Search Results
Working Paper
The Anatomy of Financial Vulnerabilities and Crises
Lee, Seung Jung; Posenau, Kelly E.; Stebunovs, Viktors
(2017-02)
We extend the framework used in Aikman, Kiley, Lee, Palumbo, and Warusawitharana (2015) that maps vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system to a broader set of advanced and emerging economies. Our extension tracks a broader set of vulnerabilities and, therefore, captures signs of different types of crises. The typical anatomy of the evolution of vulnerabilities before and after a financial crisis is as follows. Pressures in asset valuations materialize, and a build-up of imbalances in the external, financial, and nonfinancial sectors follows. A financial crisis is typically followed by a ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1191
Report
The first debt ceiling crisis
Garbade, Kenneth D.
(2016-06-01)
In the second half of 1953 the United States, for the first time, risked exceeding the statutory limit on Treasury debt. This paper describes how Congress, the White House, and Treasury officials dealt with the looming crisis?by deferring and reducing expenditures, monetizing ?free? gold that remained from the devaluation of the dollar in 1934, and, ultimately, raising the debt ceiling.
Staff Reports
, Paper 783
Journal Article
COVID-19: Fiscal Implications and Financial Stability in Developing Countries
Grittayaphong, Praew; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina
(2023-07-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic has been unlike any other crisis that we have experienced in that it hit all economies in the world at the same time, compromising the risk-sharing ability of nations. At the onset of the pandemic, the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) jointly pledged 1.16 trillion U.S. dollars to help emerging economies deal with COVID-19. Would this amount have been enough to preserve financial stability in a worst case scenario, and what were the fiscal implications of the pandemic? In this article we aim to answer these questions by documenting the size of the ...
Review
, Volume 105
, Issue 3
, Pages 137-149
Journal Article
U.S. Federal Debt Has Increased, but Appears Sustainable for Now
Bi, Huixin; Yang, Shu-Chun S.; Shen, Wenyi
(2020-11-16)
The unprecedented fiscal stimulus packages that Congress passed earlier this year provided timely assistance to households and businesses, but also led to a sharp increase in U.S. federal government debt. We find that the current net federal debt level of about 100 percent of GDP does not pose a threat to fiscal sustainability. Over a longer horizon, debt sustainability will depend, to a large extent, on whether the federal government can curb mandatory spending or raise taxes.
Economic Bulletin
Working Paper
Optimal Time-Consistent Taxation with Default
Karantounias, Anastasios G.
(2017-11-01)
We study optimal time-consistent distortionary taxation when the repayment of government debt is not enforceable. The government taxes labor income or issues noncontingent debt in order to finance an exogenous stream of stochastic government expenditures. The government can repudiate its debt subject to some default costs, thereby introducing some state-contingency to debt. We are motivated by the fact that domestic sovereign default is an empirically relevant phenomenon, as Reinhart and Rogoff (2011) demonstrated. Optimal policy is characterized by two opposing incentives: an incentive to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2017-12
Working Paper
Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis
Sangiacomo, Maximo; D'Erasmo, Pablo; Pia Olivero, Maria; Moscoso Boedo, Herman J.
(2019-10-29)
We study how banks? exposure to a sovereign crisis gets transmitted onto the corporate sector. To do so we use data on the universe of banks and ?rms in Argentina during the crisis of 2001. We build a model characterized by matching frictions in which ?rms establish (long-term) relationships with banks that are subject to balance sheet disruptions. Credit relationships with banks more exposed to the crisis su?er the most. However, this relationship-level e?ect overstates the true cost of the crisis since profitable ?rms (e.g., exporters after a devaluation) might ?nd it optimal to switch ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-43
Working Paper
Duration of Capital Market Exclusion: An Empirical Investigation
Dias, Daniel A.; Richmond, Christine; Westfahl, Grant
(2024-12-06)
This paper investigates the duration of market exclusion following a sovereign default and its resolution. We employ multiple definitions of market access, differentiating between gross versus net borrowing and partial versus full access, to measure the time it takes for countries to regain entry into international capital markets following a sovereign default and resolution. Our findings indicate that market re-access can occur immediately under less stringent definitions but may take several years when more demanding criteria are applied. Middle-income countries typically regain access more ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2024-093
Working Paper
Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
Sosa-Padilla, César; Yom, Zeynep; Hur, Sewon
(2024-02-27)
We study optimal bailout policies amidst banking and sovereign crises. Our model features sovereign borrowing with limited commitment, where domestic banks hold government debt and extend credit to the private sector. Bank capital shocks can trigger banking crises, prompting the government to consider extending guarantees over bank assets. This poses a trade-off: Larger bailouts relax financial frictions and increase output, but increase fiscal needs and default risk (creating a ‘diabolic loop’). Optimal bailouts exhibit clear properties. The fraction of banking losses the bailouts cover ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 406
Working Paper
Doubts about the Model and Optimal Policy
Karantounias, Anastasios G.
