Yet the survey also allows for faster data collection, added flexibility and novel questions. We show that the survey provided useful estimates of U.S. labor market aggregates several weeks ahead of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2031

Working Paper
The Labor Market Effects of Place-Based Policies: Evidence from England’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund
Jump, Robert Calvert; Scavette, Adam (2022-03-23)
Neighborhood renewal programs are a type of place-based policy that aim to revive underperforming localities. The literature on place-based policies has found mixed results regarding their effects on local labor market outcomes, but there are relatively few studies of policies that aim to improve local labor supply. In this paper, we examine the labor market effects of the Neighbourhood Renewal Fund, which targeted eighty-eight of the most deprived areas in England during the early 2000s as part of the Labour Government's National Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal. The fund disbursed almost ...
Working Paper , Paper 22-02

Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Fallick, Bruce; Foote, Christopher L. (2022-10-01)
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a “shift-share” method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population—the focus of most previous work—and extend the date range of analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-15

Journal Article
Stuck in Part-Time Employment
Willis, Jonathan L. (2017-01-18)
Although the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons has declined, it is unlikely to return to its pre-recession level in the near future.
Macro Bulletin

Discussion Paper
Career Pathways in a Changing Labor Market
Bozarth, Ashley (2018-01-31)
Recently, labor economists, workforce development policy analysts, and workforce development practitioners gathered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to examine the effects of automation and shifting labor demands on the future of work. Presenters included Dan Restuccia of Burning Glass Technologies, Sara Lamback of Jobs for the Future, Daniel Kreisman of Georgia State University, Chad Shearer of the Brookings Institution, Susan Lund of McKinsey Global Institute, and Nancey Green Leigh and Ben Kraft of Georgia Institute of Technology. The researchers collected data from job postings, ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2018-01

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