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Allocation and Employment Effect of the Paycheck Protection Program
Joaquim, Gustavo (2021-12-21)
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was a large and unprecedented small-business support program enacted as a response to the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. The PPP administered almost $800 billion in loans and grants to small businesses through the banking system. However, there is still limited consensus on its overall effect on employment. This paper explores why it is challenging to estimate the effect of the PPP. To do so, we first focus on the timing of the allocation of PPP funds across regions and firms. Counties less affected by COVID-19 and with a larger presence of ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Discussion Paper
Racial Disparities in the Labor Market
Bozarth, Ashley (2018-02-28)
Current research tells us that racial gaps in wages, employment, and labor participation have widened over recent decades. Many factors contribute to these disparities, including difficult to measure dynamics like discrimination, criminal conviction history, and skills gaps.
Workforce Currents , Paper 2018-02

Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Fallick, Bruce; Foote, Christopher L. (2022-10-01)
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a “shift-share” method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population—the focus of most previous work—and extend the date range of analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-15

Working Paper
Employment Dynamics in a Signaling Model with Workers' Incentives
Weingarden, Alison E. (2017-04)
Many firms adjust employment in a "lumpy" manner -- infrequently and in large bursts. In this paper, I show that lumpy adjustments can arise from concerns about the incentives of remaining workers. Specifically, I develop a model in which a firm's productivity depends on its workers' effort and workers' income prospects depend on the firm's profitability. I use this model to analyze the consequences of demand shocks that are observed by the firm but not by its workers, who can only try to infer the firm's profitability from its employment decisions. I show that the resulting signaling model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-040

Discussion Paper
Where Are Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2019-02-06)
As we outlined in our previous post, the United States lost close to sixmillion manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010 but since then has gained back almost one million. In this post, we take a closer look at the geographic dimension of this modest rebound in manufacturing jobs. While job losses during the 2000s were fairly widespread across the country, manufacturing employment gains since then have been concentrated in particular parts of the country. Indeed, these gains were especially large in ?auto alley??a narrow motor vehicle production corridor stretching from Michigan south to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190206b

Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Kumar, Anil; Liang, Che-Yuan (2019-05-16)
We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as micro data and the synthetic control approach, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1998 and 2007. We show that our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine learning. We explore treatment effect heterogeneity ...
Working Papers , Paper 1810

Journal Article
Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?
Tuzemen, Didem (2018-01)
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men (age 25 to 54) has declined dramatically in the United States since the 1960s, but the decline accelerated more recently. In 1996, 4.6 million prime-age men did not participate in the labor force. By 2016, this number had risen to 7.1 million. Better understanding these men and the personal situations preventing them from working may be crucial in evaluating whether they are likely to return to the labor force. {{p}} Didem Tzemen documents changes in the nonparticipation rates of prime-age men with different demographic characteristics as ...
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 5-30

Journal Article
Labor Market May Remain Tight until Labor Demand Cools Further
Tuzemen, Didem (2022-10-21)
U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 21, 2022 , Pages 4

Report
Can Treatment with Medications for Opioid Use Disorder Improve Employment Prospects? Evidence from Rhode Island Medicaid Enrollees
Burke, Mary A.; Sullivan, Riley (2022-12-01)
The nation’s long-standing crisis of opioid abuse intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic, with opioid-related deaths rising to nearly 81,000 in 2021, an increase of more than 60 percent from just two years earlier. Also during the pandemic, the labor force participation rate in the United States fell precipitously, and as of September 2022 it remained depressed by more than a full percentage point relative to its February 2020 level despite record numbers of job openings in 2021 and 2022. The unfortunate confluence of labor shortages and record-setting opioid mortality highlights the need ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 22-3

Working Paper
Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses
Wilson, Daniel J. (2017-09-26)
This paper exploits vast granular data – with over one million county-month observations – to estimate a dynamic panel data model of weather’s local employment effects. The fitted county model is then aggregated and used to generate in-sample and rolling out-of-sample (“nowcast”) estimates of the weather effect on national monthly employment. These nowcasts, which use only employment and weather data available prior to a given employment report, are significantly predictive not only of the surprise component of employment reports but also of stock and bond market returns on the days ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-13

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