(2020-07-31)
This paper analyzes optimal policy in setups where both the leader and the follower have doubts about the probability model of uncertainty. I illustrate the methodology in two environments: a) an industry populated with a large firm and many small firms in a competitive fringe, where both types of firms doubt the probability model of demand shocks, and b) a general equilibrium economy, where a policymaker taxes linearly the labor income of a representative household in order to finance an exogenous stream of stochastic spending shocks. The policymaker can distrust the probability model of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2020-12
Working Paper
The (Unintended?) Consequences of the Largest Liquidity Injection Ever
Crosignani, Matteo; Fonseca, Luis; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel
(2017-01)
We study the design of lender of last resort interventions and show that the provision of long-term liquidity incentivizes purchases of high-yield short-term securities by banks. Using a unique security-level data set, we find that the European Central Bank?s three-year Long-Term Refinancing Operation incentivized Portuguese banks to purchase short-term domestic government bonds that could be pledged to obtain central bank liquidity. This "collateral trade" effect is large, as banks purchased short-term bonds equivalent to 8.4% of amount outstanding. The resumption of public debt issuance ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-011
FILTER BY year
FILTER BY Bank
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 17 items
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 13 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 7 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 5 items
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 3 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 2 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 1 items
show more (7)
show less
FILTER BY Series
Working Papers 13 items
Staff Reports 11 items
Finance and Economics Discussion Series 9 items
Globalization Institute Working Papers 7 items
FRB Atlanta Working Paper 6 items
International Finance Discussion Papers 6 items
Staff Report 5 items
Economic Policy Review 2 items
Federal Reserve Bulletin 2 items
Policy Hub 2 items
Review 2 items
Working Paper Series 2 items
Chicago Fed Letter 1 items
Economic Bulletin 1 items
Economic Review 1 items
Working Paper 1 items
Working Papers (Old Series) 1 items
show more (12)
show less
FILTER BY Content Type
Working Paper 45 items
Report 16 items
Journal Article 9 items
Discussion Paper 1 items
Newsletter 1 items
FILTER BY Author
Garbade, Kenneth D. 7 items
Karantounias, Anastasios G. 7 items
Erce, Aitor 6 items
D'Erasmo, Pablo 4 items
Fleming, Michael J. 4 items
Mallucci, Enrico 4 items
Abbassi, Puriya 3 items
Crosignani, Matteo 3 items
Hur, Sewon 3 items
Iyer, Rajkamal 3 items
Keane, Frank M. 3 items
Kehoe, Timothy J. 3 items
Mendoza, Enrique G. 3 items
Peydró, José-Luis 3 items
Soto, Paul E. 3 items
Barone, Jordan 2 items
Bassetto, Marco 2 items
Bi, Huixin 2 items
Cashin, David B. 2 items
Chaboud, Alain P. 2 items
Copeland, Adam 2 items
Dias, Daniel A. 2 items
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel 2 items
Ferris, Erin E. Syron 2 items
Fonseca, Luis 2 items
Grittayaphong, Praew 2 items
Kavoussi, Cullen 2 items
Kehoe, Patrick J. 2 items
Klee, Elizabeth C. 2 items
Nicolini, Juan Pablo 2 items
Perri, Fabrizio 2 items
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina 2 items
Richmond, Christine 2 items
Sack, Brian P. 2 items
Searls, Seth 2 items
Sosa-Padilla, César 2 items
Wright, Mark L. J. 2 items
Yom, Zeynep 2 items
Arellano, Cristina 1 items
Athanasopoulou, Marialena 1 items
Ayres, Joao Luiz 1 items
Bai, Yan 1 items
Balteanu, Irina 1 items
Benjamin, David 1 items
Bertaut, Carol C. 1 items
Braun, R. Anton 1 items
Calomiris, Charles W. 1 items
Carpinelli, Luisa 1 items
Chatterjee, Satyajit 1 items
Cheng, Gong 1 items
Consiglio, Andrea 1 items
Croce, Mariano 1 items
De Ferra, Sergio 1 items
