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Journal Article
Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the COVID-19 Shock
Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim); Park, Minsung; Shin, Yongseok (2021-10-18)
The destructive economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was distributed unequally across the population. A worker's gender, race and ethnicity, age, education, industry, and occupation all mattered. We analyze the initial negative effect and its lingering effect through the recovery phase, across demographic and socioeconomic groups. The initial negative impact on employment was larger for women, minorities, the less educated, and the young whether or not we account for the industries and occupations they worked in. By February 2021, however, the differential effects across groups had gotten ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 367-383

Working Paper
Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market
Zhang, Calvin; Li, Zhimin; Shen, Leslie Sheng (2020-06-30)
We study the effects of foreign real estate capital flows on local asset prices and employment using detailed housing transactions data. We document (i) a "China shock" in the U.S. real estate market after 2007 driven by the Chinese government's house purchase restrictions and (ii) "home bias" in foreign Chinese housing purchases in the United States as they are concentrated in ZIP codes historically populated by ethnic Chinese. Exploiting the quasi-random temporal and spatial variation of real estate capital inflows from China, we find that foreign Chinese housing purchases have a positive ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1286

Discussion Paper
Early Childhood Education and the Economy
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2019-01-08)
A child's first few years provide a strong foundation for future development. Early childhood education programs can increase future labor force productivity, decrease societal costs, and ultimately lead to a stronger economy.
Workforce Currents , Paper 2019-01

Working Paper
Hysteresis in Employment among Disadvantaged Workers
Krolikowski, Pawel; Fallick, Bruce (2018-02-06)
We examine hysteresis in employment-to-population ratios among less-educated men using state-level data. Results from dynamic panel regressions indicate a moderate degree of hysteresis: The effects of past employment rates on subsequent employment rates can be substantial but essentially dissipate within three years. This finding is robust to a number of variations. We find no substantial asymmetry in the persistence of high vs. low employment rates. The cumulative effect of hysteresis in the business cycle surrounding the 2001 recession was mildly positive, while the effect in the cycle ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1801

Working Paper
Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics
Ahn, Hie Joo; Hamilton, James D. (2016-02-22)
This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in this literature, we develop a complete dynamic statistical model that allows us to measure the contribution of different shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We find that changes in the inflows of newly unemployed are the key driver of economic recessions and identify an ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-12

Discussion Paper
Racial Disparities in the Labor Market
Bozarth, Ashley (2018-02-28)
Current research tells us that racial gaps in wages, employment, and labor participation have widened over recent decades. Many factors contribute to these disparities, including difficult to measure dynamics like discrimination, criminal conviction history, and skills gaps.
Workforce Currents , Paper 2018-02

Working Paper
Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers
Krolikowski, Pawel; Fallick, Bruce (2019-08-30)
We examine persistence in employment-to-population ratios in excess of that implied by persistence in aggregate labor market conditions, among less-educated individuals using state-level data for the United States. Dynamic panel regressions and local projections indicate a moderate degree of excess persistence, which dissipates within three years. We find no significant asymmetry between the excess persistence of high vs. low employment rates. The cumulative effect of excess persistence in the business cycle surrounding the 2001 recession was mildly positive, while the effect in the cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-01R

Working Paper
Oligopsonies over the Business Cycle
Pinheiro, Roberto; Monte, Daniel (2020-02-27)
With a duopsony model, we show how the degree of labor market slack relates to earnings inequality and firm size distribution across local labor markets and the business cycle. In booms, due to the high aggregate productivity, there is fierce competition with resulting high wages and full employment. During recessions, there is labor market slack and firms enjoy local market power. In periods in which the economy is moving in or out of a recession, there is an “accommodation” phase, with firms shrinking their labor forces and paying lower wages instead of competing for poached workers. We ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-06

Working Paper
The Labor Market Impact of a Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam (2020-12-22)
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a central source of U.S. labor market data. We show that, for a few thousand dollars, researchers can quickly design and implement their own online survey to supplement the CPS. The survey closely follows core features of the CPS, ensuring that outcomes are conceptually compatible and allowing researchers to weight and validate results using the official CPS. Yet the survey also allows for faster data collection, added flexibility and novel questions. We show that the survey provided useful estimates of U.S. labor market aggregates several weeks ahead of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2031

Working Paper
The Evolution of Technological Substitution in Low-Wage Labor Markets
Phelan, Brian J.; Aaronson, Daniel (2020-07-14)
This paper uses minimum wage hikes to evaluate the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that automation is accelerating and supplanting a broader set of low-wage routine jobs in the decade since the Financial Crisis. Simultaneously, low-wage interpersonal jobs are increasing and offsetting routine job loss. However, interpersonal job growth does not appear to be enough – as it was previous to the Financial Crisis – to fully offset the negative effects of automation on low-wage routine jobs. Employment losses are most evident among minority workers ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-16

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