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Discussion Paper
Where Are Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2019-02-06)
As we outlined in our previous post, the United States lost close to sixmillion manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010 but since then has gained back almost one million. In this post, we take a closer look at the geographic dimension of this modest rebound in manufacturing jobs. While job losses during the 2000s were fairly widespread across the country, manufacturing employment gains since then have been concentrated in particular parts of the country. Indeed, these gains were especially large in ?auto alley??a narrow motor vehicle production corridor stretching from Michigan south to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190206b

Speech
What kind of jobs have been created during the recovery?
Dudley, William (2014-05-21)
Remarks at the Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Speech , Paper 137

Journal Article
Data Revisions of Aggregate Hours Worked: Implications for the Europe-U.S. Hours Gap
Brüggemann, Bettina; Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola (2019)
In this article, we document that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Conference Board?s Total Economy Database (TED) have substantially revised their measures of hours worked over time. Relying on the data used by Rogerson (2006) and Ohanian et al. (2008), we find that, for 2003, hours worked per person in Europe is 18 percent lower than hours worked in the United States. Using the 2016 releases of the same data for 2003 yields a gap that is 40 percent smaller?that is, only 11 percent lower. Using labor force survey data, which are less subject to data ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 1 , Pages 45-56

Journal Article
The rise and fall of labor force participation in the United States
Bullard, James B. (2014)
Monetary policy choices going forward are explicitly tied to labor market performance. Hence, the sharp decline in the labor force participation rate following the 2007-09 recession has become a salient topic.
Review , Volume 96 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-12

Working Paper
The supply and demand of skilled workers in cities and the role of industry composition
Brinkman, Jeffrey (2014-10-20)
The share of high-skilled workers in U.S. cities is positively correlated with city size, and this correlation strengthened between 1980 and 2010. Furthermore, during the same time period, the U.S. economy experienced a significant structural transformation with regard to industrial composition, most notably in the decline of manufacturing and the rise of high-skilled service industries. To decompose and investigate these trends, this paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers that allows for both industry-specific and skill-specific ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-32

Journal Article
Why Labor Force Participation (Usually) Increases when Unemployment Declines
Hornstein, Andreas (2013-01)
Unemployment and labor force participation (LFP) are usually negatively correlated over the business cycle, that is, once the unemployment rate starts to decline the LFP rate starts to increase after about half a year. Using gross flow data on labor market transitions, we show that this cyclical co-movement pattern between the unemployment rate and the LFP rate can be attributed to two factors. First, low unemployment rates imply a low average exit rate from the labor force, which in turn increases the LFP rate. Second, transition rates from out-of-the-labor-force to employment without an ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 1Q , Pages 1-23

Journal Article
A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation
Kudlyak, Marianna (2013-01)
We estimate a trend in the aggregate labor force participation rate using the age-gender and the birth cohort effects in the labor force participation rates of different demographic groups and the actual demographic composition of the population. We find that, in 2012, the aggregate labor force participation rate is close to its trend.
Economic Quarterly , Issue 1Q , Pages 25-43

Report
Labor market exit and re-entry: is the United States poised for a rebound in the labor force participation rate?
Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Cooper, Daniel H. (2014-09-03)
The U.S. labor force participation rate has declined sharply since 2007?far faster than can be explained by demographic shifts in the population. This brief analyzes the re-entry probability for individuals who exit the labor force as well as the financial demographic, and employment characteristics of these individuals. The vast majority of individuals under 45 years of age re-enter the labor market within four years of exiting; however, the re-entry rate drops substantially for 50?54 year-olds and 55?59 year-olds. Those individuals who exit the labor market appear more marginally attached ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-2

Report
Labor force participation in New England vs. the United States, 2007–2015: why was the regional decline more moderate?
Burke, Mary A. (2016-10-01)
This paper identifies the main forces that contributed to the decline in labor force participation in New England between 2007 and 2015, as well as the forces that moderated the region?s decline relative to that of the nation. This exercise contributes to an assessment of the outlook for participation in New England moving forward. Similar to previous findings pertaining to the United States as a whole, the single largest factor in the recent decline in labor force participation in New England was the shifting age composition of the region?s population. In particular, the share of New England ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 16-2

Report
Wage inflation and informal work
Burke, Mary A.; Bracha, Anat (2017-10-01)
Despite very low unemployment in the United States in recent months, wage inflation has remained modest. This paper investigates the possibility that there is hidden labor market slack in the form of informal or gig economy work, which may help explain this wage growth puzzle. Using unique data from 2015 and 2016 that we collected through the Survey of Informal Work Participation ? part of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York?s Survey of Consumer Expectations ? we find indirect and direct evidence for this hypothesis. First, we find that a measure of informal labor is negatively associated ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 18-2

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