Debortoli, Davide 1 items
Diaz-Cassou, Javier 1 items
Dupont, Dominique 1 items
Esquivel, Carlos 1 items
Eyigungor, Burcu 1 items
Ferrière, Axelle 1 items
Galli, Carlo 1 items
Garcia, Marcio 1 items
Gavilan, Angel 1 items
Gennaro Caracciolo, Gherardo 1 items
Glasserman, Paul 1 items
Grant, Everett 1 items
Griever, William L. 1 items
Guillen, Diogo 1 items
Gutkowski, Violeta A. 1 items
Gürkaynak, Refet S. 1 items
Joines, Douglas H. 1 items
Kondo, Illenin O. 1 items
Lee, Seung Jung 1 items
Lopez, Pierlauro 1 items
Machicado, Carlos Gustavo 1 items
Mateos-Planas, Xavier 1 items
Moscoso Boedo, Herman J. 1 items
Moshammer, Edmund 1 items
Nunes, Ricardo 1 items
Palacios, Santiago I. Sordo 1 items
Patel, Ketan B. 1 items
Peres-Cajías, José 1 items
Phan, Toan 1 items
Pia Olivero, Maria 1 items
Picarelli, Mattia 1 items
Plante, Michael D. 1 items
Posenau, Kelly E. 1 items
Pouzo, Demian 1 items
Presno, Ignacio 1 items
Raymond, Stephen 1 items
Richter, Alexander W. 1 items
Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor 1 items
Saggar, Seema 1 items
Sangiacomo, Maximo 1 items
Sareen, Samita 1 items
Sargent, Thomas J. 1 items
Schmid, Lukas 1 items
Schwartzman, Felipe 1 items
Shen, Wenyi 1 items
Sirohi, Amit 1 items
Stebunovs, Viktors 1 items
Stevens, Cailey 1 items
Tryon, Ralph W. 1 items
Westfahl, Grant 1 items
Wright, Jonathan H. 1 items
Yang, Shu-Chun S. 1 items
Yared, Pierre 1 items
Zenios, Stavros A. 1 items
Zhang, Allen 1 items
Zubairy, Sarah 1 items
show more (104)
show less
FILTER BY Jel Classification
F34 21 items
E62 16 items
G28 10 items
E58 9 items
G01 9 items
G12 9 items
G21 9 items
H21 9 items
E44 7 items
E63 7 items
F41 7 items
E32 6 items
G15 6 items
D80 5 items
E43 5 items
E52 5 items
N22 5 items
G14 4 items
H62 4 items
E31 3 items
E6 3 items
E65 3 items
F44 3 items
H12 3 items
L51 3 items
N16 3 items
C61 2 items
D52 2 items
E42 2 items
G11 2 items
G18 2 items
G23 2 items
H30 2 items
H84 2 items
C60 1 items
C63 1 items
C73 1 items
C78 1 items
C82 1 items
D11 1 items
D14 1 items
D61 1 items
D8 1 items
D84 1 items
D90 1 items
E01 1 items
E21 1 items
E3 1 items
E47 1 items
E50 1 items
E51 1 items
F21 1 items
F30 1 items
F33 1 items
F36 1 items
F40 1 items
F45 1 items
F53 1 items
G32 1 items
G38 1 items
H50 1 items
H51 1 items
H55 1 items
H75 1 items
H81 1 items
H87 1 items
J32 1 items
K00 1 items
K41 1 items
N26 1 items
O3 1 items
P16 1 items
Q54 1 items
show more (69)
show less
FILTER BY Keywords
sovereign defaults 7 items
Sovereign default 5 items
COVID-19 4 items
ambiguity aversion 4 items
multiplier preferences 4 items
Asset quality review 3 items
Corporate real effects from bank credit 3 items
Costs of safe assets 3 items
Fiscal policy 3 items
Lender of Last Resort 3 items
Monetary policy 3 items
Risk-masking 3 items
Stress tests 3 items
Supervision 3 items
austerity 3 items
competitive fringe 3 items
debt management 3 items
fiscal policy 3 items
government debt 3 items
labor tax 3 items
misspecification 3 items
public debt 3 items
sovereign debts 3 items
Bailouts 2 items
Banking crisis 2 items
Conditional Transfers 2 items
Debt 2 items
Debt crisis 2 items
Domestic Debt 2 items
European crisis 2 items
Liquidity 2 items
Model uncertainty 2 items
Off-budget transfers 2 items
Public debt 2 items
Sovereign Debt 2 items
Sovereign Default 2 items
Sovereign-bank diabolic loop 2 items
Treasury debt management 2 items
Treasury market 2 items
U.S. Treasury 2 items
Unconventional Monetary Policy 2 items
debt crisis 2 items
financial crisis 2 items
fiscal deficits 2 items
fiscal limits 2 items
interest rates 2 items
martingale 2 items
open market operations 2 items
paternalism 2 items
pessimistic expectations 2 items
sovereign bond markets 2 items
sovereign debt restructuring 2 items
taxation 2 items
Auctions 1 items
Bank Credit Supply 1 items
Bank Wholesale Funding 1 items
Bank networks 1 items
Bank-Sovereign Nexus 1 items
Banking Crises 1 items
Banking crises 1 items
Bargaining 1 items
Bid-ask spread 1 items
Bolivia 1 items
Brazil hyperinflation 1 items
Brazil stagnation 1 items
Collateral 1 items
