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Working Paper
Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment
Trezzi, Riccardo; Surico, Paolo (2015-07-27)
A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the effects of property taxes on consumer spending. A tax on the main dwelling leads to large expenditure cuts among households with mortgage debt and low liquid wealth but generates only small revenues for the government. In contrast, higher tax rates on other residential properties reduce private savings and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-57

Working Paper
Assessment Frequency and Equity of the Real Property Tax: Latest Evidence from Philadelphia
Hou, Yulin; Ding, Lei; Schwegman, David; Barca, Alaina (2021-12-08)
Philadelphia’s Actual Value Initiative, adopted in 2013, createsa unique opportunity for us to test whether reassessments at short intervals to true market value and taxing by such values improve equity. Based on a difference-in-differences framework using parcel-level data matched with transactions in Philadelphia and 15 comparable cities, this study finds positive evidence on equity outcomes from more regular revaluations. The quality of assessment, as measured by the coefficient of dispersion, improves substantially after 2014, although the extent of improvement varies across ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-43

Working Paper
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Karabarbounis, Marios; Mehkari, M. Saif; Dupor, Bill; Kudlyak, Marianna (2018-02-20)
We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. Our model successfully generates the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-4

Working Paper
The Household Expenditure Response to a Consumption Tax Rate Increase
Cashin, David B. (2017-03-28)
This study measures the effect of an increase in Japan's Value Added Tax rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The analysis finds that durable and storable expenditures surged in the month prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply upon implementation, but quickly returned to their previous long-run levels. Non-storable non-durable expenditures increased slightly in the month prior to the tax rate increase, but were otherwise unresponsive. A dynamic structural model of household consumption reveals that the observed expenditure ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-035

Working Paper
The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s
Yang, Fang; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Borella, Margherita (2019-03-18)
White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 19

Working Paper
Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income?
Kumar, Anil (2017-10-01)
Almost all recent literature on Medicaid and labor supply has used Affordable Care Act (ACA)-induced Medicaid eligibility expansions in various states as natural experiments. Estimated effects on employment and earnings differ widely due to differences in the scope of eligibility expansion across states and are potentially subject to biases due to policy endogeneity. Using a Regression Kink Design (RKD) framework, this paper takes a uniquely different approach to the identification of the effect of Medicaid generosity on household income. Both state-level data and March CPS data from ...
Working Papers , Paper 1709

Working Paper
Proxy SVARs: Asymptotic Theory, Bootstrap Inference, and the Effects of Income Tax Changes in the United States
Jentsch, Carsen; Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2016-07-19)
Proxy structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions (VARs) with external proxy variables that are correlated with the structural shocks of interest but uncorrelated with other structural shocks. We provide asymptotic theory for proxy SVARs when the VAR innovations and proxy variables are jointly ?-mixing. We also prove the asymptotic validity of a residual-based moving block bootstrap (MBB) for inference on statistics that depend jointly on estimators for the VAR coefficients and for covariances of the VAR innovations and proxy variables. These ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1619

Working Paper
Cyclical Labor Income Risk
Nakajima, Makoto; Smirnyagin, Vladimir (2019-09-16)
We investigate cyclicality of variance and skewness of household labor income risk using PSID data. There are five main findings. First, we find that head?s labor income exhibits countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness. Second, the cyclicality of hourly wages is muted, suggesting that head?s labor income risk is mainly coming from the volatility of hours. Third, younger households face stronger cyclicality of income volatility than older ones, although the level of volatility is lower for the younger ones. Fourth, while a second earner helps lower the level of skewness, it does not ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-34

Working Paper
How do exogenous shocks cause bankruptcy? Balance sheet and income statement channels
Scholnick, Barry; Mikhed, Vyacheslav (2014-05-01)
We are the first to examine whether exogenous shocks cause personal bankruptcy through the balance sheet channel and/or the income statement channel. For identification, we examine the effect of exogenous, politically motivated government payments on 200,000 Canadian bankruptcy filings. We find support for the balance sheet channel, in that receipt of the exogenous cash increases the net balance sheet benefits of bankruptcy (unsecured debt discharged minus liquidated assets forgone) required by filers. We also find limited support for the income statement channel, in that exogenous payments ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-17

Working Paper
Whose Child Is This? Shifting of Dependents Among EITC Claimants Within the Same Household
Splinter, David; Mortenson, Jacob; Larrimore, Jeff (2017-08-22)
Using a panel of household level tax data, we estimate the degree to which dependents are "reassigned" between tax units within households, and how these reassignments affect combined tax liabilities. Reassigning dependents reduces combined tax liabilities on average, suggesting some household level coordination. Additionally, when EITC benefits expanded in 2009, reassignments increasingly involved adding a third child to tax returns to claim these new benefits. However, the subgroup reassigning towards three child tax units actually increased total household tax liabilities, suggesting ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-089

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