Continuous Solutions 1 items
Credit 1 items
Credit-to-GDP gap 1 items
Crisis management 1 items
Currency Denomination 1 items
Currency crises 1 items
Database 1 items
Debt Crises 1 items
Debt Limit 1 items
Debt accounting 1 items
Debt crises 1 items
Debt limit 1 items
Debt restructuring 1 items
Default 1 items
Default episodes 1 items
Default risk 1 items
Delay 1 items
Devaluation 1 items
Discount 1 items
Domestic law 1 items
Early warning system 1 items
Emerging markets 1 items
Epstein-Zin 1 items
Epstein-Zin preferences 1 items
European debt crisis 1 items
Eurozone 1 items
Eurozone Crisis 1 items
External Debt 1 items
Federal Reserve 1 items
Federal debt 1 items
Financial contagion 1 items
Financial crises 1 items
Financial vulnerabilities 1 items
Fiscal deficit 1 items
Fiscal stimulus 1 items
Fiscal sustainability 1 items
Fiscal theory of the price level 1 items
Globalization 1 items
Government Debt 1 items
Government debt 1 items
Government expenditures 1 items
Government securities 1 items
Hyperinflation 1 items
Imports 1 items
Incomplete markets 1 items
India 1 items
Inflation 1 items
Inflation compensation 1 items
Information sensitivity of debt 1 items
International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1 items
International capital markets 1 items
Investments, Foreign 1 items
Issue size 1 items
Japan 1 items
Lotteries 1 items
Macroprudential policy 1 items
Market access 1 items
Markov Perfect Equilibrium 1 items
Markov-perfect equilibrium 1 items
Monetary union 1 items
Monetary/fiscal interaction 1 items
Money premium 1 items
Official debt 1 items
Optimal taxation 1 items
Paris Club 1 items
Pigouvian taxes 1 items
Political uncertainty 1 items
Public enterprises 1 items
Quasi-geometric 1 items
Quasi-hyperbolic 1 items
R&D investment 1 items
Ramsey plans 1 items
Ramsey taxation 1 items
Risk premia 1 items
Securities 1 items
Selective Defaults 1 items
Sovereign contagion 1 items
Sovereign debt 1 items
Sovereign risk 1 items
Stabilization plans 1 items
Stocks 1 items
Survival analysis 1 items
TARGET2 1 items
Time consistency 1 items
Trading volume 1 items
Treasury Market 1 items
Treasury auctions 1 items
Treasury bills 1 items
Treasury debt issuance 1 items
Treasury securities 1 items
Treasury yields 1 items
World Bank 1 items
Yield curve 1 items
advance refundings 1 items
aging 1 items
auctions 1 items
bailouts 1 items
balanced budget 1 items
bank crises 1 items
banking crises 1 items
banks 1 items
beliefs 1 items
benchmark 1 items
capital tax 1 items
climate change 1 items
conditional Value-at-Risk 1 items
credit markets 1 items
debt ceiling 1 items
debt financing 1 items
debt maturity 1 items
default 1 items
demand uncertainty 1 items
developing countries 1 items
direct purchases 1 items
disasters 1 items
domestic nominal debt 1 items
emerging markets 1 items
endogenous growth 1 items
excess burden 1 items
federal debt 1 items
federal deficit 1 items
financial economics 1 items
fiscal consolidation 1 items
fiscal dominance 1 items
fiscal insurance 1 items
generalized Euler equation 1 items
global banks 1 items
global cycles 1 items
government 1 items
government bonds 1 items
government deficits 1 items
growth 1 items
inflation 1 items
inflation risks 1 items
innovation 1 items
international business cycles 1 items
intertemporal elasticity of substitution 1 items
liquidity 1 items
long run risk 1 items
long-term bonds 1 items
long-term debt 1 items
maturity structure of debt 1 items
model uncertainty 1 items
monetization of gold 1 items
monopolist 1 items
optimal taxation 1 items
optimization 1 items
profit tax 1 items
public consumption 1 items
quadratic programming 1 items
recursive utility 1 items
rescue packages 1 items
reserve asset 1 items
risk measures 1 items
robustness 1 items
scenario analyses 1 items
sovereign debt 1 items
sovereign default 1 items
stochastic programming 1 items
subsidy 1 items
sustainability 1 items
tax smoothing 1 items
term premium 1 items
time-consistency 1 items
trading activity 1 items
uncertainty 1 items
yield curve management 1 items
show more (228)
show less